OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

I think I am going to have to rename this stock OCD. Its doing my head in with obsessive compulsive disorder tendencies.
Yesterday when I saw it close at $1.01 I want to sell this mangy pup to the meat works and today it looks like its a bit more loveable and might deserve a cuddle. Help....I probably should go and get some therapy lol

[Poolboy]

Girlfriend pointed a Rottweiler at me and said "Back away from the keyboard." Ha, as if I'm silly enough to buy some more :rolleyes :

[percy]

I think I am going to have to rename this stock OCD. Its doing my head in with obsessive compulsive disorder tendencies.
Yesterday when I saw it close at $1.01 I want to sell this mangy pup to the meat works and today it looks like its a bit more loveable and might deserve a cuddle. Help....I probably should go and get some therapy lol

Long overdue...lol

[Louloubell]

Hi Beagle, you are right, you need some therapy. Being a mental health nurse I might be able to help. Over a glass of vino we can discuss OCE and TRA and you can cry on my shoulder.

[Greekwatchdog]

I think I am going to have to rename this stock OCD. Its doing my head in with obsessive compulsive disorder tendencies.
Yesterday when I saw it close at $1.01 I want to sell this mangy pup to the meat works and today it looks like its a bit more loveable and might deserve a cuddle. Help....I probably should go and get some therapy lol

You make this too hard. You have done your research and we have discussed in length pros/cons and watched in frustration the fall over last 6 months. This was always a invest forget stock. The big issue if your a momentum trader you look daily. Trust your own insights old dog you won't lose any more hair.

Good luck with your decision.

[Beagle]

Hi Beagle, you are right, you need some therapy. Being a mental health nurse I might be able to help. Over a glass of vino we can discuss OCE and TRA and you can cry on my shoulder.

Sounds good, here we go https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esjec0JWEXU

You're right GWD, I should get a proper job and / or a decent boat and keep more busy and be extremely grateful that I am not in the front line of this Covid mess,,,WOW sobering stuff https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/a-note...DF5WFGYWBNZTA/.

[Bjauck]

I think I am going to have to rename this stock OCD. Its doing my head in with obsessive compulsive disorder tendencies.
Yesterday when I saw it close at $1.01 I want to sell this mangy pup to the meat works and today it looks like its a bit more loveable and might deserve a cuddle. Help....I probably should go and get some therapy lol

Ha! Abandoned baby or mangy pup? I will go for its being the puppy that has just taken a dump in your favourite moccasins (ah yes I speak from experience!) It’s in your bad books at the moment, but the odds are that it will grow up to be a faithful companion…

[winner69]

…… This was always a invest forget stock…..
..

Maybe a invest Forget stock …..and when you remember you had it you cry out ‘jeez, what happened I’ve lost heaps’

[Greekwatchdog]

Maybe a invest Forget stock …..and when you remember you had it you cry out ‘jeez, what happened I’ve lost heaps’

Maybe winner, but you only lose when you sell. Sometimes in investing you have to lose 1 to have xxx winners. I am sure you are an astute investor to know already. Just like buying a horse at the sales. The best bloodlines aren't always the best investment.

[Maverick]

I think I am going to have to rename this stock OCD. Its doing my head in with obsessive compulsive disorder tendencies.
Yesterday when I saw it close at $1.01 I want to sell this mangy pup to the meat works and today it looks like its a bit more loveable and might deserve a cuddle. Help....I probably should go and get some therapy lol

Too funny Beagle. It's interesting that you currently dislike this “flea infested mutt” and yet you own it and won't/cant walk away.

Here's my uneducated theory for you since it's more or less happy hour right now, grab that tui and lets go…
It seems to me you've morphed from value investing (with TA on the side) to being TA dominant these days (but only trading with value companies.) Now we all know the TA and momentum for RV stocks has been appalling for 7 months now. That's why you loathe it….but there's that part of you that still knows somewhere in this flea infested mutt is value. There's your quandary.

You know I'm all about the value and have a long time horizon but don't you worry , I still feel these falls as keenly as anybody. When you and I get our knickers in such a twist on a few cents movement it tells me 2 things.
Firstly- nearly all other investors will be feeling the same emotions and thinking capitulation -” sending it of to the works” (almost certainly worse than us if they are newer to the game or less familiar with the actual OCA financials)
Secondly- that only a few cents movement can now evoke such a reaction surely suggests incredulity it can fall even further, even by a few cents. I interpret this as we must be at or close to the bottom as there is no remaining logic causing this low level. I suspect you instinctively know that too.

ARV and OCA PE were about 19/20 about 6 months ago when everything was property positive, oil was cheap enough, inflation was transitory and our smug little hermit nation was ticking along fine. See where I'm going with this. So now ARV and OCA have had PE compression all the way down to 12.5-13.Yes, RYM and SUM have too of course but run on different multiples. This is the next clue that the readjustment is now complete as i've never known PEs of ARV or OCA ever to go below this.

Ive done a bit of digging around as a value investor making sure the company has not experienced any operational changes to justify a derating. I am fully re- assured the fundamentals of OCA , deliveries , prices etc have not changed in the slightest. In fact everything is right where it should be as of this week despite potential omicron and labour/supply issues. We know from other companies they too are performing as expected. So it's ALL about perception. As an aside “ finance sector ” is all in TA favour right now hence it's easy to love HGH but hate all things property.

The real dilemma for you I suggest Beagle is not how much more can this fall but for you is when to get back in. You fundamentally can sniff a good feed when Waimarie gets selling ( and I can confirm that through my workings) but it's got to be another 18 months away . So you instinctively know the feed is there to be had but when do you get back on board?... What do you do Jack , what do you do ( fantastic quote from Sandra Bullock's “Speed”).

Market closes in 10 minutes and we will despair or celebrate if it goes up or down a few cents. Time for a second tui to celebrate ( or commiserate.)

Have a great weekend mate, your post has certainly caused quite a stir.