OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Lawstudent05]

Whats the EBIT or key KPIs target they are looking to hit from FY Results to boost SP?

[trader_jackson]

Underlying profit of 50.6m (up from 34.0 in FY17)
Underlying EPS of 8.3c
2nd half DPS of 2.5c

Underlying EBITDA of 61.4 (up from 37.0 in FY17)

That is basically why forsyth reckon anyway... and they only get a 12 month target price of $1.07 so really OCA needs to beat those numbers to trade at these elevated levels.
Maybe Oceania is no longer the cheap stock it use to be...

[Food4Thought]

I think OCA is flying under the radar for many potential investors. Great to be in it early. It sure is a long term game and the short term is getting exciting with anticipation. A few positive news articles in the near future / marketing campaign after good results may also help out the SP. Then there is the winter seasonal depression on the NZX... stuck inside, over analyzing things that may happen or may not... can't wait to see OCA sp in a few summers time.

[Beagle]

Looks like the market is saying they will only "meet" forecast guidance of 8.43 cps underlying profit. If they make that guidance that puts them on a trailing PE of 13.1.
Maybe that's where its at until they can demonstrate more growth and get some more runs on the board ?

[Nasi Goreng]

PE of 13.1 and NTA of $0.80. Not many like that around...

[Beagle]

I think adjusted NTA is closer to $1 but we'll see later this week. I agree those are pretty sensible metrics and make for a good value play in this fast growing sector.

[trader_jackson]

I think adjusted NTA is closer to $1 but we'll see later this week. I agree those are pretty sensible metrics and make for a good value play in this fast growing sector.

Hard to say, but there is another listed operator (you know the one - its the dog) which has provided consistent underlying EPS growth since listing in December 2014, and is trading at a much cheaper NTA (1.1x vs OCA at 1.3x) and a similar underlying PE... that same company had the second highest of its care facilities at the maximum four year DHB accreditation in the sector (second only to RYM - aka in front of OCA) and average portfolio occupancy was 96% (the wider sector average, and OCA's, is 88%)... and then you look at that comapny's share price and see it is about the same price as it was last year (despite being valued cheaper on almost all ratios, having a better track record, no share price overhang, better accreditation, better operational efficiency and higher occupancy...)

I am now worried my OCA investment isn't going anywhere over the next 12 months... bit like my other investment in that dog over the previous 12 months... ah well, like that one, worst case I'll just have to be happy with the great dividend yield.

[Beagle]

Hard to say, but there is another listed operator (you know the one - its the dog) which has provided consistent underlying EPS growth since listing in December 2014, and is trading at a much cheaper NTA (1.1x vs OCA at 1.3x) and a similar underlying PE... that same company had the second highest of its care facilities at the maximum four year DHB accreditation in the sector (second only to RYM - aka in front of OCA) and average portfolio occupancy was 96% (the wider sector average, and OCA's, is 88%)... and then you look at that comapny's share price and see it is about the same price as it was last year (despite being valued cheaper on almost all ratios, having a better track record, no share price overhang, better accreditation, better operational efficiency and higher occupancy...)

I am now worried my OCA investment isn't going anywhere over the next 12 months... bit like my other investment in that dog over the previous 12 months... ah well, like that one, worst case I'll just have to be happy with the great dividend yield.

You make a pretty sound case. For what its worth this hound has refrained from referring to Arvida as a dog for quite SUM time now. I think you'll find that OCA's care occupancy is currently being affected by units held over for redevelopment as care suites. I think both these more care intensive operations are more susceptible to cost pressure through caregiver wage relativity increases over the next few years than SUM others but as you say the consolation with their model's is the dividend yield. Looking forward to seeing some more detail on how OCA's getting on later this week.

Overhang is the elephant in the room , couldn't agree more on that point.

[trader_jackson]

You make a pretty sound case. For what its worth this hound has refrained from referring to Arvida as a dog for quite SUM time now. I think you'll find that OCA's care occupancy is currently being affected by units held over for redevelopment as care suites. I think both these more care intensive operations are more susceptible to cost pressure through caregiver wage relativity increases over the next few years than SUM others but as you say the consolation with their model's is the dividend yield. Looking forward to seeing some more detail on how OCA's getting on later this week.

Overhang is the elephant in the room , couldn't agree more on that point.

I too am looking forward to seeing how OCA is going - particularly on the outlook as this seems a bit unclear (bit like how ARV started I suppose). We pretty much know FY18 results are going to be at least what was in the PDS... we know less of what is going to happen in the future... For example, forsyth even reckon EPS is going to go down for OCA in FY19.
Some comment on Macquarie's intentions would also be interesting to hear, ideally sooner rather than later.

I remember on the 28th of april 2016 prior to market open when ARV released a note mentioning that less than 1% of the shares on issue were to be sold in an orderly manner by Forsyth after the escrow expired in late the following month..., the shares then promptly went from $1.06 to to $1.20 and in fact never got close to $1.06 again... coincidence? I think not.

[Beagle]

What the company says about its FY19 outlook, if anything, and what Macquarie have to say is something that will be of intense market interest. I'm not fussed with Forbar's FY19 eps guess.