OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[ralph]

Talking of EQT and takeovers…I see they spent $1B buying Stocklands retirement assets in Australia. At least someone still likes the sector.

Pretty sure if they where interested they would be waiting like anyone else till covid really starts to ravage this sector and the nz housing bubble bursts .

[Greekwatchdog]

Pretty sure if they where interested they would be waiting like anyone else till covid really starts to ravage this sector and the nz housing bubble bursts .

Really? Housing won't crash. Govt can ill afford to let that happen 19 months before election. What they want xxx people evicted out of there house as the equity is negative? As for Covid, this thing is going everywhere, however the elderly will be safer in these villages with strict protocols and health people available. They will get better service in there than we do outside.

[Cyclical]

Pretty sure if they where interested they would be waiting like anyone else till covid really starts to ravage this sector and the nz housing bubble bursts .

Yeah, nah, I'd suggest in this instance the stock market has been pretty forward looking and most of the discount has already been baked in (~30% down from recent high). Maybe there's another ~10% to go from here, who knows. Suspect we may be sitting around these ~1 buck levels for an extended period though, until there's a bit less uncertainty floating about, unless there is takeover talk that is...

[Bjauck]

I disagree Ted ,its not all free dental , non acc covered etc, and the waiting list for us poor folks are horrendous .
I have a different perspectives friends /kiwis waiting for years for knee and hip ops ,others getting it done private the next day or going abroad for cheaper ops .'
Have done the same myself ,certainly not a health system for any one with money to come back for .

Yes the acc/medical dichotomy results in vastly different outcomes. In addition when dental, hearing and eyesight are to a large extent not covered, NZ health is only partly socialised. However perhaps this would not be an issue for the wealthier returning ex-pats with a medical insurance history?

[ralph]

Yes but wealthy expats returning to the NZ for retirement are like rocking horse poo Bjauck ,unlike uninsured ex pats coming in from Aus going in to state housing .

[ralph]

Yeah, nah, I'd suggest in this instance the stock market has been pretty forward looking and most of the discount has already been baked in (~30% down from recent high). Maybe there's another ~10% to go from here, who knows. Suspect we may be sitting around these ~1 buck levels for an extended period though, until there's a bit less uncertainty floating about, unless there is takeover talk that is...

Maybe only another 10 % but certainly in uncharted territories' ,

[Baa_Baa]

Yeah, nah, I'd suggest in this instance the stock market has been pretty forward looking and most of the discount has already been baked in (~30% down from recent high). Maybe there's another ~10% to go from here, who knows. Suspect we may be sitting around these ~1 buck levels for an extended period though, until there's a bit less uncertainty floating about, unless there is takeover talk that is...

The whole sector has been nailed, it's not just OCA.

A few percent more or less nailed than another player is really not relevant. The question is that, peoples capital is being smashed while they hold this sector, so why would they do that?

Maybe they don't care about their short term market capital on some companies, maybe buy some more and look forward to decades of regular returns?

When the SP is low convert to DRP, but when it is high go for the cash.

Long term is a mindset.

[Beagle]

EQT are vultures as demonstrated when they took over MET at just 85% of NTA and used the fear of the unknown with Covid to their advantage. I also had very serious reservations about the so called independent valuation that was undertaken for MET and a number of other matters I posted about at the time.
EQT wouldn't be interested in paying a fair value for developments in progress of any other aspect of fair net asset value (NAV) of $1.42.
They'd want to only pay 85% of NTA ($1.27) = $1.08. To heck with that, if I want to give them away I can sell them on market for that.

Acknowledge that you are right Baa Baa that all stocks in the sector have had a good haircut but I think the most frustrating thing with this one is its now well and truly underneath fair NAV whereas all the others are still trading at a premium to NTA, in fact quite a significant premium in the case of SUM and RYM. You have to ask yourself why and of course the answer is what I've been dogmatically barking about for ages because it's such a big issue so unless they can fix that problem then quite frankly I think the shares probably deserve to trade at a discount to NTA. I have very little confidence left they can ever control wages costs in line with care fees earned hence I'd welcome a takeover at fair NAV of $1.42 with open arms.

[mike2020]

You would regret that Beagle. It has previously been through similar cycles and will be a bone worth digging up again in the future. I'd hate to see it head off market.

[winner69]

One thing going for OCA is that it could be seen by some as a bargain at $1.05 - you get heaps more shares for a $1,000 than you would with say SUM

Anything to create a bit of buying interest helps