OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[BlackPeter]

BP the highlighted part in your post is utter rubbish. Saying all the Kiwis living overseas want to come back home when the borders open. Yes there are about 1 million Kiwis living overseas but NOT many of them will be moving back. Many feel totally disgusted with and disconnected from NZ now and most live a good life where they are. There are many foreign borne people living in NZ that may move back offshore after the last 2 years and so will many young Kiwis. My bet is we will see a significant net outflow of people when the borders properly open.

Your view .... does not mean that a different view must be "utter rubbish". Something in your morning tea which disagreed with you?

I didn't say either that the whole million will come, but I think it is valid assumption that the number coming might be higher than the number going. Take the Kiwis overseas, add all the foreign workers we desperately need (like nurses, doctors, machine operators), add the people who don't want to be close to a war in Europe or in a country which in the blink of an eye can turn again populist and controlled by the alt right (US), or in a country much closer to the impacts of climate change (most tropical regions) - all these people will need a place to live.

I realize that you are frustrated about the current government and the MIQ system (and I share most of these views), but this does not mean that everybody will leave NZ as soon as they can ... there still might be some reasons to stick around as well? Don't forget that it was not just NZ turning more populist, xenophobe and selfish during the Covid times ... we don't have to be anymore as attractive as we used to be, we just need to be more attractive than the other countries.

[Bjauck]

BP the highlighted part in your post is utter rubbish. Saying all the Kiwis living overseas want to come back home when the borders open. Yes there are about 1 million Kiwis living overseas but NOT many of them will be moving back. Many feel totally disgusted with and disconnected from NZ now and most live a good life where they are. There are many foreign borne people living in NZ that may move back offshore after the last 2 years and so will many young Kiwis. My bet is we will see a significant net outflow of people when the borders properly open.

Up to about six months ago the Hermit Kingdom and Ardern were put on a pedestal by many (myself too). Then the wheels started getting loose on the Covid Response wagon. I think now when the borders reopen there will be fewer rushing to come back or migrate to NZ.

Most of the returned Kiwis I knew of, have returned overseas*. They were late 20's-30's though. So whereas in previous generations many in that age group would be looking to settle down back in NZ and buy a house, this generation have to a large extent been priced out of that - and now shut out by Labour's ccfa changes.

*The expat Kiwis I know have returned to the the Uk and The USA, which had a difficult time with covid responses. Obviously central and Eastern Europe especially are in uncertain times now and the situation could deteriorate rapidly.

[iceman]

Your view .... does not mean that a different view must be "utter rubbish". Something in your morning tea which disagreed with you?

I didn't say either that the whole million will come, but I think it is valid assumption that the number coming might be higher than the number going. Take the Kiwis overseas, add all the foreign workers we desperately need (like nurses, doctors, machine operators), add the people who don't want to be close to a war in Europe or in a country which in the blink of an eye can turn again populist and controlled by the alt right (US), or in a country much closer to the impacts of climate change (most tropical regions) - all these people will need a place to live.

I realize that you are frustrated about the current government and the MIQ system (and I share most of these views), but this does not mean that everybody will leave NZ as soon as they can ... there still might be some reasons to stick around as well? Don't forget that it was not just NZ turning more populist, xenophobe and selfish during the Covid times ... we don't have to be anymore as attractive as we used to be, we just need to be more attractive than the other countries.

I don't drink tea and it's evening where I am, so no nothing in my morning tea. this is what you said " And lets not forget - we start to open the borders (sort of) for the first time in two years and more than a million Kiwis overseas locked out of NZ might want to come home"

Yes you had the word "might" but it is simply nuts to think every Kiwi overseas "might" want to come "home". I have followed the views of Kiwis overseas a lot in the last couple of years. I am absolutely sure not many of them will return to live and I think more will leave NZ than return. So a net outflow. Your post was about the positive effect a net inflow might have. The opposite could be true if we have a net outflow.

[Beagle]

Case in point. My nephew working in IT just bought a beautiful near new 3 bedroom brick and tile home with a small swimming pool within 15 minutes drive of central Perth for just $375,000 on 2% deposit, (that's not a typo), yes just 2%. The banks have every confidence Perth property is headed north and that 2% deposit is some special scheme.
He earns a lot more over there and they have a good life there with their young family.

If he was here they would be stuck paying enormous rent with very little prospect of escaping the rent trap and have far less disposable income.
There is no chance he will return to N.Z. where he grew up.

[allfromacell]

Case in point. My nephew working in IT just bought a beautiful near new 3 bedroom brick and tile home with a small swimming pool within 15 minutes drive of central Perth for just $375,000 on 2% deposit, (that's not a typo), yes just 2%. The banks have every confidence Perth property is headed north and that 2% deposit is some special scheme.
He earns a lot more over there and they have a good life there with their young family.

If he was here they would be stuck paying enormous rent with very little prospect of escaping the rent trap and have far less disposable income.
There is no chance he will return to N.Z. where he grew up.

I'm in a similar position and will be heading to Sydney for a 40% salary bump. A lot of young Kiwis will be doing the same thing, the opportunity cost of not leaving is becoming too large.

One things for sure is I will be taking my OCA shares with me, fortunately their business model is focused on elderly and we have plenty of them, hopefully we can import the labour needed.

[Cyclical]

...hopefully we can import the labour needed.

The unfortunate reality is that's gonna be the key to this sector's future success. Perhaps coupled with a lot more automation/robots. With the elderly becoming a much larger percentage of our population going forward, we're either going to have to become a whole lot more efficient, or import the labour...others can argue about positive/negative migration flows post border opening, but I think the key tangible thing is making it easier to bolster our care focused foreign labour capacity. Those that wanna go and work in AU can probably do so (I know some that departed recently), without sitting around waiting for our borders to open.

[winner69]

Stockland in Aussie sold their retirement living portfolio to our friends EQT

EQT paid slightly less than book value

Maybe some PE outfit looking at Oceania …..get a bargain even if they offered $1.25 to put us out of our misery

[Cyclical]

Stockland in Aussie sold their retirement living portfolio to our friends EQT

EQT paid slightly less than book value

Maybe some PE outfit looking at Oceania …..get a bargain even if they offered $1.25 to put us out of our misery

There would have to be some synergies, right? Not a bad time for bargain hunting, something those EQT chaps seem to be pretty apt at...

I wonder how Metlifecare has progressed since the acquisition?

[RTM]

Stockland in Aussie sold their retirement living portfolio to our friends EQT

EQT paid slightly less than book value

Maybe some PE outfit looking at Oceania …..get a bargain even if they offered $1.25 to put us out of our misery

You really don't think we'll see $1.30 again...do you Winner ?

[winner69]

You really don't think we'll see $1.30 again...do you Winner ?

Think that was said about $1.60 as well

Jeez $1.60 not long ago ……that’s quite a fall eh