OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Baa_Baa]

Hope yet for a get out of jail card

In the media-
Merger and acquisition activity in Australia sparked the retirement village sector here. US investment firm Bain Capital has made a A$775m (NZ$829m) takeover offer for aged-care provider Estia Health at $3 a share, a 28% premium to its latest price of A$2.66.

A buck a share for OCA might be welcome

It's not often you make a dick of yourself, but this is scraping the bottom. You must realise that apart from bull****, the 'in crowd' of persistent detractors have moved on elsewhere, and good riddance to them, as they're so poorly informed about the health of OCA, dwelling on myths that are just simply not true.

You reckon the board and management who hold millions of shares would sell for a $1.00? Get real mate, you're losing the plot. By all means post a take over elsewhere, but to extrapolate to OCA and worse, suggest a ridiculous price ... just stop it, it's not doing anything to advance the discussion, or your reputation.

You wanted a reaction, you got it! Post the same drivel on the other RV threads as well, with your acquisition price for them, then I'll know you're not just bashing OCA for some perverse reason or effect.

[SailorRob]

Hope yet for a get out of jail card

In the media-
Merger and acquisition activity in Australia sparked the retirement village sector here. US investment firm Bain Capital has made a A$775m (NZ$829m) takeover offer for aged-care provider Estia Health at $3 a share, a 28% premium to its latest price of A$2.66.

A buck a share for OCA might be welcome

At least state your reasons for believing a dollar a share would be an attractive price to sell at.

If this is jail then I'd better start committing some serious crimes.

Even Bull can come up with some quasi credible bearish reasoning from the perspective of first order thinking.

[Muse]

W69 habitually picks whatever statistic looks worst and posts it as he loves to stir - it's his special thing.

As for informing his hypothetical 'what if this had been OCA' - extrapolating the takeover premium into an OCA shareprice - he could have looked at the implied price to book and what that price per share outcome would have been.

* Bain reported offer of ~$3/shr
* Estia consensus BVPS at 30 june 2023 of $2.0
* implied price to book of 1.5x
* Consensus BVPS for OCA 1.34
* You can do the math (hint, its twice what w69 threw out).

Disc: i'm not even a loyal OCA holder - have a most deminimus shareholding - and don't what the right answer is and dont really care either way - but found his analysis stunted. There will be a variety of other implied valuation metrics coming from Estia's takeover and it may not even be a good comp given its in a different country with a different set of circumstances.

[winner69]

W69 habitually picks whatever statistic looks worst and posts it as he loves to stir - it's his special thing.

As for informing his hypothetical 'what if this had been OCA' - extrapolating the takeover premium into an OCA shareprice - he could have looked at the implied price to book and what that price per share outcome would have been.

* Bain reported offer of ~$3/shr
* Estia consensus BVPS at 30 june 2023 of $2.0
* implied price to book of 1.5x
* Consensus price to book for OCA 1.34
* You can do the math (hint, its twice what w69 threw out).

Disc: i'm not even a loyal OCA holder - have a most deminimus shareholding - and don't what the right answer is and dont really care either way - but found his analysis stunted. There will be a variety of other implied valuation metrics coming from Estia's takeover and it may not even be a good comp given its in a different country with a different set of circumstances.

Interesting that in Oz an outfit like Estia traded at 1 times book value before rumours and takeover offer when (similar?) outfits in NZ trade at significant discounts

[X-men]

Happy to let it this dog go at 80c....lol

[Greekwatchdog]

Happy to let it this dog go at 80c....lol

You be the dog,

[SailorRob]

Happy to let it this dog go at 80c....lol

Is this just because the share price has fallen well below what you paid recently and now you're realising that this is a big boys game and you're out of your depth? You have no idea what you're doing and pray for the day that you can just break even and get out?

Is Oceania Healthcare the 'dog' or is it your lack of understanding of the capital markets that is in fact the mutt?

Better luck next time eh.

[X-men]

The market spoken....72c now...

[SailorRob]

The market spoken....72c now...

So when the market 'spoke' at $1.60 was it right or wrong?

[X-men]

Retail buyers like u guys...too dumb got suck in above $1....🤣🤣🤣