OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Waltzing]

harping and barking on...a balanced portfolio... well B and M , plus Soros often say go for the Jugular....

sell this puppy now if you can...take your lumps or your bones... spit them out ....

[winner69]

Mav's forecast Underlying NPAT is 58.6m or EPS 8.4 cents (Forbar story implies 7.0 cents)

That EPS is much the same as May 2018

Share price in Feb 2018 was 98 cents

So no earnings growth in 4 years suppose going sub $1 seems about right - and I'm sure sentiment around OCA is less favourable now than waht it was back then so sub 90c is on cards

Bit spooky eh

[Waltzing]

cash em and trash em...a short then...never get emotional about a stock they say...

[Antipodean]

EDIT:Nevermind got the calculations wrong way around

[Beagle]

At least with this ugly mange infested mutt, you get a decent discount to NTA unlike all the other mutts in this trashed sector.

[Waltzing]

oh dumpster diving....

sniffing about in the trash....

whats that sound ....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjSpO2B6G4s

[dompf]

At least with this ugly mange infested mutt, you get a decent discount to NTA unlike all the other mutts in this trashed sector.

Long term this sector will bounce back big time.

Too many people retiring with lots of money.

Sad to see it in such a rut and itÂ’s all of the providers in NZ and there maybe more to come; weÂ’ll at least until borders open up so actual labour can come in and covid has a lid on it which is anyones guess maybe it isnÂ’t anytime soon.

Good buying in front though I reckon - good companies will always be good companies.

[Beagle]

Should be good long term buying at around the IPO price of 79 cents if its get down there otherwise I am happy to run with my modest free carry stake. I think there have been many disappointments since this listed nearly 5 years ago, not the least of which is watching staff and management eat ALL the gains so far from the business transformation process. Maybe shareholders will get some crumbs left over in due course but that's not this financial year and maybe not next year either in my opinion.

[Playa]

holding any is too many at this stage

[bottomfeeder]

Amazing how the sentiment just gets trashed when the shareprice is oversold. It seems to be standard psychological fare, that as the SP gets hammered, the doomsayers come out of the woodwork with talk of the SP getting down past 80 cents, soon it will be receivership and perhaps closing down altogether. We know that they have a fixed loan of 100 million at 3.3 percent for five years. We know that the official inflation rate is close to 6% as well the real inflation rate must be closer to 9%. Second hand buildings values follow the costs of new builds. It has been suggested the building inflation index is closer to 12 percent. So I see that OCA looks quite well placed to succeed quite well once these valuations take effect.

Mind you at $1-06 my total holding has just made break even, any further drops and I will be in loss making territory, so disappointment with the company is understandable. But I believe that recovery will come back over the next twelve months.

Even after the crash of 1929, those that bought the right shares, at the right price, were rewarded as the SP's recovered after two or three years plus more.

Again, no one know the future or what is around the corner, as well Covid has added an extra unknown variable. But for the life of me I dont know how AIA has maintained its SP.