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16-04-2017, 09:40 PM
#141
Originally Posted by tim23
I'm guessing demand was high at a certain price so listing price may not be spectacular given pricing at lower end of range.
Look how tegel performed on its first day... was rock bottom of the $1.55 range... $1.80 on the first day or something?
This time I don't think Oceania will drop like Tegel has afterwards, fundamentals are much, much better for starters... but who knows.
I am also considering what price to put an offer in on the first day... May 5 is it?
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16-04-2017, 11:12 PM
#142
Originally Posted by trader_jackson
Look how tegel performed on its first day... was rock bottom of the $1.55 range... $1.80 on the first day or something?
This time I don't think Oceania will drop like Tegel has afterwards, fundamentals are much, much better for starters... but who knows.
I am also considering what price to put an offer in on the first day... May 5 is it?
Yep May 5...so a couple of weeks more to ponder this one....
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17-04-2017, 05:30 PM
#143
Sell in May go away might be good time to buy?!
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23-04-2017, 08:16 PM
#144
Due the emphasis in care beds, I think Arvida is the correct retirement village operator to compare against. Now we know the final price, we can do a direct comparison. I've performed it for FY18 as it will include a full year of Arvida's recent acquisitions.
|
OCA |
ARV |
Discount |
PE |
9.4 |
16.1 |
71.38% |
EV/EBITDA |
9.9 |
17.8 |
80.64% |
EV/EBIT |
11.5 |
21.5 |
87.40% |
DEBT/EBITDA |
2.1 |
2.4 |
12.23% |
price/NTA |
0.94 |
1.27 |
35.11% |
Unfortunately, there is not yet much visibility on development profit from FY19 onwards, so we don't really know if OCA's FY18 result will be abnormally high. With that in mind, perhaps the safer comparison is the 35% discount with price/NTA.
No advice here. Just banter. DYOR
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23-04-2017, 08:37 PM
#145
Originally Posted by noodles
Due the emphasis in care beds, I think Arvida is the correct retirement village operator to compare against. Now we know the final price, we can do a direct comparison. I've performed it for FY18 as it will include a full year of Arvida's recent acquisitions.
|
OCA |
ARV |
Discount |
PE |
9.4 |
16.1 |
71.38% |
EV/EBITDA |
9.9 |
17.8 |
80.64% |
EV/EBIT |
11.5 |
21.5 |
87.40% |
DEBT/EBITDA |
2.1 |
2.4 |
12.23% |
price/NTA |
0.94 |
1.27 |
35.11% |
Unfortunately, there is not yet much visibility on development profit from FY19 onwards, so we don't really know if OCA's FY18 result will be abnormally high. With that in mind, perhaps the safer comparison is the 35% discount with price/NTA.
Looks like the bargain of the century, even if one has to pay a 'premium' after listing
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23-04-2017, 09:05 PM
#146
Hi Noodles,
I presume you are assuming that OCA achieve their projected FY18 growth of what are they saying, 40% ?
Looking at their historical financials which hardly inspire, I'd take their projected growth for FY18 with the same pinch of salt as Tegal's.
Anyone can project anything they like, the key question is what credibility does one give to their projections especially in light of the recent dramatic change in caregivers pay rates ?
That said ARV is substantially overpriced relative to SUM in my opinion who have a vastly superior track record of growth.
I think this float gives the appearance of a bargain but only if you accept their FY18 forecast at face value and compare it to what appears to be an overpriced comparative company, yes still probably the best comparative but what this tells me more than anything else is ARV is a SELL.
In my opinion it is best to tread extremely conservatively with new IPO's when there is no track record of credibility upon which the directors can hang their forecasting hat.
Think about this, if they hadn't of projected 40% growth for FY18 they may not have even got the float done !
Remember these guys have been rattling cages on both sides of the Tasman trying to float this thing for years so they are HUGELY motivated to project an extremely positive forecast for FY18, just like Tegal's promotors were with their IPO.
Still...one imagines it will appeal to mum and dad investors, its less than $1 so it must be good value
Last edited by Beagle; 23-04-2017 at 09:15 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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24-04-2017, 10:52 AM
#147
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28-04-2017, 12:38 PM
#148
Will be very interesting to see where this lists after the recent govt ann, according to brokers there was good demand, but will this result in increased SP post start of trading. I'm in with a small holding.
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28-04-2017, 01:40 PM
#149
Originally Posted by noodles
Due the emphasis in care beds, I think Arvida is the correct retirement village operator to compare against. Now we know the final price, we can do a direct comparison. I've performed it for FY18 as it will include a full year of Arvida's recent acquisitions.
|
OCA |
ARV |
Discount |
PE |
9.4 |
16.1 |
71.38% |
EV/EBITDA |
9.9 |
17.8 |
80.64% |
EV/EBIT |
11.5 |
21.5 |
87.40% |
DEBT/EBITDA |
2.1 |
2.4 |
12.23% |
price/NTA |
0.94 |
1.27 |
35.11% |
Unfortunately, there is not yet much visibility on development profit from FY19 onwards, so we don't really know if OCA's FY18 result will be abnormally high. With that in mind, perhaps the safer comparison is the 35% discount with price/NTA.
Thanks for sharing that noodles, looks very favourable to me and going on their track record 40% growth for 2018 looks conservative and we know how few rated ARV and how well it has performed since listing. OCA two times over subscribed is what I've heard; so good luck to all who took up some.
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04-05-2017, 06:56 PM
#150
Getting ready to ramp it up tomorrow morning...
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