OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[BlackPeter]

TA has to be a worry - In a nutshell what I am saying is that the chart shows the share price is in a steady downtrend for the last 6 months. No TA indicator is signaling the downtrend is over.

Why is this the only stock in the sector to trade at a huge discount to NAV ? There's good reasons that I have made very clear.

In my experience when anyone claims they are able to pick the bottom and their analysis is better than what TA is telling you I have learned even if such a person is your friend and well respected on here it is best to ignore that person's bold claim. The old dog knows this from long experience.

From a fundamental analysis perspective underlying eps has gone backwards since this listed. There is no way to debate this unfortunate fact.

Rather than trying to pick a bottom maybe a more astute move on a risk-reward basis is to wait for a new uptrend to emerge as hopefully confirmed by a break up through the 30 day moving average in due course ?

Armageddon ? - well, NSW had more than 80 deaths a day at the peak...that's pretty gnarly in anyone's book. https://www.bing.com/search?q=nsw+co...C=U531&ntref=1

Fair enough ... the trend so far does not look pretty though there seems to be some sort of local bottom / support line. I agree however that nobody can predict whether this is just the bottom before the next ripple down or the change of the trend.

That's the thing with TA - it does not predict the future, but it gives you some sense of the current mood in the market ... and this is clearly undecided.

Looking back at Covid dip mach 1 I started the slow averaging in with a planned 12 month window and found out that I still had most of my cash when the markets had already recovered. The fast recovery (which many, including myself thought a dead cat bounce) just surprised me. Tough luck.

Learning from that am I this time earlier buying, not in BEAR and more in shares. Obviously - nobody can tell how this dip is going to behave - are we still on the way down or already up again? Will it be the same V-shaped recovery like last time? Anybody who says he (she) knows is kidding him (or her-) self.

Personally do I think the worst Covid jitters of the market are over (but hey, this is a personal view) and while I have no means of knowing whether the madman Putin is going to start WW III in earnest (which clearly could kill millions on both sides of the iron curtain and contaminate worst case significant parts of Europe and Northern Asia) ... I am sure that the world economy will do just fine without Russia. Excellent motivation to help the Western world to wean themselves off gas and oil doing a cold turkey. So yes - I am more optimistic and yes, I might be as wrong (or wronger) as the pessimists may or may not be.

Learned however some decades ago in a management course that while optimists are not more often right then pessimists, they do tend to live longer.

I like this idea ;

[Waltzing]

Looks like MR B was right after all... again..they better lock the doors in the rest homes.

Herald this morning.

"More than 800 Counties Manukau DHB staff are not at work because they're sick or a member of their household has Covid-19, as case numbers in hospitals rise."

[Beau]

Looks like MR B was right after all... again..they better lock the doors in the rest homes.

Herald this morning.

"More than 800 Counties Manukau DHB staff are not at work because they're sick or a member of their household has Covid-19, as case numbers in hospitals rise."

Don’t know about the other rest homes but Rymans have already shut the doors to visitors.I would think the others have as well or will follow on.

[Waltzing]

well take overs are off for while.

Hard to inspect the foundations when the gates are locked.

you can only sniff from the curb and bark.

[thebusinessman]

My grandad is in a BUPA home and as of today all visitors must RAT test on the way in, and visiting hours have been halved... Glad they're taking it seriously.

[Beagle]

well take overs are off for while.

Hard to inspect the foundations when the gates are locked.

you can only sniff from the curb and bark.

I've temporarily gone hoarse from all the barking, I am sure some will be pleased lol

[Greekwatchdog]

well take overs are off for while.

Hard to inspect the foundations when the gates are locked.

you can only sniff from the curb and bark.

You can get into Building sites following correct protocols. You can't just walk in if your visiting loved ones etc..

[James108]

Construction is still occurring. Albeit a lot of sites have high Covid absences.

[Beagle]

Maybe the company could consider a share buy-back ?

[winner69]

Maybe the company could consider a share buy-back ?

they borrow to pay the divie so why not borrow zillions more for a buyback ....cool