OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[BlackPeter]

Thanks Waltzing, it feels prudent.
You're quite right about the geopolitical situation in Europe and might I add, it was well called by you about a year ago, so well done to you Sir !
We're already seeing record fuel prices in N.Z. as a direct result of this which is fueling inflation and hurting virtually all companies on the NZX. As for a possible invasion having no effect on share prices...hmmm, some people might be in for a shock !
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/14/i...ion/index.html

Fair enough. I sometimes forget that not everybody here is an investor ... hey the forum is called "sharetrader" for a reason!

So yes - IF Putin shoots back (a la good old Adolf) and his tanks start rolling, THEN no doubt most indices will drop - for days or weeks. Great opportunities for traders IF they get the timing right.

I doubt however that we will see in three months from an attack still a big dent in the indices ... unless this turns into a full blown world war ...

If it does turn into something big, then it well might take a year or so for stocks to recover (that's the time they needed in WW II). Still - I think that OCA would be one of the less impacted stocks from a potential war in Europe. Obviously - this has nothing to do with the current depression of all retirement stocks ... it is not just Putin worrying investors.

[winner69]

Fair enough. I sometimes forget that not everybody here is an investor ... hey the forum is called "sharetrader" for a reason!

So yes - IF Putin shoots back (a la good old Adolf) and his tanks start rolling, THEN no doubt most indices will drop - for days or weeks. Great opportunities for traders IF they get the timing right.

I doubt however that we will see in three months from an attack still a big dent in the indices ... unless this turns into a full blown world war ...

If it does turn into something big, then it well might take a year or so for stocks to recover (that's the time they needed in WW II). Still - I think that OCA would be one of the less impacted stocks from a potential war in Europe. Obviously - this has nothing to do with the current depression of all retirement stocks ... it is not just Putin worrying investors.

Took 2 years, that's the time they needed in WW II).

Hey BP …you have a great memory for an old bugger …suppose you were a young trader back in those days

[iceman]

Feel free to share that list, Waltz. Almost a couple of years ago, Beagle had his Covid crash shopping list with target prices...that was fun.

Anyway, decided today that I'd sell a few of my HLG on the bounce and redivert some of that cash to a trodden down OCA. Sold 2 thirds of the OCA last year at about 1.30 and feel 1.06 is a pretty good price to add a few back to the collection, will DCA if it continues to drop.

Yes I remember that and recently looked at it. He's back into 70% cash right now, less than 2 years later. . Some people are short term traders and pay tax accordingly, others invest for long term income and capital growth. I sold 3/4 of my small OCA holding in the last 2-4 months realising 150-200% gains.I have no idea what is a good strategy for the next couple of years, but am 90% invested in the market. Cash is not for me.

[ralph]

Anyway, decided today that I'd sell a few of my HLG on the bounce and redivert some of that cash to a trodden down OCA. Sold 2 thirds of the OCA last year at about 1.30 and feel 1.06 is a pretty good price to add a few back to the collection, will DCA if it continues to drop.

Bounced back off 1.050 mayhap its bottomed will it reach One dollar at all ,did you add a few to the collection Cyclical at the bottom !

[Beagle]

Interesting times for this sector. It feels like OCA has been singled out by the market for special treatment, probably because its trading at a material discount to NAV and my perception is coloured with some bias as I'm still holding a six figure stake but the truth is the market in the last 6 months or so has been very tough on all sector participants.
As at close of market today all the sector shares have fallen heavily in the last six months from a high to the current price as follows:-

ARV down 24.2%
SUM down 28.0%
OCA down 31.5%
RYM down 42.3%

There's no way to sugar coat this, its been a really ugly time for this sector and its really hard to say how much further it could fall.

For mine, the only stock I would be prepared to pay a modest premium to NTA for in the current environment based on their track record is SUM, but I am happy to wait as long as it takes for TA to show it has bottomed out in this downtrend. I made the call, (against fairly widespread pushback by others), many years ago when SUM was half the share price of RYM that one day SUM's share price would exceed RYM and so it has come to pass and then plenty more. SUM is the new RYM of this sector and is the only one that deserves a premium to NTA based on their track record of underlying eps growth which has consistently been very, very good unlike all other sector participant's in recent years.

RYM with an NTA of just under $6 and the highest gearing still looks very vulnerable to ongoing underperformance even after underperforming the market for 8 long years already. Their track record ever since Simon Challis left many, many years ago has been anything but stellar so the current >50% premium to NTA is entirely unwarranted.

Forward looking strategy:- If I could get some more OCA around the IPO price of 79 cents that would be nice but better still and possibly even more enticing in the long run is getting back on board SUM at somewhere about $9. I'd be very happy to be on their share register for the long haul. Very high quality stock is that one.

[ralph]

Agree with that Beagle & the 42.3% drop shows that others do as well , but if it got down anywhere near the NTA I would be looking to load up as would most folks

[Beagle]

Agree with that Beagle & the 42.3% drop shows that others do as well , but if it got down anywhere near the NTA I would be looking to load up as would most folks

I'm calling it. RYM is yesterday's market darling and will stay that way. The magic left when Simon Challis left and now they have a new unproven CEO to steer the ship through this stormy sea....good luck with that and I am glad I am not onboard that ship.
If Scott Scouller stays as CEO of SUM, (he's a very bright guy), its quite possible that one day in the years to come we'll see the share price of SUM be double that of RYM ! Now that would be quite SUMthing to see

Brent should do okay with OCA as long as he doesn;t get sucked into the black hole of thinking that the best of care should be provided and cost controls and restraints of any kind doesn't matter one iota High quality care needs to be provided on an efficient and effective basis so shareholders get a fair slice of the cake. Surely as a former director of investment banking at Jarden he understands these things ?

[winner69]

Beagle me old mate …. methinks being a former director of investment banking at Jarden actually isn’t the best credentials to run a aged care company….. just methinking.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

With rising rates could we see NTA going backwards? Should any of these trade at a premium to NTA? Given their woeful dividend yields I'd suggest not... More pressure to come for SUM and RYM me thinks.

[dreamcatcher]

Aussie nurses walked of the job today demanding better pay