OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[davflaws]

What does all that mean?

It means that it hasn't hit bottom - yet!

[Baa_Baa]

Must be oversold. Half the value from its highs, lost 500 million market cap.

Now 79 cents. If this keeps going, I will have to look for a tall building with an open window.

It might be small consolation but daily traded volume tells a story of who's setting market prices. Daily volume average this time last year was around 1m per day, falling to 500k late August, then a steep decline in October to 135k average now. It only takes 1 share sold lower into the bid to set the market price. Most days there are a lot of small volume trades going on, moving the market price.

[winner69]

What does all that mean?

Try this https://www.cornertrader.com/export/...-fibonacci.pdf

Nature often explains a lot of things and a good guide for the future ..... the Golden Ratio is cool

[Baa_Baa]

Spooky eh

Some punters love Fibonacci numbers

Gone past the 23.6% retracement from that $1.60 high ..... and the 38.2% retracement ..... and the 50.0% retracement (which was at $1.06) .... and the 61.8% retracement

Next stop maybe the 78.6% retracement at 74 cents

My chart has the 78.6% fib retrace from Covid low to ATH, at 64 cents. There's a technical support above that 73 cents. Pity it's not a more rosy picture. Sentiment rules the market so until something changes that for the better, this will just leak away for as long as it takes. The whole sector is in the same vice grip.

[winner69]

It might be small consolation but daily traded volume tells a story of who's setting market prices. Daily volume average this time last year was around 1m per day, falling to 500k late August, then a steep decline in October to 135k average now. It only takes 1 share sold lower into the bid to set the market price. Most days there are a lot of small volume trades going on, moving the market price.

So 'small guys' doing the selling .... not the 'big guys' .... yes?

Maybe 'small guys' think it's all bad ....but 'big guys' don't seem to think its any good either

Question then .... if the 'big guys' think it is good when you reckon they will step in and drive the price back over a buck

Liz and Greg probably have to wait until after the results announcemet before they can help out ....Liz in particular would love to average down as she's under water quite a lot now

[850man]

Shares are being hoovered up, perhaps those with a longer term intentions are doing it slowly to avoid pushing the price up and to take advantage of those weaker handed

[mike2020]

My chart has the 78.6% fib retrace from Covid low to ATH, at 64 cents. There's a technical support above that 73 cents. Pity it's not a more rosy picture. Sentiment rules the market so until something changes that for the better, this will just leak away for as long as it takes. The whole sector is in the same vice grip.

I just checked my phone and the power is at 64%. I'm placing an order now.

[aquaman]

Well this is the moment ive been waiting for, below 80. I will now start to add to my holding in OCA and will continually add as funds allow as long as it stays below 80.
I agree with balance around the 5 year cycle and im investing for at least 5 years but with a target of ten. With a six figure No of shares already im happy to accumulate
further at these rates. If you are looking at a shorter term this may not suit you. We all have different motives.

[ronaldson]

No word yet when the half-year results will be released to NZX despite most other listed entities reporting with a 30 September full or half-year balance date having already done so. Also, no trading update at least since the AGM in June when there was some commentary on the first two-month period.

The CEO said in June " we also have an eye to those sites that may no longer fit the portfolio and divestment of a few sites will likely be part of this year's activity" but again no word.

It was stated that OCA have 2900 staff and 4000 residents (at 31 March). I looked at the ARV Annual Report as at 31/03/22 for a comparison and they seem to have a team of 2700 serving 6750 residents. While OCA currently have a high build rate ratio to their existing scale it does seem that staffing levels on a per resident basis will inevitably be a drag on performance. No doubt that is one reason for the intention to divest at some locations where care beds dominate, and the government subsidy is inadequate to continue.

We will have to wait and see but an information vacuum doesn't assist pricing in the market!

[bottomfeeder]

While OCA currently have a high build rate ratio to their existing scale it does seem that staffing levels on a per resident basis will inevitably be a drag on performance. No doubt that is one reason for the intention to divest at some locations where care beds dominate, and the government subsidy is inadequate to continue.

We will have to wait and see but an information vacuum doesn't assist pricing in the market!

It would be short sighted and a kneejerk reaction to drop care beds. The short funding by Government will right itself. If everyone were to divest themselves of care units, then the price you are going to get is bottom dollar anyway. They should hang in there and work on the model. Shortfalls on funding is paid by the resident anyway. I see OCA is advertising their joint care suites on TV. Now those only have the basic funding by Government, the excess is paid by the resident. Only the basic care units are losing money as the resident has no money to pay the excess shortfall. We will see that elderly that have no funds to speak of, will not find any care units to live in and then the Government will have to stump up or they will be homeless. There is no reason why a profit orientated business will lose money on their care suites, but there will be a time lag as the basic units are reoccupied by those able to pay the excess cost. After all over the coming years, there will be no shortage of elderly and most have money.