OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[SailorRob]

It all depends on the trading SP margin. That's why traders love volatility. The bigger and quicker the movements the more chance you will complete a successful trade. Traders do not necessarily trade all or large parcels of shares. Sometimes you have to whittle away at profits. After all no one knows what tomorrow will bring. I would only trade a full holding if there was a significant uplift in the SP. Brokerage is only a small cost in any case. Mind you I have modified my trading now. I am a long term holder of OCA and does not form a part of my trading stock, since 31 March. Now SKT is another kettle of fish. I don't trade ARV either since 31 March.

The bigger and quicker the movements the more chance you will complete a successful trade?

Really?

What about the other person that by definition is required for you to make your 'successful' trade.

For every buyer there is a seller.

For every seller there is a buyer.

Surely with the bigger quicker movements each wont have more chance of success, so which one of the two will?

[Baa_Baa]

...Brokerage is only a small cost in any case.

There's my point right there, notwithstanding tax on profits on top of brokerage. Brokerage is only small for small trades, or negligible if trading on a low brokerage platform. For someone who has a large or very large holding, brokerage can be a significant minus eroding profits, buying in, swapping in an out and in again is not realistic, even if liquidity enabled it. Retail investors are disadvantaged by brokerage that the big players don't pay, including those who run their bots manipulating the SP.

Let's just say if you're moving a few hundred or thousand shares, sure brokerage on a platform like Sharsies isn't much of a problem unless you lose a trade or can't afford the tax on profits. Doing that with 10's or 100's of thousands of shares is a big hole in your overall gains which dividends and share price appreciation are hard pressed to cover, let alone be profitable.

Another way of looking at it is, say OCA are paying 4.35% dividend yield for doing nothing (which is pretty miserly as the market is changing to value, but best in sector), then in one year regardless of SP, there's 4.35% gains minus broking cost on your holding. Doing nothing, that dividend repeats annually with six monthly payouts, and the brokerage does not. 5 years or 10 years later, whatever the SP is doesn't matter much as your returns are the dividends. Hopefully the SP has increased as well, but even that doesn't matter unless you plan to sell them, at which time you pay the brokerage and the tax on profit.

Long term is long term. It's way easier imo to time accumulation of an equity asset when the market gifts it under NTA, than trade a return that is exposed to multiple brokerage fees and tax on profits. But fair enough, if it's chump change we're talking about, trading is a bit of fun, but if it's about moving a large or very large holding, well that's a different story altogether and probably counterintuitive as to why such a large holding was accumulated in the first place.

[Baa_Baa]

Tough being the Chair -- you order everybody to take the shares instead of divie cash and then you have to step up to support the share price

May see more directors buying this week in an attempt to stop the rot

Interesting to see how your narrative has moved as the bear market took over. Quite disappointing really, or cynical at best, like you're actually a momentum trader as well as some others but the market turned and you didn't act fast enough and been left holding the baby?

Anyway, you'd have to wonder why most of the board and some of the management choose to accumulate through the DRP at this time rather than freak out and sell their shares. You think it's because Liz "order everyone to". That's bit far fetched, even the newbies here can see your fear. Got caught holding and now slag the Chair, the board, the management?

Maybe the board and the management see a bright future, beyond the current market pessimism? Who's best placed to make that judgement, you, me, or the insiders? Wouldn't make much sense for them to accumulate shares if they thought it was a dog, would it. I'd guess they reckon the company is worth a lot more and one day the market will double or triple and their confidence in the business will be rewarded.

In the meantime they'll be paid a best in sector dividend and entitlement to more equity capital, on top of their income.

[Curly]

Interesting to see how your narrative has moved as the bear market took over. Quite disappointing really, or cynical at best, like you're actually a momentum trader as well as some others but the market turned and you didn't act fast enough and been left holding the baby?

Anyway, you'd have to wonder why most of the board and some of the management choose to accumulate through the DRP at this time rather than freak out and sell their shares. You think it's because Liz "order everyone to". That's bit far fetched, even the newbies here can see your fear. Got caught holding and now slag the Chair, the board, the management?

Maybe the board and the management see a bright future, beyond the current market pessimism? Who's best placed to make that judgement, you, me, or the insiders? Wouldn't make much sense for them to accumulate shares if they thought it was a dog, would it. I'd guess they reckon the company is worth a lot more and one day the market will double or triple and their confidence in the business will be rewarded.

In the meantime they'll be paid a best in sector dividend and entitlement to more equity capital, on top of their income.

Well said Baa Baa. Nice to read a reasoned post and get away from emotional vested game changer posts.

[bottomfeeder]

I knew someone was holding the price down, Jardens eh. Hope that has stopped, OCA now up a cent or two. Why would they be selling at a low. That's right, the way fund managers make money, buy high and sell low.

[Gerald]

I knew someone was holding the price down, Jardens eh. Hope that has stopped, OCA now up a cent or two. Why would they be selling at a low. That's right, the way fund managers make money, buy high and sell low.

Jarden isn't a fund manager?

[bottomfeeder]

Jarden isn't a fund manager?

My Bad, sorry Jarden, but who are you selling on behalf.

[Baa_Baa]

I knew someone was holding the price down, Jardens eh. Hope that has stopped, OCA now up a cent or two. Why would they be selling at a low. That's right, the way fund managers make money, buy high and sell low.

Fairly significant net sell down at about 19% of the total trading volume during the period of the notice. No guarantee the selling is over, only that they don't have to disclose it anymore. If you want to try and answer the "why would they be selling at a low"?, check whether they were a buyer/accumulator during the covid 2020 plunge and rebound when SP was a lot lower than now. Truth is, you'll never find the answer to 'why they're selling question' unless they've published a re-weighting in their portfolio's balancing or a downgrade/sell to their clients.

[winner69]

At least Harbour have increased their holding ...even took the DRIP

Most of Jarden's selling is related to DIMS (discretionary investment management services) - maybe a few rich clients they manage gave them the message 'we don't want any Oceania) .... but as baabaa says we'll never know why they decided to sell their clients shares .... and keep most of theirs

Probably a SSH in a week ago when whey again nudge over 5% anyway

[Muse]

Jarden dropped two large research reports on the RV and aged care industry in recent days.

Interesting that while SUM is their sector pick it is more from a catalyst and TA perspective, while according to their analysis OCA offers the highest prospective 1 year total returns (inc. divs).

OCA: OW, TP $1.20, 32.7% projected return
ARV: OW, TP $1.60, 18.8% projected return
SUM: OW, TP $11.50, 17.2% projected return
RYM: Neutral, TP $9.50, 10.8% projected return