Yes I think that sums it up very nicely. Not getting carried away adopting too many of these unloved puppies because expenses have a bad and long established habit of growing at a very fast pace.
Leaving aside the "care" expenses as you and I seem polar opposite about those of whether they are a problem or not . Bean counters see growing expenses as largesse and waste while business builders see it as investment- (spend money to make money.)
Only time can prove whether its waste or investment.
However , we do agree though on the corporate expenses have historically risen fast and consistently. FYI , I have factored in continued large corporate rises in the coming years as that's the evidence to date we have to work with. But even despite these hefty rises , should they continue at historical rates ,the growing DMF fees Ferg itemized this morning (great job too) the underlying profit will now out pace them from here. As previously posted the % rises of DMF income is now based on pretty big numbers so now out weighs the expense growth. This should become apparent next Friday.
But wait. There's more... 2 years ago we were told by Earl that corporate expense growth would level off . But its hasn't, I put this down to the stepping up build rates, 4 new acquisitions, covid , restructuring debt /bonds and all the corporate stuff associated with that. They've been bloody busy in the last 2 years so I can forgive them for now that this positive activity has all taken more people.
While I have projected the worst case of cost rises continuing into my workings , I am also quietly expecting these cost rises to level off this FY as we now have the team assembled for the up stepped work load. Now should this actually happen ( rise slower than historical), then that will be all cream on my projections. Due to the current large size of corporate costs that will be a very materially positive adjustment to my expectations in the years ahead. This is one of the key numbers I will be highly interested in next Friday.
Fair enough Mav, I am sure there will be plenty to mull over next Friday. Might take us the weekend to soak all the information in seeing as its so "easy" to understand
In the meantime here's another thought. The more acquisitions they make the greater the economies of scale with head office costs, now there's something positive I am sure we can agree on
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
HPI (House Price Index) down 1.9% in April from March - last three months down 3.5%.
Jeez ... that's an annualised figure over 20%
Maybe likes of ANZ are under estimating the fell in prices
Just as well doesn't impact Oceania else we'd go all gloomy again
Originally Posted by Fiordland Moose
Prices usually dip after March but not by that much. Looks nasty...
Westpac and ASB are saying seasonally adjusted house prices fell 0.8%-0.9% in April, or say annualised run rate of -10%. Hardly surprising to anyone, particularly retirement investors. OCA unit pricing hasn't kept pace on the way up with HPI so hopefully plenty of buffer when the resi market falls.
Anyone ever stop to think that perhaps this was a strategic decision, not bad management as some here have touted for months, prior to the recent announcement?
They know exactly what they are doing.
Originally Posted by Fiordland Moose
OCA unit pricing hasn't kept pace on the way up with HPI so hopefully plenty of buffer when the resi market falls.
certainly at these prices .90 to 1.10 all the current property stocks including OCA are tempting by valuations.
but what new taxes await ANZ.
Who can possible understand those accounts without consultants.
Yes they are.
Like everyone else I know in business I am hoping we get a change of Government next year.
Unfortunately its an occupational hazard, (really bad headache almost every time), for some who must try and understand them without consultants. It wouldn't look too good if I had to hire some other firm to explain them to me lol
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Guru Mark from Craig has same sentiments as me re how far house prices might fall.
@MarkListerNZ
With that is mind, some of those bank forecasts of a 10-15% decline don’t sound too outlandish at all, do they. Maybe they’re even a little optimistic?
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Sharon says: Pay equity for 65,000 care workers in aged care facilities, & those who care for frail, elderly, disabled & injured people in their own homes, is unravelling. Seems like we don’t care about the carers or the people they care for.
Her cartoon
both the elderly person and the care worker in her cartoon don’t look like the cheery, happy and contented people you see in Annual Reports
Last edited by winner69; 13-05-2022 at 07:53 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Originally Posted by davflaws
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