OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Muse]

thanks baa baa. Seems I need to spread some reputation around before giving you a positive rep comment. also good insight - trying to crack the nut that is true (or close enough to it) care losses an important first step. cheers.

[ronaldson]

The Fair Work Commission in Australia has just ruled (in an interim decision to expedite the ability to implement its ruling) that more than 300,000 aged care workers will get a pay rise of 15% after finding that their work had been historically undervalued.

These are folk providing direct care in nursing homes and in in-home care.

The Albanese government has committed to funding the pay rise.

[Bjauck]

The Fair Work Commission in Australia has just ruled (in an interim decision to expedite the ability to implement its ruling) that more than 300,000 aged care workers will get a pay rise of 15% after finding that their work had been historically undervalued.

These are folk providing direct care in nursing homes and in in-home care.

The Albanese government has committed to funding the pay rise.

It needs to be done, but who and which taxpayers will end up for these pay rises?

[ronaldson]

Clearly this determination will rachet up pressure within the sector here, and on Andrew Little. It may also contribute to exacerbating the flight of our workforce to Australia.

[Balance]

It needs to be done, but who and which taxpayers will end up for these pay rises?

Whoever employs them.

RV makes plenty so time for their workers to get fairly paid as well?

[Baa_Baa]

The Fair Work Commission in Australia has just ruled (in an interim decision to expedite the ability to implement its ruling) that more than 300,000 aged care workers will get a pay rise of 15% after finding that their work had been historically undervalued.

These are folk providing direct care in nursing homes and in in-home care.

The Albanese government has committed to funding the pay rise.

You're onto it! That 'just ruled' was literally yesterday, well spotted. In fact the ruling is for an 'interim' 15% increase, with subsequent stages considering the Union's application for 25% (a further 10%).

Here's the decision summary, if one reads it they will no doubt see the similarities with NZ: https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/sit...00-summary.pdf

The full decision is a lengthy document [2022] FWCFB 200 (pdf)

Excerpt:

"An Interim Increase
[31] As to form and quantum of the interim increase the Full Bench concluded that it was satisfied that a 15 per cent interim increase in minimum wages of the direct care classifications in the Aged Care and SCHADS Awards and for nurses working in aged care covered by the Nurses Award is ‘plainly justified by work value reasons’.

[32] The Full Bench made it clear that the interim increase does not conclude its consideration of the Unions’ claim for a 25 per cent increase for other employees, namely administrative and support aged care employees. Nor was the Full Bench suggesting that the 15 per cent interim increase necessarily exhausts the extent of the increase justified by work value reasons in respect of direct care aged care employees. Whether any further increase is justified will be the subject of submissions in Stage 3 of these proceedings."

[Bjauck]

Whoever employs them.

RV makes plenty so time for their workers to get fairly paid as well?

Of course. In NZ, rest home employment fair pay cost increases will no doubt be adequately covered under the maximum contributions, and rest homes don’t make as much as villages.

[Panda-NZ-]

It needs to be done, but who and which taxpayers will end up for these pay rises?

Aussies have large super accounts (approx $4T) combined with a housing market which has seen superior gains compared to NZ.

The residents could pay for it themselves. in theory.

[winner69]

Yeah I understand and agree with all that. I'm just nagged by the thought if it takes customers a lot longer to sell their place, does that mean slower turnover while the market remains in a funk, and if that impacts underlying earnings. ……….

I’m sure the slowing housing market (both number of sales and the increasing number of days to sell) has or is going to impact RV Underlying Earnings …….at least versus expectations sales volumes wise and possibly margins as well

[Maverick]

Hey Winner and Fiordland M, have a look at this:

This was posted by SUM 2.5 months ago…..
“We’re not seeing excesses of stock or any changes in demand either, our available retirement units have stayed steady, and demand doesn’t appear to be tethered to the property market.
“Enquiry levels remain high, and waitlists are strong and currently we’re not seeing any increase in days to sell or settle for people moving into a Summerset home. Our total sales for the half were 511, limited principally by availability of stock.”

Then this 1 month ago…
The Summerset CEO Scott Scoullar said the result was pleasing and demand for retirement living was strong.
“While the wider property market has seen a decline, interest in our villages has remained robust throughout Q3. Our waitlists grew five percent during the quarter with average levels of new monthly enquiries up approximately 15% compared with the first half of the year and up 18% compared to Q3 2021.

Then there is this from ARV 1 month ago….
We see continued strong demand for our retirement living offer with prices for retirement units remaining firm, even in a changing property market. Over the last two years there have been rapid increases in residential property prices, but our price increases have been conservative. This has provided us with a ‘pricing buffer’ and an ability to increase prices, despite the current residential market conditions.
We continue to see elevated levels of enquiries, particularly for villas and care suites. We are not seeing any build-up of stock and our deposited waitlists remain strong.

So I can't see any material problems so far within the industry. I also haven't seen any material problems in real life with anyone's real estate deals either. Seems to me everything is carrying on just fine so far…