OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Greekwatchdog]

SUM and RYM were up 2% and 4% respectively as well. Lets see what next week brings for the sector.

[Beagle]

Too funny Beagle. It's interesting that you currently dislike this “flea infested mutt” and yet you own it and won't/cant walk away.

Here's my uneducated theory for you since it's more or less happy hour right now, grab that tui and lets go…
It seems to me you've morphed from value investing (with TA on the side) to being TA dominant these days (but only trading with value companies.) Now we all know the TA and momentum for RV stocks has been appalling for 7 months now. That's why you loathe it….but there's that part of you that still knows somewhere in this flea infested mutt is value. There's your quandary.

You know I'm all about the value and have a long time horizon but don't you worry , I still feel these falls as keenly as anybody. When you and I get our knickers in such a twist on a few cents movement it tells me 2 things.
Firstly- nearly all other investors will be feeling the same emotions and thinking capitulation -” sending it of to the works” (almost certainly worse than us if they are newer to the game or less familiar with the actual OCA financials)
Secondly- that only a few cents movement can now evoke such a reaction surely suggests incredulity it can fall even further, even by a few cents. I interpret this as we must be at or close to the bottom as there is no remaining logic causing this low level. I suspect you instinctively know that too.

ARV and OCA PE were about 19/20 about 6 months ago when everything was property positive, oil was cheap enough, inflation was transitory and our smug little hermit nation was ticking along fine. See where I'm going with this. So now ARV and OCA have had PE compression all the way down to 12.5-13.Yes, RYM and SUM have too of course but run on different multiples. This is the next clue that the readjustment is now complete as i've never known PEs of ARV or OCA ever to go below this.

Ive done a bit of digging around as a value investor making sure the company has not experienced any operational changes to justify a derating. I am fully re- assured the fundamentals of OCA , deliveries , prices etc have not changed in the slightest. In fact everything is right where it should be as of this week despite potential omicron and labour/supply issues. We know from other companies they too are performing as expected. So it's ALL about perception. As an aside “ finance sector ” is all in TA favour right now hence it's easy to love HGH but hate all things property.

The real dilemma for you I suggest Beagle is not how much more can this fall but for you is when to get back in. You fundamentally can sniff a good feed when Waimarie gets selling ( and I can confirm that through my workings) but it's got to be another 18 months away . So you instinctively know the feed is there to be had but when do you get back on board?... What do you do Jack , what do you do ( fantastic quote from Sandra Bullock's “Speed”).

Market closes in 10 minutes and we will despair or celebrate if it goes up or down a few cents. Time for a second tui to celebrate ( or commiserate.)

Have a great weekend mate, your post has certainly caused quite a stir.

LOL mate, you know the old dog too well. Its always a pleasure to hear from you buddy.
As you've very astutely noted my value investment strategy has adapted for the extraordinary times we find ourselves in with a very heavy overlay of TA.
In my opinion with everything going on this is not the time for excess confidence in one's fundamental assessment of value but with that said you are quite right that it seems pretty remarkable this is trading at such a deep discount to NAV. I suspect this has come in for more than a little short selling.

Certainly with the quarterly NZX50 rebalance (happens in the closing 15 minute match process of every third Friday of the third month of each quarter), at the close today we saw some significant institutional buying to rebalance.

Its been hard to watch this decline from $1.59 6 months ago to $1.01 yesterday, its certainly tear your hair out stuff, not that I have much left lol
I can't sell my free shares, promised myself I never would so I am captive to this roller coaster journey and on this journey whether I like it or not, (obviously I often don't lol.)

Today's little bounce was not quite enough to lift it up through the 30 day moving average line so its not time to adopt any more of these lonely looking abandoned puppies yet. One day I'll open the door and get some more of them into my warm kennel. We'd need to see them kick onwards and upwards a bit more next week before I'd be tempted.

I'm up for the month to date and the week which is pretty remarkable with all that's going on in the world so its definitely time for a beer !
Motto for the weekend, drink more, think less

[Poolboy]

it looks like someone is looking for a position from which to launch a takeover.

He may have been listening to you guys and believes they are worth 160.

Just business I suppose. Someone on AIA bought about 48 million worth at the day's high. Shame he didn't decide to buy first thing in the morning and saved 3 million. Must have been Peter Jackson, small change for him.

[winner69]

Somebody once said the process of losing big gains and recovering them over time is akin to a “long interesting trip to nowhere”

Think he was saying the retreat from high valuations (OCA at 160) acts as a headwind that consumes the return that would have been provided from less speculative more sensibly valued stocks.

Sort of says OCA was never really worth 160 but maybe in 3 years time it maybe ….and holding until it does is that “long trip to nowhere”

At least beagle sort of recognised that by selling some but faces a trip to nowhere but will be happier because the ones he’s buying now will be a trip to somewhere and the dog will be happy as

[alokdhir]

Somebody once said the process of losing big gains and recovering them over time is akin to a “long interesting trip to nowhere”

Think he was saying the retreat from high valuations (OCA at 160) acts as a headwind that consumes the return that would have been provided from less speculative more sensibly valued stocks.

Sort of says OCA was never really worth 160 but maybe in 3 years time it maybe ….and holding until it does is that “long trip to nowhere”

At least beagle sort of recognised that by selling some but faces a trip to nowhere but will be happier because the ones he’s buying now will be a trip to somewhere and the dog will be happy as

That makes me wonder He should have sold lots of his HGH around $ 2.59 as it was clearly over valued and then getting them around $ 2.06 would have added to trips happiness ...but did he ? I am sure he didn't as he liked HGH more then OCA ...point I am trying to make that some are more comfortable and convinced about some stocks and not so for others ...while all stocks do get overvalued from time to time as thats how markets work .

But Guru Lister says coming out of market every time we perceive it to be overvalued will never let u get best out of market . No trader makes more money then well researched and maybe lucky Long Term investor ...IMO

[percy]

That makes me wonder He should have sold lots of his HGH around $ 2.59 as it was clearly over valued and then getting them around $ 2.06 would have added to trips happiness ...but did he ? I am sure he didn't as he liked HGH more then OCA ...point I am trying to make that some are more comfortable and convinced about some stocks and not so for others ...while all stocks do get overvalued from time to time as thats how markets work .

But Guru Lister says coming out of market every time we perceive it to be overvalued will never let u get best out of market . No trader makes more money then well researched and maybe lucky Long Term investor ...IMO

If you look at companies' share register,it is easy to see the real wealthy,Masfen,Tindall,Todds,Goodfellow,Tomlinson are not traders,but long term investors.

[Rawz]

Nobody can time the market.. if they could they wouldn’t be here on sharetrader with the rest of us noobs. They would be in a private jet heading to their private island. I.e they would be a billionaire

[peat]

Nobody can time the market.. if they could they wouldn’t be here on sharetrader with the rest of us noobs. They would be in a private jet heading to their private island. I.e they would be a billionaire

but its fun trying... and if the trades are appropriately sized it doesnt matter that much. I bought some SPX the other day at the low almost to the minute.

good post Mav thanks for reviewing fundamental operations are good.

I'm holding from about 1.40 and starting to consider doubling down on that for the long term. the last few months look like a terminating triangle and there is clear RSI divergence.

[bottomfeeder]

From 1April I am no longer trading, but becoming a long term holder. I have loaded up on OCA so much over the last few weeks. As well as ARV. Too many eggs in one basket you might say, but I feel that the stock has been oversold, and when their current developments come on line, the true value and inflation proofing will reward me handsomely. Unfortunately it's crystal ball stuff, but only time will tell. I wonder how many shares you would need to hit the top 50 shareholders. I don't even know where to look for that sort of information.

[peat]

I don't even know where to look for that sort of information.

Top 20 is in the annual report and you need a few million to get that ranking.
OCA.JPG
But that info is almost a year old now and there was that cash raising so the list may be quite different now.