OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Balance]

NZ fiscal settings have needed major reform for decades. Also, have we really needed foreign investors to be allowed to invest in and consequently increase price pressure on NZ residential housing, when residential housing has already been more appealing than investing in the stock exchange and in business for so many NZers? We want as many NZ owner occupiers* as possible, so that that they can sell their homes to move into an ORA unit in an OCA village!

Certainly with current fiscal settings and investment markets, NZ relies on net migration, rather than productivity increase, for most of its economic growth

* Or many NZers with a sufficiently large investment portfolio (if they do not own a home) to be able to buy an ORA in a village.

I am simply pointing out the observations of bankers of what is happening out there - they make money irrespective of what's happening as long as they are on top of macro-economic factors at play & mitigate & manage their lending risks accordingly. Take it or leave it - how they see the economic picture unfolding has a huge impact on the flow of funds out there.

Remember that foreign buyers were blamed for pricing properties & homes out of the reach of first home buyers?

Turned out that it's actually government policies (cheap monies, horrendous compliance & regulatory costs, rental regulations etc) which pushed up property prices to the stratosphere in the last 5 years.

As I have written before, NZ property cycle tends to be 5 years up and 5 years down.

All signs point towards even tougher times in 2023 and we are but just the first year in the down cycle!

[bull....]

I am simply pointing out the observations of bankers of what is happening out there - they make money irrespective of what's happening as long as they are on top of macro-economic factors at play & mitigate & manage their lending risks accordingly. Take it or leave it - how they see the economic picture unfolding has a huge impact on the flow of funds out there.

Remember that foreign buyers were blamed for pricing properties & homes out of the reach of first home buyers?

Turned out that it's actually government policies (cheap monies, horrendous compliance & regulatory costs, rental regulations etc) which pushed up property prices to the stratosphere in the last 5 years.

As I have written before, NZ property cycle tends to be 5 years up and 5 years down.

All signs point towards even tougher times in 2023 and we are but just the first year in the down cycle!

so what your saying balance is oca stock price is headed down .... covid lows maybe ? in fact all RV stocks i guess is the implication

[Rawz]

so what your saying balance is oca stock price is headed down .... covid lows maybe ? in fact all RV stocks i guess is the implication

market has already priced in what Balance is saying. Come on just look at the SP

[Balance]

market has already priced in what Balance is saying. Come on just look at the SP

I think you could be right myself.

But I also cannot see anyone really stepping up to load up on the RV stocks knowing the state of the property and financial markets.

A takeover perhaps?

[RTM]

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/bank-fina...ec0f7-97978245

Another indicator of how tight things seem to be getting in the financing world.

[mike2020]

I have a Eureka moment for you all.

The banks and supermarkets are creaming it. Even the power companies are making record profits off presumably renewable inputs (the price of wind and water has increased?) and are signaling an 11% increase as well, great div for the 51% main shareholder.

Let the RVs fall into a state requiring govt investment then you will see a rapid return to profitability. Its still the desired takeover right?

[Bjauck]

I am simply pointing out the observations of bankers of what is happening out there - they make money irrespective of what's happening as long as they are on top of macro-economic factors at play & mitigate & manage their lending risks accordingly. Take it or leave it - how they see the economic picture unfolding has a huge impact on the flow of funds out there.

Remember that foreign buyers were blamed for pricing properties & homes out of the reach of first home buyers?

Turned out that it's actually government policies (cheap monies, horrendous compliance & regulatory costs, rental regulations etc) which pushed up property prices to the stratosphere in the last 5 years.

As I have written before, NZ property cycle tends to be 5 years up and 5 years down.

All signs point towards even tougher times in 2023 and we are but just the first year in the down cycle!

NZ housing failure has various causes, however Rental regulations? How do required standards of accommodation and security of tenancy compare to what is required in other OECD countries?

Most countries ensure that foreign buyers cannot buy residences on the same terms as locals. Even Australia requires foreign approval and levies extra tax on foreigner purchases to try to help ensure locals are not cut out of their own country

[bottomfeeder]

Must be oversold. Half the value from its highs, lost 500 million market cap.

Now 79 cents. If this keeps going, I will have to look for a tall building with an open window.

[winner69]

Must be oversold. Half the value from its highs, lost 500 million market cap.

Now 79 cents. If this keeps going, I will have to look for a tall building with an open window.

Spooky eh

Some punters love Fibonacci numbers

Gone past the 23.6% retracement from that $1.60 high ..... and the 38.2% retracement ..... and the 50.0% retracement (which was at $1.06) .... and the 61.8% retracement

Next stop maybe the 78.6% retracement at 74 cents

[Rawz]

Spooky eh

Some punters love Fibonacci numbers

Gone past the 23.6% retracement from that $1.60 high ..... and the 38.2% retracement ..... and the 50.0% retracement (which was at $1.06) .... and the 61.8% retracement

Next stop maybe the 78.6% retracement at 74 cents

What does all that mean?