OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Zaphod]

Up to about six months ago the Hermit Kingdom and Ardern were put on a pedestal by many (myself too). Then the wheels started getting loose on the Covid Response wagon. I think now when the borders reopen there will be fewer rushing to come back or migrate to NZ.

Most of the returned Kiwis I knew of, have returned overseas*. They were late 20's-30's though. So whereas in previous generations many in that age group would be looking to settle down back in NZ and buy a house, this generation have to a large extent been priced out of that - and now shut out by Labour's ccfa changes.

*The expat Kiwis I know have returned to the the Uk and The USA, which had a difficult time with covid responses. Obviously central and Eastern Europe especially are in uncertain times now and the situation could deteriorate rapidly.

We now have a number of qualified staff leaving our firm for foreign shores like the US and UK, despite the difficult (as you put it) covid response of those countries. Career opportunities for highly qualified individuals are extremely limited in New Zealand, and the reward in foreign markets is much higher. One staff member is set to double their salary in the US, which also provides a much lower cost of living, and provides far more networking opportunities to advance their career or build a business. One of my own colleagues works for a major US-based tech firm, earning US$280k +bonus (over US$100K last time) +perks. We can't compete, especially now.

Will these individuals return to NZ to retire and buy into retirement village units? Based on what I see with my colleagues, the answer is no. They have families in these countries, have developed support networks, and enjoy the greater travel and general leisure opportunities available. Some will be in the position that they could pay for the services provided by retirement villages but have them delivered in their own home. So the market for these villages are likely to be for those that have remained here, or perhaps close by (e.g. Australia).

[Cyclical]

You really don't think we'll see $1.30 again...do you Winner ?

Think that was said about $1.60 as well

Jeez $1.60 not long ago ……that’s quite a fall eh

It's crazy to think this one is back to the kind of price it was for the vast majority of 2019...how can that be right?

Actually Ryman fairs even worse...you'd need to go back to 2017 to see the current prices (March 2020 excepted of course).

[Baa_Baa]

It's crazy to think this one is back to the kind of price it was for the vast majority of 2019...how can that be right?

No secret this has been very volatile since covid arrived in 2020 and became a good trading stock for those who know how to play that game. For the genuine long holds, the SP really doesn't matter too much except for those times when you can buy more of a share of all future earnings at discounted prices. I bet there's a few people who are still laughing their heads off after they scored a truckload following the 2020 Covid low. It's just a matter of perspective.

[FatTed]

We now have a number of qualified staff leaving our firm for foreign shores like the US and UK, despite the difficult (as you put it) covid response of those countries. Career opportunities for highly qualified individuals are extremely limited in New Zealand, and the reward in foreign markets is much higher. One staff member is set to double their salary in the US, which also provides a much lower cost of living, and provides far more networking opportunities to advance their career or build a business. One of my own colleagues works for a major US-based tech firm, earning US$280k +bonus (over US$100K last time) +perks. We can't compete, especially now.

Will these individuals return to NZ to retire and buy into retirement village units? Based on what I see with my colleagues, the answer is no. They have families in these countries, have developed support networks, and enjoy the greater travel and general leisure opportunities available. Some will be in the position that they could pay for the services provided by retirement villages but have them delivered in their own home. So the market for these villages are likely to be for those that have remained here, or perhaps close by (e.g. Australia).

I think you may find when people get to retirement age in the US and no longer have worked based health insurance they will not be able to afford to stay. They will elect to move to a country where the health care is "free". such as the UK or NZ

[Panda-NZ-]

I think you may find when people get to retirement age in the US and no longer have worked based health insurance they will not be able to afford to stay. They will elect to move to a country where the health care is "free". such as the UK or NZ

Yes that's a good point.

It will be a problem for returning SCV kiwis in particular.
Free nz super which they don't qualify for in Australia.

[Beagle]

Yeah I backed the truck up at close to the lows in early 2020 and have subsequently normalised my holding to free ride it but laughing my head off at the moment ?...definitely not !!!
Does anyone's head in seeing $1.50 go down to the point where the last two digits are round the other way...must admit when I saw $1.05 this morning I felt like this stock should come with a health warning...something like this seems appropriate

"HEALTH AND SAFETY WARNING - Be Warned, holding this stock is liable to make you feel like beating your head against a brick wall"

Takeover at fair value NAV of $1.42...just show me where to sign because I think management have no idea on how to deliver quality care services in a cost efficient manner. As Winner said, please put us out of our misery.

I suppose I could have another go at backing the truck up if it gets back to the IPO price but that would also involve needing to fits pads to the walls of my kennel lol

[Zaphod]

I think you may find when people get to retirement age in the US and no longer have worked based health insurance they will not be able to afford to stay. They will elect to move to a country where the health care is "free". such as the UK or NZ

Medicare provides a basic level of hospital care for 65+ year olds. We're also talking specifically about highly paid individuals, but your point is a valid one. It really depends upon what work is being undertaken in the US, and whether they seek citizenship. Most of my colleagues who moved there have done so.

[Cyclical]

Takeover at fair value NAV of $1.42...just show me where to sign because I think management have no idea on how to deliver quality care services in a cost efficient manner. As Winner said, please put us out of our misery.

I suppose I could have another go at backing the truck up if it gets back to the IPO price but that would also involve needing to fits pads to the walls of my kennel lol

Agreed on the takeover thinking, and I think the possibility can't be discounted, although the OIO may not like the idea of that being EQT with MET already on their books.

Personally I don't think we'll see much downside from here, maybe it would get down to ~90c if covid sweeping through some of the villages looked ugly in the press, otherwise I think we're already in over correction territory. Happy to be proven wrong though and given a chance to back up another (small) truck.

[ralph]

I disagree Ted ,its not all free dental , non acc covered etc, and the waiting list for us poor folks are horrendous .
I have a different perspectives friends /kiwis waiting for years for knee and hip ops ,others getting it done private the next day or going abroad for cheaper ops .'
Have done the same myself ,certainly not a health system for any one with money to come back for .

[Perky]

Talking of EQT and takeovers…I see they spent $1B buying Stocklands retirement assets in Australia. At least someone still likes the sector.