OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

REINZ August data out

HPI down 1.3% from July - last 3 months down 4.7% and 5.8% from a year ago

Sharon from ANZ commented The August data are consistent with our (very uncertain) forecast that house prices will fall 15% peak to trough – they are down 9.5% already.

Just as well Oceania has to this buffer - so no worries

But I would hazard a guess that if they recalculated the Embedded Value that Mav highlighted with these current trends it would now be lower

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Defaul...ust%202022.pdf

[winner69]

Jeez, maybe the 'buffer' won't save Oceania after going by this headline in BusinessDesk

'Biggest' six-monthly drop in house prices in 30 years – REINZ


https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/p...30-years-reinz

[bottomfeeder]

Jeez, maybe the 'buffer' won't save Oceania after going by this headline in BusinessDesk

'Biggest' six-monthly drop in house prices in 30 years – REINZ


https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/p...30-years-reinz

There is no law that says Oceania and all other Retirement village operators must follow the news assessments and kowtow to a lower sale value of units. Costs of rebuilding new, refurbishing and upgrading are influenced by inflation which England is looking to double figures. Perhaps here as well. There is a demand for retirement units not connected to the financial implications but to necessity. Also while we all like to leave some money to our kids when we leave this mortal coil, the higher level of duty for most retirees is to themselves first. You cant take it with you, and in this modern age your kids mostly have just too busy lives to interrupt them to look after their parents, especially when serious care is required.

So I am not concerned about the current SP, it is a blip by overly worried investors, and wont last long.

[jagger]

Jeez, maybe the 'buffer' won't save Oceania after going by this headline in BusinessDesk

'Biggest' six-monthly drop in house prices in 30 years – REINZ


https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/p...30-years-reinz

Jeez, they went up 30% or whatever in the 12 months before that.
The sky is hardly falling.

People have some outlandish loss aversion bias on housing.
It's become a really ugly part of kiwi culture.

[winner69]

Those property related headlines adversely impacted retirement stocks today

OCA, RYM, RAD down a few per cent and SUM a little bit

Market must be thinking that sales might struggle a bit and that those embedded values are going to fall

[Curly]

Those property related headlines adversely impacted retirement stocks today

OCA, RYM, RAD down a few per cent and SUM a little bit

Market must be thinking that sales might struggle a bit and that those embedded values are going to fall

Something about storms and tea cups

[Baa_Baa]

Those property related headlines adversely impacted retirement stocks today

OCA, RYM, RAD down a few per cent and SUM a little bit

Market must be thinking that sales might struggle a bit and that those embedded values are going to fall

Overly dramatic as usual lately, not sure what's got up your nose with OCA, it is down 1 cent today, 1.03%. Still the highest dividend yield of the sector listed RV's.

[Baa_Baa]

Something about storms and tea cups

Exactly, not sure why he doesn't post exactly the same things in every RV thread and the combined Retirement thread and the other site. Surely it relates to them as well? Even if OCA was only 1 cent down, 1.03%. OCA the whipping boy.

[winner69]

Overly dramatic as usual lately, not sure what's got up your nose with OCA, it is down 1 cent today, 1.03%. Still the highest dividend yield of the sector listed RV's.

Down 2 cents today …2.06%

Just highlighting that such a drop reported in property prices will probably reduce that much touted ‘embedded value’ which as the lead indicator of future profits is not good.

But I should realise it’s not the thing to say anything that could upset the believers ….but I don’t think I’ll apologise for this.

this thread is a proxy thread for the sector in general anyway so just a good as any place to share my thoughts

[850man]

Overly dramatic as usual lately, not sure what's got up your nose with OCA, it is down 1 cent today, 1.03%. Still the highest dividend yield of the sector listed RV's.

And only RV trading at a significant discount to NTA.