OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Waltzing]

Note 3.1 in the FA is where all the action appears to be then.

Else the PL would look like another year of costs keeping up with profit as pointed out by MR B...

[dobby41]

Sounds like you expect Armageddon to arrive over the next couple of weeks. Who knows, maybe it does and NZ is the only country in the world which crashes under Omicron ... most other countries (like US. UK, Australia) are already over it. Sure - there might be a handful of "interesting" weeks to come, but what difference does this do exactly to anybody with a time horizon longer then a fruit fly?

A good point there.

[Beagle]

TA has to be a worry - In a nutshell what I am saying is that the chart shows the share price is in a steady downtrend for the last 6 months. No TA indicator is signaling the downtrend is over.

Why is this the only stock in the sector to trade at a huge discount to NAV ? There's good reasons that I have made very clear.

In my experience when anyone claims they are able to pick the bottom and their analysis is better than what TA is telling you I have learned even if such a person is your friend and well respected on here it is best to ignore that person's bold claim. The old dog knows this from long experience.

From a fundamental analysis perspective underlying eps has gone backwards since this listed. There is no way to debate this unfortunate fact.

Rather than trying to pick a bottom maybe a more astute move on a risk-reward basis is to wait for a new uptrend to emerge as hopefully confirmed by a break up through the 30 day moving average in due course ?

Armageddon ? - well, NSW had more than 80 deaths a day at the peak...that's pretty gnarly in anyone's book. https://www.bing.com/search?q=nsw+co...C=U531&ntref=1

[Waltzing]

On the basis of Periodic reporting isnt expenses tracking 3.6% ahead of Increases in Income?

but that means income will have to rise even faster.

[Beagle]

On the basis of Periodic reporting isnt expenses tracking 3.6% ahead of Increases in Income?

but that means income will have to rise even faster.

Been a problem for a long time now.

[Waltzing]

Yes the proportional variances should start to move the other way if the model and the machinery of their business is working.

In the mean time if the SP handle price get to low then they do become a take over target.

[Baa_Baa]

Good discussion folks, thanks. A few references to TA are right to point out that there is no 'bottom' locked in, it could still easily go either way.

The only things offering some glimmer of encouragement on the chart is that $1.05 has appeared six times in the past two weeks as support. Backing out to a big picture monthly chart and $1.03 is the 61.8% fib retrace from the March 2020 monthly Covid closing price, that suggests some technical support.

On the other hand, it's still tracking down on the 9-day EMA which is as short term as I care to look, and is miles below the long-EMA's, a bit like miles below NAV/NTA.

[Cyclical]

Armageddon ? - well, NSW had more than 80 deaths a day at the peak...that's pretty gnarly in anyone's book. https://www.bing.com/search?q=nsw+co...C=U531&ntref=1

Not wishing to trivialise covid deaths, but some perspective wouldn't go astray...there was one day when it hit 84 deaths, which was head and shoulders above every other day. The 7 day average was 40 at the time.

Armageddon for in my view would be this Ukraine thing sparking WW3, in which case losing a few bucks is likely to be the least of our worries.

Thanks all, there have been some excellent posts in this thread over the weekend. I'll reiterate my thinking from a couple of weeks ago...at these prices, it's accumulate. And if it dips further, great, DCA it is. If there's not an opportunity to sell these for at least a 10% profit in the next 12 months, I'll eat my hat.

[Habits]

Good discussion folks, thanks. A few references to TA are right to point out that there is no 'bottom' locked in, it could still easily go either way.

The only things offering some glimmer of encouragement on the chart is that $1.05 has appeared six times in the past two weeks as support. Backing out to a big picture monthly chart and $1.03 is the 61.8% fib retrace from the March 2020 monthly Covid closing price, that suggests some technical support.

On the other hand, it's still tracking down on the 9-day EMA which is as short term as I care to look, and is miles below the long-EMA's, a bit like miles below NAV/NTA.

Just looking at the recent OCA chart, it immediately stood out as going lower and cracking below 1.05 ... not tomorrow surely as we should follow the dow and move higher.

[ralph]

No Opinion's there Thanks, just facts josh .