Mav --- My guess is 510 sales with realised gains $64m less $4m as what they've lost on day to day stuff = $60m underlying NPAT
But then again they've changed how they account for care depreciation so I don't really have any idea how this affects things this year .... or when it comes down to it what F21 Underlying Earnings (Comparative) were when they restate things with this change.
Change in balance date, several changes in accounting methodology, restating past numbers etc etc ..... all seems a big plan to confuse us so we have no idea what profit is .....as long as the trend of selling heaps more thjngs and making about the same doesn't continue.
You can see why Beagle and me prefer the Total Comprehensive Income line ... or at least the change in Total Comprehensive Income .... that's the number that essentially drives Book Value / NTA .... and lots more transparent
Last edited by winner69; 23-04-2022 at 03:39 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
As of 01/11 this year all new homes will require Thermally Broken Windows and Low E Glass. This effect All S.I and Central Plateau. It falls on councils at consenting when they direct this. Nov 1, 2023 remainder of N.I. This is MBIE over speaking a house. So on windows alone from start of this year to when this example takes effect will result in 50% increase in windows. The answer to #2 is if companies don't adjust there pricing model they get what they deserve.
Do you have a link to this requirement - I haven't heard of this before.
Sorry Dobby no. My understanding it hasn't been formally announced to my knowledge. I am in the industry and this is a huge change. PVC Windows could be used more often but the supply challenge (Europe and US supply base) in getting good supplies is difficult especially with todays Supply Chain constraints. Builders were stunned by it...
Sorry Dobby no. My understanding it hasn't been formally announced to my knowledge. I am in the industry and this is a huge change. PVC Windows could be used more often but the supply challenge (Europe and US supply base) in getting good supplies is difficult especially with todays Supply Chain constraints. Builders were stunned by it...
Mav --- My guess is 510 sales with realised gains $64m less $4m as what they've lost on day to day stuff = $60m underlying NPAT
But then again they've changed how they account for care depreciation so I don't really have any idea how this affects things this year .... or when it comes down to it what F21 Underlying Earnings (Comparative) were when they restate things with this change.
Change in balance date, several changes in accounting methodology, restating past numbers etc etc ..... all seems a big plan to confuse us so we have no idea what profit is .....as long as the trend of selling heaps more thjngs and making about the same doesn't continue.
You can see why Beagle and me prefer the Total Comprehensive Income line ... or at least the change in Total Comprehensive Income .... that's the number that essentially drives Book Value / NTA .... and lots more transparent
Deciphering OCA's accounts is ridiculously hard even for experienced investors and professionals like me, all the more so when they keep changing the basis upon which they're prepared. Sometimes in a quieter moment I also wonder if this is deliberate obfuscation.
NTA this year less NTA last year = earnings for the year, saves days of forensic accounting analysis.
NTA less 20%, (discount for the parts of their business that are ostensibly run as a charity and always will be) = fair value, saves weeks of endless DCF model building and refining which seems like a waste of time because predicting the future is riddled with so many infinite variables especially with Covid in the mix.
Sounds like creative accounting eh...but sometimes shortcut ways to measure earnings and fair value give the quickest and most reliable answers.
Last edited by Beagle; 23-04-2022 at 05:18 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
1. As far as I am concerned the Covid tail is here forever. Sooner we realise that the better. Move on.
2. No one will give you a fixed contract unless there are pricing clauses in contract. Prices will only increase from here. As of 01/11 this year all new homes will require Thermally Broken Windows and Low E Glass. This effect All S.I and Central Plateau. It falls on councils at consenting when they direct this. Nov 1, 2023 remainder of N.I. This is MBIE over speaking a house. So on windows alone from start of this year to when this example takes effect will result in 50% increase in windows. The answer to #2 is if companies don't adjust there pricing model they get what they deserve.
should we be backing up the truck to MPG?
(edit) just read the MPG thread and answered my own question
Mav --- My guess is 510 sales with realised gains $64m less $4m as what they've lost on day to day stuff = $60m underlying NPAT
But then again they've changed how they account for care depreciation so I don't really have any idea how this affects things this year .... or when it comes down to it what F21 Underlying Earnings (Comparative) were when they restate things with this change.
Change in balance date, several changes in accounting methodology, restating past numbers etc etc ..... all seems a big plan to confuse us so we have no idea what profit is .....as long as the trend of selling heaps more thjngs and making about the same doesn't continue.
You can see why Beagle and me prefer the Total Comprehensive Income line ... or at least the change in Total Comprehensive Income .... that's the number that essentially drives Book Value / NTA .... and lots more transparent
Thanks for your reply Winner. I've got total sales quite a lot less than you , but no worries , this year they have a lot of apartments for sale. There's really good Eden ones with high prices and margins in the mix too - even more expensive than Browns bay, consider their margin on a $1.5m apartment at 34% , then DMF that at 10% p/a . I know they are selling well. ( then compare that to selling of a regular villa for $700 at a margin of 12-15%) another reason we MUST have the continuum care component to get the sales at these prices.
The depreciation you mention was a weird thing, they put it up by 50% for 2020 but brought it back to normal after that. The official line was that it was more inline with competitors, who knows why they shot it up in the first place.
The 10 month period did indeed create a dogs breakfast and their reason was to change annual reporting times to be a more favorable time of year off shore when investors are not on holiday.
Then of course, as you point out, the extra layers of covid disruption and wage subsidy payback...yes...a total dogs breakfast.
So...on one hand I'm saying the financials must be fully broken down and quite finely too ,to do any accurate forecasting and the other hand the changes / disruptions make this extremely hard work and hugely time consuming to do so.
BUT...it can be done although I don't recommend to anyone to bother at this point as it should all get a lot easier from here. In the meantime RYM and SUM offer a superb alternative to OCA where no real work is required. However , IMO this confusion and difficulty is why OCA trades as low as it does to its peers, an opportunity that will close as the accounts get easier to follow from here and of course underscored by a rising NPAT.
I sometimes wonder how OCA could make it easier for us but have no better ideas. Its just difficult with a lot of moving parts and unfortunately complicating layers for now. Once the underlying profit starts rising and share price , no one will care then anyway.
I understand yours and Beagles frustration with these accounts but I would NEVER buy into a company just because it claims its buildings are worth more at the end of the year ( thinking of good ol` Rob Jones Investments from the 80s). For me it has to be about the underlying business not the accidental profit/loss of the building its in.
Been a great read on this thread today with the contributions from all. Thanks for everyone's inputs and points of view.
Oceania have burnt through $252m of cash since May 2017 and in spite of these negative cash flows handed out $79m in dividends. Total cash out of $331m
Been funded by extra $240m in debt and shareholders have pumped in $98m additional cash
Suppose that's all OK and it isn't really a ponzi scheme as some say
Never mind the 'value' of the company as measured by its Book Value has grown at 12% pa since May 17 - bearing mind the value esssentially what the valuers say their assets are worth (values and future cash flows)
So that increase pretty good - wonder what it is at March 2022
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Greekwatchdog
, this year they have a lot of apartments for sale. There's really good Eden ones with high prices and margins in the mix too - even more expensive than Browns bay, consider their margin on a $1.5m apartment at 34% , then DMF that at 10% p/a . I know they are selling well. ( then compare that to selling of a regular villa for $700 at a margin of 12-15%) another reason we MUST have the continuum care component to get the sales at these prices.
Bookmarks