OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[ronaldson]

The reality is (and as demonstrated by the comments above) that the " Boomer wave " has started to arrive and should not be underestimated. The first of the immediate post WW2 babies, born 1946 and beyond, are now reaching their mid 70's, the perfect age to enter an RV environment. They had a good life with free education, full employment mostly during their working lives, a responsive health system, and a very high proportion ended up owning their own home mortgage free.

This has been talked about for a long time, but it is actually here now. You can talk about the influence of the property market, interest rates and other economic statistics but in a wider macro sense nothing trumps the arrival of the Boomers as age appropriate for this industry's products as the prime factor driving the current outcome.

[Habits]

Hey Winner and Fiordland M, have a look at this:

This was posted by SUM 2.5 months ago…..
“We’re not seeing excesses of stock or any changes in demand either, our available retirement units have stayed steady, and demand doesn’t appear to be tethered to the property market.
“Enquiry levels remain high, and waitlists are strong and currently we’re not seeing any increase in days to sell or settle for people moving into a Summerset home. Our total sales for the half were 511, limited principally by availability of stock.”

Then this 1 month ago…
The Summerset CEO Scott Scoullar said the result was pleasing and demand for retirement living was strong.
“While the wider property market has seen a decline, interest in our villages has remained robust throughout Q3. Our waitlists grew five percent during the quarter with average levels of new monthly enquiries up approximately 15% compared with the first half of the year and up 18% compared to Q3 2021.

Then there is this from ARV 1 month ago….
We see continued strong demand for our retirement living offer with prices for retirement units remaining firm, even in a changing property market. Over the last two years there have been rapid increases in residential property prices, but our price increases have been conservative. This has provided us with a ‘pricing buffer’ and an ability to increase prices, despite the current residential market conditions.
We continue to see elevated levels of enquiries, particularly for villas and care suites. We are not seeing any build-up of stock and our deposited waitlists remain strong.

So I can't see any material problems so far within the industry. I also haven't seen any material problems in real life with anyone's real estate deals either. Seems to me everything is carrying on just fine so far…

They're not going to say the opposite Mav.

[winner69]

They're not going to say the opposite Mav.

And that’s why at the Oceania ASM when asked if the incessant full-page ads in newspapers from all village companies indicated slower demand the response was ‘it’s all about marketing for brand recognition’

Yeah right

[Rawz]

Spooky eh

Some punters love Fibonacci numbers

Gone past the 23.6% retracement from that $1.60 high ..... and the 38.2% retracement ..... and the 50.0% retracement (which was at $1.06) .... and the 61.8% retracement

Next stop maybe the 78.6% retracement at 74 cents

So I did my homework on this Fib stuff and basically once you calculate the levels the percentage represents the odds of that level holding?

So we are close to the bottom if you go by this method. Only problem I see is it can become a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy? Like everyone believes 74cents is next level of high support so why buy now, buy 74,75cents and save some money. Then there’s lots of demand at this level and magically a bit of support

[Baa_Baa]

They're not going to say the opposite Mav.

And that’s why at the Oceania ASM when asked if the incessant full-page ads in newspapers from all village companies indicated slower demand the response was ‘it’s all about marketing for brand recognition’

Yeah right

Interesting that you'd imply the CEO's of Summerset and Arvida are lying about solid demand, robust sales and prices, and reasons for marketing. Do you have something that supports your views?

[Maverick]

And that’s why at the Oceania ASM when asked if the incessant full-page ads in newspapers from all village companies indicated slower demand the response was ‘it’s all about marketing for brand recognition’

Yeah right

Was in a discussion recently about the swarm of RV ads running around the 6pm news recently. To me that also suggests too much supply and competition.

The response was, it IS just about branding plain and simple. On reflection I now have to agree. There's no specifics, no prices, no …”wait there’s more”…there's nothing actually for sale.
The companies are just laying into boomer brains (the only demographic that still watch the 6 pm news ) that these 4 companies are the only safe contenders to choose between when the time soon comes.

We all know from watching the actual news we no longer trust the catholic ones, not for profit ones nor those smaller offerings where there always seems to be one in hot water over something.

It's exactly the same as ASB’s “Ben and his tiny wife” , ANZs cricket family or Westpac's friendly sasquatch. These do nothing more than build brand trust and that's exactly what consumers must have when taking on a life long commitment such as an “until death”mortgage or the very last home.

It would be a very foolish or short term thinking to cut costs in this area. perhaps that's why I havnt seen a Bupa advert lately, being window dressed for sale?

Fun fact… Westpac havent had to pay even a cent to “where the wild things are” for any copyright as apparently it's not in any way connected……as you would say Winner …yeah right.

[percy]

Sensible comments Maverick.

[BlackPeter]

So I did my homework on this Fib stuff and basically once you calculate the levels the percentage represents the odds of that level holding?

So we are close to the bottom if you go by this method. Only problem I see is it can become a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy? Like everyone believes 74cents is next level of high support so why buy now, buy 74,75cents and save some money. Then there’s lots of demand at this level and magically a bit of support

Now you understand the fundamental principal of any TA! TA is in part about better describing the movement of investors (e.g. looking at volumes) ... and the reminder is about creating self fulfilling prophesies - people do watch various MA's, Fib numbers and similar and because they do and gamble on prices to bounce at certain points ... they often do.

Having said that - this realisation does not change the fact that these things do happen, i.e. TA is useful.

It is just - it is not describing some laws of nature, but just human psychology, which though - in a way - is obviously as well a part of nature.

[winner69]

Seems that Oceania has gone downhill in more ways than one since Earl left and Brent took over the reins

Maybe a bad move by Liz

[BlackPeter]

Seems that Oceania has gone downhill in more ways than one since Earl left and Brent took over the reins

Maybe a bad move by Liz

Must be a really bad omen this Brent taking over ... I guess since he started it was not just OCA dropping in value - RYM and ARV (and even SUM) did drop as well. And don't forget the property stocks, they all lost huge amounts of their listed value. Bad bad move to put him into office - winner says so, and he must be right - right?

But wait ... so many things happened in the last 18 months - and maybe it wasn't Brent at all causing everything from Putins war in the Ukraine, Chinas Zero Covid policy, high inflation world wide as well as dropping property prices.

Just a thought ... keep an open mind ;