OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[jagger]

Jeez jagger you are hard man being so critical of oldies….though I’ll my apologies if I misunderstood your real messages because of my biases

An Irish economic commentator had a term for this generation ….the Jagger Generation …..accidental millionaires and all that stuff.

Good term that Jagger Generation eh …don’t think named after you lol


Worth a read

http://davidmcwilliams.ie/the-generation-game/

Heh, not critical, it's the facts of the situation.
The current generation of retirees are the wealthiest generation in human history, surpassing all those before and after.

[Rawz]

Boomers eh. Built an economy around housing. Now it’s going bust.

Jagger we must fix it. Build an economy around productive assets.

Let’s do this

[jagger]

Boomers eh. Built an economy around housing. Now it’s going bust.

Jagger we must fix it. Build an economy around productive assets.

Let’s do this

Yup 100%, I won't be sad to see that.

[Sideshow Bob]

Still getting cheaper by the day.....91c.

Not so good for the DRP shares getting tomorrow.....

[bottomfeeder]

I see inflation in Turkey or Turkiye as it is now known, is73%. While we are not at those dizzy heights, yet, it serves to illustrate that house prices just can't continue to fall. It will just cost so much more to build as inflation bites that the trickle down effect on second hand stock will mean that they must increase in value. Granted it may take a little while for the values to start increasing again, but as wages increase the race will be on. Retirement village operators are in the best situation to benefit from this. They have a captive market, usually with a lot of savings and mortgage free, with no alternatives to Care or Village life. So we have rising prices with income earning assets.

The SP, will never be much cheaper. How's that for upramping.

[SailorRob]

I see inflation in Turkey or Turkiye as it is now known, is73%. While we are not at those dizzy heights, yet, it serves to illustrate that house prices just can't continue to fall. It will just cost so much more to build as inflation bites that the trickle down effect on second hand stock will mean that they must increase in value. Granted it may take a little while for the values to start increasing again, but as wages increase the race will be on. Retirement village operators are in the best situation to benefit from this. They have a captive market, usually with a lot of savings and mortgage free, with no alternatives to Care or Village life. So we have rising prices with income earning assets.

The SP, will never be much cheaper. How's that for upramping.

Very good points. However the real value destruction could still be huge. Nominal value doesn't matter after all.

The real question is will NZ residential property market value to our GDP normalise to average OECD levels rather than be a massive anomaly.

[clearasmud]

Once this building boom is over the cost of building will drop substantially.

[RTM]

Very good points. However the real value destruction could still be huge. Nominal value doesn't matter after all.

The real question is will NZ residential property market value to our GDP normalise to average OECD levels rather than be a massive anomaly.

And then you have to ask yourself…why do we have the anomaly ? And if the answer is that it mostly reflects un-taxed capital gains…then that will have to change. Wonder which gov’ment be brave enough to do this ? Especially on three year election cycle ? Maybe it’s something that happens on the third term.

[SailorRob]

Yes but don't we have a full capital gains tax if the intention on purchasing is to make a capital gain? Which it's impossible to argue that it isn't, so maybe just not policed.

Residential property in whangarei sells at 35 x revenue. 9 times the price of Google and 16 times the price of Berkshire. Which are the better businesses and what are the margin structures?

[jagger]

I see inflation in Turkey or Turkiye as it is now known, is73%. While we are not at those dizzy heights, yet, it serves to illustrate that house prices just can't continue to fall. It will just cost so much more to build as inflation bites that the trickle down effect on second hand stock will mean that they must increase in value. Granted it may take a little while for the values to start increasing again, but as wages increase the race will be on. Retirement village operators are in the best situation to benefit from this. They have a captive market, usually with a lot of savings and mortgage free, with no alternatives to Care or Village life. So we have rising prices with income earning assets.

The SP, will never be much cheaper. How's that for upramping.

The 'value' of a house is closely linked to how much you can leverage up the young FHB suckers into the market to create liquidity throughout the entire chain.

Sure there might be a shortage but at high inflation the cost of money (and therefore credit impulse) has such a detrimental impact on 'value'.

We've gone from short term (1-2yr) rates of ~2% to ~6%, like com'on something has to give.