OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beau]

Some of us put in an enormous amount of work behind the scenes and are happy to share all the results of that work on a wide range of companies in a spirit of goodwill for the benefit of others. The forum and its participants are best served when people are happy to share the results of their work.

Well put and thanks to all for putting in the time and for sharing

[couta1]

Some of us put in an enormous amount of work behind the scenes and are happy to share all the results of that work on a wide range of companies in a spirit of goodwill for the benefit of others. The forum and its participants are best served when people are happy to share the results of their work.

Not sure why you put in such an enormous amount of work in this instance, you could use your time more productively elsewhere im sure. The forum is best served when more members participate in whatever way they can rather than leaving it up to a few, everyone has something to contribute whether small or large.

[Greekwatchdog]

Some of us put in an enormous amount of work behind the scenes and are happy to share all the results of that work on a wide range of companies in a spirit of goodwill for the benefit of others. The forum and its participants are best served when people are happy to share the results of their work.

That is true Beagle and you unless I miss read countless messages you are thanked accordingly. If Mav wishes to keep this conversation confidential then so be it and he shouldn't be put out by you, Winner 69 or anyone else. If you have a question go do the same thing Mav has done as with the rest of your followers.
Mav and others have also added a lot to this thread so maybe a little courtesy wouldn't go astray regarding what they see as Confidential information.

[Beagle]

I was wrong --- misread the report .... wasn't clear though

Totally agree its an absolute dog's breakfast...as expected and the lengthy headache to go with it trying to decipher it, as always happens to me like clockwork. I need to find an easier way to make a living lol

Couta1. I prefer to do my own work and rely on my own analysis because I know I can trust my own work.
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/457...your-own-canoe

[Bjauck]

Please. Come off, a pandemic is a natural disaster and this is the response.

The alternative to 'free market intervention' in this instance was all geriatrics dying an untimely death, which would hardly have been great for OCA's business model (or RYM / SUM / ARV for that matter).

So care businesses benefited doubly from the 'intervention' if they took the subsidy.
They hardly 'suffered' either, they still got fortnightly payments from the Government, but still collected bailouts (yes, that's what they were).

You have interesting conclusions from the Covid pandemic.

Care businesses have on-going costs from covid and suffer a chronic under-funding from government. The ORA side of things is a different matter.

Sure we of course don’t have a purely “free market” in NZ and the government makes political decisions as to whom it bails out in an emergency situation. Government policy has winners and losers.

[Beagle]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...268/consensus/
Looks like analysts are just as divided as some on here with one upgrade and one downgrade since the announcement and two unchanged at this stage...probably one more upgrade and one more downgrade to come through LOL.
Lowest target is $1.25, heck that's 20% north of here plus over 4% yield = minimum 24% total shareholder return in the year ahead and that's from the most conservative estimate.
Maybe they can get to $1.25 a year from now or a huge surprise and they get to the average analysts price target of $1.52...that would be a phenomenal comeback or maybe the bear market rips even more meat out of our portfolio's and it goes under $1 again...only time will tell. Sometimes I wish I had a time machine and could fast forward and see how things pan out in advance LOL

In the absence of such a miracle machine I remain very cautious of the Bear and the real estate market's remarkably rapid decline and its affect on this sector.

[bottomfeeder]

Josh Wang wants to sell down on OCA. As it's 40% off the highs, I would think that it's a buy. At the very least it should be a hold. It certainly is a buy under a dollar. Overweight in OCA? Sometimes you have to get uber overweight when it's oversold. I have 600k. No way to make money by buying high and selling low.

[percy]

That is true Beagle and you unless I miss read countless messages you are thanked accordingly. If Mav wishes to keep this conversation confidential then so be it and he shouldn't be put out by you, Winner 69 or anyone else. If you have a question go do the same thing Mav has done as with the rest of your followers.
Mav and others have also added a lot to this thread so maybe a little courtesy wouldn't go astray regarding what they see as Confidential information.

So well put.

[Rawz]

Josh Wang wants to sell down on OCA. As it's 40% off the highs, I would think that it's a buy. At the very least it should be a hold. It certainly is a buy under a dollar. Overweight in OCA? Sometimes you have to get uber overweight when it's oversold. I have 600k. No way to make money by buying high and selling low.

This is Joshua Wang's YT video which talks about him wanting to sell down a few.. not now, only after the coming rebound . This is what bottomfeeder is referring to

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O18vVvkak7Q

600k shares. wow. Nice haul

[Beagle]

This is Joshua Wang's YT video which talks about him wanting to sell down a few.. not now, only after the coming rebound . This is what bottomfeeder is referring to

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O18vVvkak7Q

600k shares. wow. Nice haul

Really bright young man and so good of him to do so much hard work and share it openly and with complete honesty and transparency even though its his largest position. A real breath of fresh air, he'll go a long way that young chap.

His investment thesis has changed because of inferior returns in the care sector. That's exactly where I'm also trapped because I can't sell what I have left at this beaten down price. I also note he's skeptical about 300+ units in FY24...maybe he's been listening to my barking or maybe he's reached that conclusion based on weak build rates in the last 2 years ?

Pivoting towards ILU developments and builds won't solve the problem of low returns in the care sector, it will only very gradually ameliorate / water it down over the years ahead which explains why I am underweight and rate this as underperform.
A useful analogy that springs to mind is investing in OCA is like riding a bicycle as fast as you can with a flat tyre that can't be fixed.