OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[SailorRob]

Yes exactly, he should have said with Covid, of Covid is just a Govt propaganda line or was. 14 of my family/extended family have had Covid (7 vaxxed and 7 unvaxxed) all cases were mild in both groups excepting 1 which required hospilization (vaxxed member) The elderly living in OCA facilities are far more protected than those in the community with the measures put in place so I don't see why there should be a greater concern, people die every day in these facilities from a variety of causes, its a hatch and dispatch type business.

Lets see the EXCESS death statistics, then we can start to fear Covid more than we would wide scale Nuclear war, oh wait... Most people already do.

After that lovely fellow got blasted between the eyes with a high speed piece of lead and was subsequently presented to us as a Covid death... I thought the game was up.

Apparently not.

Beagles commentary regarding the affect it is having on these companies however is bang on.

I don't know much about Ryman but do know it's one hell of a company and I also know that either one or both of the September $16 price or the current price is significantly mispriced. Was trading at $9 in 2014 for gods sake.

The PE has never been this low. Even if it never grows from here, you have a very satisfactory investment (provided the don't blow coin chasing growth).

Despite all that Beagle has correctly raised - what am I missing? This is one of NZ's true Blue-chips selling at a fraction of the market multiple.

[Ggcc]

Are you sure about that?

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...-variants.aspx

It could be it is only the extremely successful vaccination campaign that has made Omicron 'seem' less deadly. New Zealand is near the top of the ladder in death rates per 100,000 people right now. We are on track for around 3,000 deaths 'with Covid' this year I reckon. The historical estimate is that we lose 500 people 'with the flu' each year. So it looks like Omicron is six times worse than the flu from a mortality perspective. And that is because Covid-19 is so much more transmissible than the flu, not because it is necessarily more pathogenic. It is the R value that is the real menace behind Covid-19 these days, not the pathenogicity.



I am going to wait for the Omicron wave to wash though before I let my guard down. That isn't because of fear (I do believe I will get Covid-19 in the end, am resigned to it, as in the longer term there will be no way to dodge it). But I would rather catch it later, when we have more meds and the medical boffins know more about the virus, and there are more hospital beds available.



The United Kingdom is currently the only country in the OECD with a higher hospitalisation and death rate than NZ. Not exactly a shining example to follow.

SNOOPY

I think if you put it out to vote the majority of people have had enough.

You are correct with the huge vaccination program it might have had helped somewhat but these stats we are fed are manipulated stats. I know of two people that died with covid. One by car accident, one by hanging and they are classed as covid deaths. Are those the stats that you would use?


Most of the people I know who contracted covid never put it on the New Zealand database. I have dodged so many bullets all kids, grandchildren, people at weddings who sat next to me and still no Covid. I did test for that to make sure I wasn’t the spreader.

The omicron waves won’t stop. Maybe after 20 waves you may feel more secure?

As for England who knows if they have the right idea, but the economy can’t handle more lockdowns right now. I think a minimum of 2 generations already owe money to pay off this covid debt.

Anyway we should head back to OCA discussions.

[winner69]

On a excess death seasonally adjusted basis OCA share price today is $1.46 .... some 2% off its all time high on this basis

Not too bad

[SailorRob]

On a excess death seasonally adjusted basis OCA share price today is $1.46 .... some 2% off its all time high on this basis

Not too bad

Is that kinda like community adjusted EBITDA!

[Beagle]

Lets see the EXCESS death statistics, then we can start to fear Covid more than we would wide scale Nuclear war, oh wait... Most people already do.
Despite all that Beagle has correctly raised - what am I missing? This is one of NZ's true Blue-chips selling at a fraction of the market multiple.

The sad truth is that until this current war in the Ukraine very few people I know had ever seriously worried about the threat of Nuclear war.
RYM was hideously overpriced in 2014 and called as such by Winner and I and has underperformed the market since then. I believe on an earnings basis its still the most expensive stock in this sector but based on their growth rate in recent years it doesn't deserve to be. I might run the ruler over it again after they report on the same day as Oceania on 20 May except it might not be for a few days after that because it takes a long time to digest the dog's breakfast that is OCA financial statements.

Thanks for your thoughts Snoopy. From the comments of others its clear that many, as I suggested earlier, have become desensitized to ~ 20 deaths a day with or from Covid.

[SailorRob]

The sad truth is that until this current war in the Ukraine very few people I know had ever seriously worried about the threat of Nuclear war.
RYM was hideously overpriced in 2014 and called as such by Winner and I and has underperformed the market since then. I believe on an earnings basis its still the most expensive stock in this sector but based on their growth rate in recent years it doesn't deserve to be. I might run the ruler over it again after they report on the same day as Oceania on 20 May except it might not be for a few days after that because it takes a long time to digest the dog's breakfast that is OCA financial statements.

Thanks for your thoughts Snoopy. From the comments of others its clear that many, as I suggested earlier, have become desensitized to ~ 20 deaths a day with or from Covid.

Clearly Beagle you are smart enough to realise 20 'with' is irrelevant. 20 'from' is a different story. You lump them together as if there is no difference.

We are desensitised to 20 deaths a day if this is the normal long running average for obvious reason. Death is normal - will happen to all of us.

IF there is a large spike in deaths FROM covid then I for one am not and will not be desensitised, it would be a true national tragedy.

[couta1]

The sad truth is that until this current war in the Ukraine very few people I know had ever seriously worried about the threat of Nuclear war.
RYM was hideously overpriced in 2014 and called as such by Winner and I and has underperformed the market since then. I believe on an earnings basis its still the most expensive stock in this sector but based on their growth rate in recent years it doesn't deserve to be. I might run the ruler over it again after they report on the same day as Oceania on 20 May except it might not be for a few days after that because it takes a long time to digest the dog's breakfast that is OCA financial statements.

Thanks for your thoughts Snoopy. From the comments of others its clear that many, as I suggested earlier, have become desensitized to ~ 20 deaths a day with or from Covid.

RYM was about $6 in 2014 and hit $17 early 2020 so i dont think the former price was hideously overpriced compared to its 2020 price. The thing about RYM is that taking its share split some yrs ago into account it has returned far superior returns than all the other listed companies since its inception including SUM and easily overshadowing OCA.

[BlackPeter]

...

Anyway we should head back to OCA discussions.

Absolutely agree with this last sentence. Please stick to it ...

[Beagle]

RYM was about $6 in 2014 and hit $17 early 2020 so i dont think the former price was hideously overpriced compared to its 2020 price. The thing about RYM is that taking its share split some yrs ago into account it has returned far superior returns than all the other listed companies since its inception including SUM and easily overshadowing OCA.

Had a look on MS Money chart. At no point in 2014 did RYM have a 6 handle that I could see. RYM was $8.75 on 31 March 2014 when we were all enjoying a very robust debate about its future prospects. Winners and my comments predicting many years of underperformance are all on the record in that thread at that time. Not worth me repeating quotes already there for all to see. Go back and have a look for yourself in the RYM thread if you don't believe me.

The sad fact is the shares as of a few minutes ago at $8.70 are lower today than they were then. I am sure I don't need to remind you of a certain theorem you held for many, many years and how I told you one day SUM would be worth more than RYM because...as per the second line in my signature below, earnings matter ! Yes early investors in RYM did very well indeed while RYM enjoyed first mover advantage but SUM has dramatically outperformed RYM over the timeframe its been listed.

As for OCA they have neither sentiment nor earnings in their favour. Just a discount to NTA but there are many other property companies trading at a sizeable discount to NTA without all the headwinds OCA have, e.g. ARG to name just one.

[couta1]

Had a look on MS Money chart. At no point in 2014 did RYM have a 6 handle. Its all on the record. RYM was $8.75 on 31 March 2014 when we were all enjoying a very robust debate about its future prospects. Winners and my comments predicting many years of underperformance are all on the record in that thread at that time. Not worth me repeating quotes that are all already on the record. Fact is the shares are lower today than they were then. I am sure i don;t need to remain you of a certain theorem you held for many many years and how I told you one day SUM would be worth more than RYM because...see the second line in my signature below.

As for OCA they have neither sentiment nor earnings in their favour. Just a discount to NTA but there are many other property companies trading at a sizeable discount to NTA without all the headwinds OCA have, e.g. ARG to name just one.

Yeah I just looked on my portfolio and it had a 6 handle late 2013. Fact is though which you didn't acknowledge is that RYM has still been the best investment in the sector since inception for long term holders (SUM has a huge gap to catch up to RYM on total returns) by the way my light hearted theorem lasted for near 7 yrs which is a whole lot more right than most of the other predictions on here.