OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Bjauck]

Bjauck - I have always thought that an underrated circumstance is the inheritance factor. If your community tends to larger family sizes, then not only is there less to go around while you are young but what comes down the generations, if anything, has to be more divisible when finally received. It's like the situation with the Protestants and the Catholics in Ireland when contraception was deemed sinful. So breaking the cycle of being less wealthy is difficult.

And the Indian and Asian communities tend to place even more value on education than Europeans in general, so lift themselves that way. But reasoning along these lines is basically taboo in this country, and solutions are lacking and blame is allocated to other causes.

Breaking the cycle of being less wealthy is so difficult in NZ, which taxes income and goods and services but not wealth or even capital gains from mucn of that wealth. The result is assets becoming ever more unaffordable for the asset-less income earners. The large family should be able to get ahead with their contribution to the much needed workforce. They should be able to earn big bucks as much needed carers in rest homes - however not in this NZ.

[Ferg]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/forumd...et-Discussions

[Maverick]

Thought I’d do one last post before the big day next Wednesday that might be interesting to some.
I’m picking this result will surprise the market. I know that’s a big call but here’s why.

The biggest profit driver far above all the usual incremental gains on DMFs and resales etc ( yes, care should rise this time too) is the new sale gains on specifically….apartments.
OCA won’t tell anyone the composition of empty NEW stock on hand, this includes the analysts. The only way to work it out is to go right back to the beginning and add / subtract new deliveries and sales since. Only a full database tracking the changes will give the new empty stock numbers. After listening many times to the latest FY21 webinar it was very clear even the anylists were caught out badly by the general total , non specific, empty new stock numbers. ( suggesting to me they don’t do the above process)

It has been well covered on this forum that OCA have now moved the focus on care suite construction ( in order to free up prime land) and are now well underway completing and selling the subsequent new apartments

Because It seems clear people arnt aware of actual empty apartment stock available at the beginning of this HY. Therefore the market won’t have worked out is that there plenty of apartments now (circa 160, that’s 50 % more than usual ) available to sell. Oca normally make around $10m per HY but this HY should see that rise another $5m , seemingly out of the blue.

This is the beginning of the very profitable and sustainable new growth phase that OCA is now in. This sets it apart from its competitors which have a more linear and consistent development model.
ARV in fact is at the opposite stage where it is having to now add caresuites to compliment its recent large village purchases. I expect ARV and OCA share prices will decouple at this point when their 2 quite different results come out shortly.

As previously stated, I’m still predicting a 4.5 c EPS. This will be the precursor to many good EPS rises henceforth and then a blinder next FY when The Helier and Windermere apartments start selling.

No need to cross fingers for next Wednesday, it’s all just physics and maths with known numbers which will culminate into a very pleasing result.

[justakiwi]

I can't wait. Thank you!

[Rawz]

Nice one Mav. Your post exudes confidence. Looking forward to the HY results

[850man]

Awesome post Mav. Fingers crossed it plays out as such on Wednesday

[percy]

I can't wait. Thank you!

Me too.......lol.
And as always thank you Maverick for your posts.

[Beau]

Thanks for putting in the time Maverick and sharing.

[ronaldson]

Daily on-market volume has been particularly heavy for an NZX listing for some time now as the share price has incrementally fallen over the last 12 months. 715m shares on issue and regularly over 1m trading per day. So who is buying and who is selling?

Around 80c seems to be the level underpinning the market and DB says that is close to a 5.5% yield, albeit unimputed, on a 4.4cps annual dividend. And if Maverick is anywhere near right the interim dividend should be more than last year's 2.1cps and therefore yield will increase if the share price is unchanged.

I wonder thou if apartment sales will really be as healthy as Maverick predicts. All the major retirement village operators are advertising stock furiously just now and with the property market undergoing shock treatment current sales/pricing may not be quite as robust as once expected. Am I correct that Ryman are the next cab off the rank this reporting season? If so, that will be useful guidance as to how it really is ''out there".

[Onemootpoint]

Good posts by Maverick and Ronaldson.

Interesting (said tongue in cheek) the share price moved from 79c to 82c since the post…..ST-ders buying??