OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bull....]

I thought deaths were a good thing for sector, plenty on the waiting lists ready to jump into the better homes.

true good for re-sales initially but i guess if covid becomes widespread and numbers get bigger and slightly younger the pool of prospective purchasers may get affected as well.
the govt dont care anymore so its possible ?
and just to throw a + in i guess the lower number of residents might help with staffing problems

[percy]

No one or anything is going to stop the tsunami of retirees over the next few decades.
Govt can not cope,and never will.

[SailorRob]

Do any of you ever stop to think about the potential impact of posting your (presumably) sarcastic comments here? Does it ever occur to your capitalist, money focused pea brains that there could be forum members here who have lost someone to covid, or who may currently have a loved one or dear friend who is very unwell with covid?

Nah ... didn't think so.

EDIT: Thank you for the negative rep vote Gerald (whoever the hell you are), and for your suggestion that I contribute something of value, rather than "clogging up this thread." Do a search for my name in this thread, and you'll see that I have contributed quite a lot, as someone working in the sector. There is more to "contributing" than financial analysis. Those of us working in the sector have a far better handle on it than you ever will buddy. Have a wonderful evening.

While I understand the point of your post, if indeed these people are capitalist money focused pea brains, this is a very good thing.

Money is just a reflection of goods and services in the economy and thus you can substitute one for the other. Someone who is hell bent on making money is usually hell bent on creating goods and services which are desired by the people, and creating them in a way that is very efficient. So maximising the amount of wonderful goods and services which make our existence better with the least input of resources.

Billionaires are so because they have created an immense amount of goods and services and made peoples lives far better. Due the the amazing system of capitalism, most minimum wage workers in NZ have identical phones to a billionaire - as well as many other things that are no different to what a billionaire has, as they both have access to the best of what there is, obviously not with everything.

Imagine the forum members you speak of, if their loved ones only had access to medical technology, care and services created and provided by the state. We can see plenty of examples of this system across the world.

Believe me an aged care facility in a system that doesn't embrace money focused pea brained capitalism is not a place that you want to even imagine unless you like to think about folk rotting in their own waste.

[Rawz]

Good post Rob!

[Waltzing]

"Billionaires are so because they have created an immense amount of goods and services and made peoples lives far better."

right .....

arrhhh ... all the time? or generally .....

[Baa_Baa]

Imo don't knock Justakiwi, she's a good hearted soul who brings a unique and valuable perspective to our RV threads, while also being an investor in the company. I can understand her frustration completely with the trolls and flippant posters who seem to enjoy disparaging OCA albeit they have such a shallow understanding of RV care, or the company itself.

I don't make a distinction between a troll and a sarcastic off-the-cuff twit. Strangely the same trolls seem not to have much or anything to say on any other RV threads, such is their obsession with OCA. There can be only one reason for that, they like OCA's prospects but want the SP to be lower and to be confident good times will come there after, before they take a position. They're traders usually, or disgruntled investors caught holding who are trader in denial, focused on capital value rather than underlying and long term value.

Their transparency is blindingly obvious, transparent like a pane of glass anyone can see through. Attack the company all you want, and supportive posters, it falls on deaf ears, but leave the messenger alone. Many thousands of posts over many years and an anaemic reputation speaks volumes here.

[SailorRob]

"Billionaires are so because they have created an immense amount of goods and services and made peoples lives far better."

right .....

arrhhh ... all the time? or generally .....

With Billionairs almost all of the time. Millionaires generally but not even close to all the time.

[SailorRob]

There are some who are unfortunately no longer here, we'll miss their insights, that have tended to go on an on about OCA's exposure to nursing/carer costs, based on a perception that the word 'care' in their portfolio of accomodation means a linear amount of care workers, ergo costs, for each 'unit' that has care services. That isn't the case at all.

At the old age and end of life high needs end of the spectrum is hospital care, it has the highest proportion of carers to residents. That proportion reduces as the spectrum of care reduces to resident (rest home) care, ILU care, apartments, villas care and so forth. There is not a linear relationship of carer cost to all dwellings that include 'care services' in their name.

The 'continuum of care' is a major selling point for OCA, where residents can buy into apartments and ILU's at one end of the spectrum can progress through to old age at the other end, with proportionate care available to them.

Many sites actually have no onsite continuum of care across the whole spectrum, they are just ILU's, villas and apartments. Here's a good place to learn more about the OCA portfolio, you'll see many have high quality accomodation with care services available, but are not continuum through to elder rest home, hospital or end of life care. Correspondingly, the ratio of carers and nurses, and costs, are lower than the words 'care services' might imply. https://www.villageguide.co.nz/operator/oceania

It's best imo not to generalise that carer expenses are some linear proportion to all 'units' that have care services in their name, or that all OCA facilities that say 'care' are in fact catering solely to care, as they are not. Moreover it is access to care as required that many facilities are offering, not guaranteed onsite high cost dedicated carers per population of residents.

These things are not and cannot be found in financial reports which focus only on numbers and history. If one DYODD, which some have done here to great lengths, they can be discovered elsewhere, usually hiding in plain sight. If you're looking in the right places.

OCA is still the highest dividend percentage payer of the sector which speaks to the sector, or the risk proportionment, all of which are frankly awful dividend payers considering their excess cash flows and profits. Care is nothing really, except a rounding error on the overall business. Any which way you look at it, care expenses really are just a cost of doing business, for all of them. The business is property.

The very safe margin all RV's apply in valuing their properties, and the infrequent revaluations (which determine NTA) means there is a very high degree of wiggle room across all of them. The market valuation is another thing altogether, which only matters if you care about capital market value (which means you want to sell higher than the mug you bought off).

Reflect imho on the tailwinds in the RV sector and the historical success of all the listed RV's and you'll see that opportunity presents itself only occasionally, to accumulate quality equity assets at depressed market prices. These are those times. It is upon us now.

Don't waste a good recession.

Excellent post.

Would you be able to describe the OCA business model, just very basically. How they make money and intend to in future. Might sound like an odd request but you mentioned some interesting points regarding care being a rounding error and the actual business being property.

[Bjauck]

Do any of you ever stop to think about the potential impact of posting your (presumably) sarcastic comments here? Does it ever occur to your capitalist, money focused pea brains that there could be forum members here who have lost someone to covid, or who may currently have a loved one or dear friend who is very unwell with covid?

Nah ... didn't think so.

EDIT: Thank you for the negative rep vote Gerald (whoever the hell you are), and for your suggestion that I contribute something of value, rather than "clogging up this thread." Do a search for my name in this thread, and you'll see that I have contributed quite a lot, as someone working in the sector. There is more to "contributing" than financial analysis. Those of us working in the sector have a far better handle on it than you ever will buddy. Have a wonderful evening.

My apologies if I added to anyone's grief and stress. I have had several extended family who were taken by Covid prior to the vaccines (they were under 65yo) & currently a family member is in hospital with covid cases all about. Covid is the black dog that ever stalks in the background.

However life does and must continue. Efficient investment does channel money to where it is needed. Efficient profitable investment provides tax revenue for medical and palliative care.

[Waltzing]

Off topic... B's verus M's...

with a lot of B's created in countries like Russia, the middles east and china has a statistical study been done on the topic of contributions of the B's? Would be a very interesting study to look at. But if the B's arnt all good fellows lets not show it to politicians....

wonder if the products and services have in the end destroyed the planet... oh well ... next time ...