OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Poolboy]

Oh I wish I knew. I'd been bragging that I bought most of my OCA at 76 cents, I'm not so smug now LOL

Lets just hope this year is a happier place.

[BlackPeter]

Oh I wish I knew. I'd been bragging that I bought most of my OCA at 76 cents, I'm not so smug now LOL

Lets just hope this year is a happier place.

Buying under value and selling above value requires skill.

Buying at the absolute bottom as well as selling at the absolute top however is just good luck (or, if its just a story ... fantasy ;

Pretty sure that in the long run you will be happy with your 76 cents - and hey, you made already 4%!.

[nztx]

Wonder what OCA's next announcement of their FY March 2023 Result will look like ?

[BlackPeter]

Wonder what OCA's next announcement of their FY March 2023 Result will look like ?

Don't we all?

Analyst consensus is 274 m revenue and 6 cents EPS. But obviously - analysts are not more often right in predicting the future than anybody else. Lets hope somebody did wake the market up ...

However - I think 2024 will be more interesting than 2023. By FY2024 REITS should all be on the way back and market up from their hibernation ...

[winner69]

Don't we all?

Analyst consensus is 274 m revenue and 6 cents EPS. But obviously - analysts are not more often right in predicting the future than anybody else. Lets hope somebody did wake the market up ...

However - I think 2024 will be more interesting than 2023. By FY2024 REITS should all be on the way back and market up from their hibernation ...

That can’t be right BP

Last years revenue was $308m and eps was 8.7 cents

Só revenue going backwards and EPS collapsing to 6 cents

What’s happened to the ‘positioned for growth’

No wonder share price is so low

[nztx]

Don't we all?

Analyst consensus is 274 m revenue and 6 cents EPS. But obviously - analysts are not more often right in predicting the future than anybody else. Lets hope somebody did wake the market up ...

However - I think 2024 will be more interesting than 2023. By FY2024 REITS should all be on the way back and market up from their hibernation ...

That's done it .. I feel obliged to acquire a few solitary lamp posts to track this forecast trending with interest

[BlackPeter]

That can’t be right BP

Last years revenue was $308m and eps was 8.7 cents

Só revenue going backwards and EPS collapsing to 6 cents

What’s happened to the ‘positioned for growth’

No wonder share price is so low

Last years revenue was 231 m, but EPS was 16 cents (including revaluations). Well, that's what my spreadsheet says, I didn't double check. Anyway - I guess this is what happens if real estate markets turn around. Revaluation gains disappear.

Good thing is - while property markets could have risen forever, they can't possibly drop forever ;

They say markets are forward looking, but maybe - these markets are a bit short sighted, aren't they?

[nztx]

Last years revenue was 231 m, but EPS was 16 cents (including revaluations). Well, that's what my spreadsheet says, I didn't double check. Anyway - I guess this is what happens if real estate markets turn around. Revaluation gains disappear.

Good thing is - while property markets could have risen forever, they can't possibly drop forever ;

They say markets are forward looking, but maybe - these markets are a bit short sighted, aren't they?

This is the way I look at the OCA 2022 P&L Account

Total Income $308 m 2021 $260 m
Deduct:
Gain on purchase of Biz Assets (10.0)
Change Fair value Investment Property (64.0 m) 2021 (82 m)

Net Real Revenue $234m - 2021 $178m

Expenses:

Total expenses $252m - 2021 $184.0 m

Deduct
Impairments (5.2 m) 2021 + 3.0m

Adjusted Expenses 246.8 2021 - 187.0 m

Adjusted Real Surplus (12.8 m) LOSS - 2021 (9.0 m) LOSS


This removes all the creative internal revaluation write ups and fancy financial wizardry
out of the equation.

Lets face it - the internal write ups & revaluations could evaporate or reverse, if not realised first,
or do even worse or may be not..


Reported Tax Benefit +4.8 m - 2021 +10.4 m

No Tax paid in either years

Recognition and Measurement

No income tax was paid or payable during the year (31 March 2021: nil).

No income tax was paid or payable during the period (2020: nil).

Tax Losses:

After taking into consideration losses generated in the period to 31 March 2022, the Group now has an estimated $130.3m (31 March 2021: $86.9m) of available tax losses as at 31 March 2022.

After taking into consideration losses generated in the period to 31 March 2021, the Group now has an estimated $86.9m (2020: $53.4m) of available tax losses as at 31 March 2021.

That is $43.4 million of additional TAX LOSSES generated on estimated figures disclosed in 2022 Year and $33.5 million of TAX LOSSES generated in 2021 Year !


Why is OCA paying dividends, when these are costing holders 33% DWT, as no imputation credits attached ?

Are they borrowing to pay dividends ? - because eliminating the fancy financial fair value and revaluation footwork results in red ink or adjusted REAL LOSSES for both years - 2022 and 2021


No disclosure of Imputation credit balance that I can see - so should we assume that none exist ?


The SP Level seems to factor in that should an unfavourable wind blow, there may not be many smiling
faces on an equation that relies on revaluation / fair value gains to even make it over the line out of the red


How many other Sectors rely on fair valuing upwards the valuation of the unsold contents
of the cookie jar bought in to sell over the next week ahead of the customers actually
landing (if they will indeed) to empty the Cookie Jar as hoped ?

[BlackPeter]

This is the way I look at the OCA 2022 P&L Account

Total Income $308 m 2021 $260 m
Deduct:
Gain on purchase of Biz Assets (10.0)
Change Fair value Investment Property (64.0 m) 2021 (82 m)

Net Real Revenue $234m - 2021 $178m

Expenses:

Total expenses $252m - 2021 $184.0 m

Deduct
Impairments (5.2 m) 2021 + 3.0m

Adjusted Expenses 246.8 2021 - 187.0 m

Adjusted Real Surplus (12.8 m) LOSS - 2021 (9.0 m) LOSS


This removes all the creative internal revaluation write ups and fancy financial wizardry
out of the equation.

Lets face it - the internal write ups & revaluations could evaporate or reverse, if not realised first,
or do even worse or may be not..


Reported Tax Benefit +4.8 m - 2021 +10.4 m

No Tax paid in either years






Tax Losses:







That is $43.4 million of additional TAX LOSSES generated on estimated figures disclosed in 2022 Year and $33.5 million of TAX LOSSES generated in 2021 Year !


Why is OCA paying dividends, when these are costing holders 33% DWT, as no imputation credits attached ?

Are they borrowing to pay dividends ? - because eliminating the fancy financial fair value and revaluation footwork results in red ink or adjusted REAL LOSSES for both years - 2022 and 2021


No disclosure of Imputation credit balance that I can see - so should we assume that none exist ?


The SP Level seems to factor in that should an unfavourable wind blow, there may not be many smiling
faces on an equation that relies on revaluation / fair value gains to even make it over the line out of the red


How many other Sectors rely on fair valuing upwards the valuation of the unsold contents
of the cookie jar bought in to sell over the next week ahead of the customers actually
landing (if they will indeed) to empty the Cookie Jar as hoped ?

Looks like you original question was completely rhetorical ... you just needed an excuse to publish your damning analysis ;

Anyway - a great example for creative accounting - and it demonstrates that pessimists can be as creative in painting different shades of black, than optimists can be in painting different shades of white. Just remove the major income stream from the calculation and everything looks really bad. Easy.

Reality is normally somewhere in the middle - shades of grey.

I think what you missed is that ANY Retirement village operating by selling licences to occupy and charging deferred management fees is in the main a REIT. So, yes, if you assume (as you seem to do) that the real estate industry is doomed, real estate is crashing into the ground and people will throw away any property in a handful of years to avoid being charged a disposal fee, than your analysis makes lots of sense.

It is just - I don't share your train of thought, but if you really believe this nonsense you are writing, than why don't you just give me all your property? I am happy to take it off you without charging you disposal fees. Remember - it will be worth nothing in some years anyway ;

[Poolboy]

Thanks for the accounting. But it has no bearing on the share market price,