OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Baa_Baa]

Fast forward a few yrs from now and talking about 90c or $1 will only seen as the bargin of the century kinda stuff but I'm sure you already know that.

That is just not knowable. One might have thought that in 2018, 2019, 2020 etc and have been utterly wrong ... no one knew about Covid, inflation, housing market, recession and so on. The future is just not knowable.

[couta1]

That is just not knowable. One might have thought that in 2018, 2019, 2020 etc and have been utterly wrong ... no one knew about Covid, inflation, housing market, recession and so on. The future is just not knowable.

Cycles come and go just like weather patterns but the need side of this sort of business is only going to increase over the next decade, I showed a very similar chart to my wife last night and she simply said " I won't be selling any of my OCA shares" I guess she has the same outlook as Greg T and Liz Coutts and who am I to argue with her. She often says the market is unknowable yet her inner conviction and massive experience in the sector helps her have a vision that can't be stolen.

[Habits]

Cycles come and go just like weather patterns but the need side of this sort of business is only going to increase over the next decade, I showed a very similar chart to my wife last night and she simply said " I won't be selling any of my OCA shares" I guess she has the same outlook as Greg T and Liz Coutts and who am I to argue with her. She often says the market is unknowable yet her inner conviction and massive experience in the sector helps her have a vision that can't be stolen.

Hi Mate just wondering when you bought into OCA, good on you for believing in the company long term. When I sold out it turned out to be near the peak, I am just not sure if I want to buy back into a company with a cloud over its business plan.

[850man]

Fast forward a few yrs from now and talking about 90c or $1 will only seen as the bargin of the century kinda stuff but I'm sure you already know that.

Not that I'm superstitious but claims like that usually jinx the SP into a collapse

[couta1]

Hi Mate just wondering when you bought into OCA, good on you for believing in the company long term. When I sold out it turned out to be near the peak, I am just not sure if I want to buy back into a company with a cloud over its business plan.

My first buy was Dec 2017 at $1 ( Dont laugh) but my latest good sized holding started last year at a higher price, good on you for getting that top, its going to take some time to get back to that level again. My wife has an avg price of about 85c as she never touches her holding except to add a few here and there.

[Poolboy]

I'm a 76 cents boy, but I've bought a few since, umm. I'm not laughing today.

I'm fractionally up, but not by much.

[Habits]

My first buy was Dec 2017 at $1 ( Dont laugh) but my latest good sized holding started last year at a higher price, good on you for getting that top, its going to take some time to get back to that level again. My wife has an avg price of about 85c as she never touches her holding except to add a few here and there.

If a home does not increase in value it is ok with me as equity can still be created by paying off the mortgage(s). That gives security in retirement. Though no capital gain is still seen as a no-no by many ppl. However retirement companies especially OCA are reliant on housing gains and of course there arent any right now and that probably wont change within the next year. Further some retirees are weighing up the decision to move to a village if it means selling their house on a falling market but still paying full whack for a unit. (I like my 6 acre lot too much and hope i never have to make the choice) So where will next years OCA profit come from

[clearasmud]

Fast forward a few yrs from now and talking about 90c or $1 will only seen as the bargin of the century kinda stuff but I'm sure you already know that.

When it got to 89c today, I started thinking about when it went to 40c 2 years ago.

[jagger]

Further some retirees are weighing up the decision to move to a village if it means selling their house on a falling market but still paying full whack for a unit.

On the subject of not expecting capital gains and retirees; I have very little sympathy for retirees in this situation.

1) The target demographic (i.e. long-term home-owning retirees) have had 20 years of obscene real estate capital gains, far beyond anything they could have contemplated in their wildest dreams (let alone earned in paid employment during their lifetime in most cases)
2) In the vast majority of cases they will be looking for a unit priced at such a level that there is a significant buffer (i.e. >20%) between what they will pay (even at "full whack") and what they will cash out of their home. So most will be cashing out 6 figure amounts that they never realistically would/could have expected in their retirement plan.

This is a decision that for many can only be delayed for so long until health & life circumstances catch up with them.
If they are delaying because the market has turned for the only time in 20 years (very minorly so far compared to historical gains) then that's just greed as far as I'm concerned.
There will ultimately be a come-to-jesus moment when the reality of their circumstances can no longer be ignored - and that's just pent up demand that will benefit the sector.

[winner69]

On the subject of not expecting capital gains and retirees; I have very little sympathy for retirees in this situation.

1) The target demographic (i.e. long-term home-owning retirees) have had 20 years of obscene real estate capital gains, far beyond anything they could have contemplated in their wildest dreams (let alone earned in paid employment during their lifetime in most cases)
2) In the vast majority of cases they will be looking for a unit priced at such a level that there is a significant buffer (i.e. >20%) between what they will pay (even at "full whack") and what they will cash out of their home. So most will be cashing out 6 figure amounts that they never realistically would/could have expected in their retirement plan.

This is a decision that for many can only be delayed for so long until health & life circumstances catch up with them.
If they are delaying because the market has turned for the only time in 20 years (very minorly so far compared to historical gains) then that's just greed as far as I'm concerned.
There will ultimately be a come-to-jesus moment when the reality of their circumstances can no longer be ignored - and that's just pent up demand that will benefit the sector.

Jeez jagger you are hard man being so critical of oldies….though I’ll my apologies if I misunderstood your real messages because of my biases

An Irish economic commentator had a term for this generation ….the Jagger Generation …..accidental millionaires and all that stuff.

Good term that Jagger Generation eh …don’t think named after you lol


Worth a read

http://davidmcwilliams.ie/the-generation-game/