OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[percy]

Intrinsic value changed a lot imo - economic conditions, the company’s direction & management, demand & supply dynamics and factors determining cost of capital (interest rates, company’s capital & debt structure and volatility) all changed.

The tsunami of aging retirees just keeps on getting bigger.
The issue may turn out to be on the supply side in the not to distant future.

[Balance]

The tsunami of aging retirees just keeps on getting bigger.
The issue may turn out to be on the supply side in the not to distant future.

They do and that’s certainly one compelling reason to have exposure to the sector.

The key issue is still house prices which affects RVs - the price retirees can get for their exiting properties to buy into RVs.

[Balance]

I had MetLife shares and thank goodness someone else had an intrinsic value for my shares at a much higher level at the time than my perception of value!!!! So they were most welcome to my shares at the price they offered in the takeover!

[Snow Leopard]

Ithaka

BY C. P. CAVAFY
TRANSLATED BY EDMUND KEELEY

As you set out for Ithaka
hope your road is a long one,
full of adventure, full of discovery.
Laistrygonians, Cyclops,
angry Poseidon—don’t be afraid of them:
you’ll never find things like that on your way
as long as you keep your thoughts raised high,
as long as a rare excitement
stirs your spirit and your body.
Laistrygonians, Cyclops,
wild Poseidon—you won’t encounter them
unless you bring them along inside your soul,
unless your soul sets them up in front of you.

Hope your road is a long one.
May there be many summer mornings when,
with what pleasure, what joy,
you enter harbors you’re seeing for the first time;
may you stop at Phoenician trading stations
to buy fine things,
mother of pearl and coral, amber and ebony,
sensual perfume of every kind—
as many sensual perfumes as you can;
and may you visit many Egyptian cities
to learn and go on learning from their scholars.

Keep Ithaka always in your mind.
Arriving there is what you’re destined for.
But don’t hurry the journey at all.
Better if it lasts for years,
so you’re old by the time you reach the island,
wealthy with all you’ve gained on the way,
not expecting Ithaka to make you rich.

Ithaka gave you the marvelous journey.
Without her you wouldn't have set out.
She has nothing left to give you now.

And if you find her poor, Ithaka won’t have fooled you.
Wise as you will have become, so full of experience,
you’ll have understood by then what these Ithakas mean.


https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poe...-56d22eef917ec

[percy]

They do and that’s certainly one compelling reason to have exposure to the sector.

The key issue is still house prices which affects RVs - the price retirees can get for their exiting properties to buy into RVs.

Most [all] retirement villages price their units well below the average local house values.So most retirees have money to spare once their house is sold.
The slow down means it takes longer to sell their house,as buyers have finance issues.
I think we must also remember it is a lifestyle decision ,rather than a financial one for most.

[SailorRob]

Intrinsic value changed a lot imo - economic conditions, the company’s direction & management, demand & supply dynamics and factors determining cost of capital (interest rates, company’s capital & debt structure and volatility) all changed.

I think we can both agree that intrinsic value has changed a small fraction of the market value from 43c to $1.60.

[thegreatestben]

Unsure if anyone has posted this yet - bottom of this article has 5 stocks to watch from ForBarr for 2023 and OCA is one of them.

"The analysts say in choosing their five stocks to watch in 2023 they have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas - (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan Steel [VSL], KMD Brands [KMD]) or with attractive valuations (Oceania Healthcare [OCA], SkyCity [SKC]) "where we think that the bad news is firmly in the price"."We have done our best to avoid companies that we see as particularly exposed to labour shortages, or have debt concerns."

[ronaldson]

Like everyone else subscribing to the DRIP I had shares allotted today at $0.8041c - disappointing that market closed at $0.79c after ranging up to $0.85c earlier in the period after the ex-date. That 6c range seems excessive given the sub $1 pricing, so sentiment has fluctuated even thou turnover remains heavy.

I see the main driver lower now being constant media repetition regarding falling house prices but agree with Percy's comments above. The tsunami of aging retirees has indeed arrived as the boomers have begun to reach 75+ but it is wise to remember peak demand for care suites is maybe still at least five more years away.

And I know there is no alternative presently to the gross dividend being abated by 33c RWT (some holders will be able to retrieve some of that in due course) but still have not got over the mean spiritedness of the Board in reducing the previous interim dividend of 2.1cps to the current 1.9cps given the generally acceptable half year result and the prevailing rate of inflation. Yield is king at the moment in underpinning share pricing so why apply further pressure?

[SailorRob]

but still have not got over the mean spiritedness of the Board in reducing the previous interim dividend of 2.1cps to the current 1.9cps given the generally acceptable half year result and the prevailing rate of inflation. Yield is king at the moment in underpinning share pricing so why apply further pressure?

Are we really saying that the board should be allocating capital to support the share price?

I mean they are asking for equity on one hand and paying it out of the other. Crazy.

[Baa_Baa]

Are we really saying that the board should be allocating capital to support the share price?

I mean they are asking for equity on one hand and paying it out of the other. Crazy.

I've avoided this traders versus investors discussion so far, but your question is ridiculous as you already know the answer. OCA Board has no effect on the market SP, unless they're doing a buy-back. Which they're not. Even if they were, there should not be directly affecting the market SP. And they're not.

The circular arguments of traders vs investors is really quite boring and tedious imo, traders like momentum in the SP and position accordingly to buy and sell when it suits them, whereas investors like the occasionally low SP to get some more. Now's the time for investors, value investors. Traders take their chances, will the SP go up from here, or not. It's of no concern to me. Good luck to them.

Everything else is noise, the debate will never convert a trader to an investor, or visa versa. Some get over it and move on. We trade if we want to, we invest if want to, neither can be be compared, they're poles apart strategies.