OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[cymonger]

Great result. Sometimes the art is in presenting old information as if it is new. Perception goes a long way. I think this is one we will be really glad to have gotten in so early on in a few years.

[winner69]

Great result. Sometimes the art is in in presenting old information as if it is new. Perception goes a long way. I think this is one we will be really glad to have gotten in so early on in a few years.

Sometimes the art is in in presenting old information as if it is new. Perception goes a long way.

So true cymonger

Today’s presentation is stunningly good ....hope it’s oerceived that way by the likes of Forbar eh

[warren]

[QUOTE=Baa_Baa;722391]Don't forget that the government doesn't pay for everyones care, accomodation etc at these facilities.

Hello Baa. Thanks you for your input. Well my research says the government is rather generous in its payment for care. It pays approx $1140 for care per week and $1489 per week for hospital care (these are very unwell/elderly folks, terminal, and there is a tidal wave coming, me included). And lets not even mention trusts!!!!!!!!!!! or should I say rorts??
So here are some stats from the Department. Also a ring to any of the good care resorts will tell you approx 90% of the care income comes directly from the government---on time and without fail---Facts I could only dream about when I was in business. I accept low margins in this area of care but in hard times it will do me(investor) given brilliant, well dressed , budget conscious and honest leadership.

Asset thresholds

If you’re 65 years or over, the value of your assets must be equal to or below the threshold for your circumstances.
Single or have a partner in care
The total value of your combined assets must be $227,125 or less if you either:

• don’t have a partner
• have a partner who is also in long-term residential care.

Have a partner not in care
If you have a partner who is not in care, you can choose whether the total value of your combined assets is either:

• $124,379, not including the value of your house and car
• $227,125, including the value of your house and car.

Your house is only exempt from the financial means assessment when it is the principal place of residence of the partner who is not in care, or a dependent child.

[winner69]

Warren, oca today said 80% of care income is govt funded

[warren]

Warren, oca today said 80% of care income is govt funded

Payment Facts I could only dream about Winner, when I was in business !!!!!

[winner69]

Hopefully today and next week will be a very rewarding time

OCA hasn’t been much of investment of late

Now is for the time hype to turn into dollars and time to stuff this perceived overhang

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...282/283328.pdf

First Impressions:-
Solid result slightly beating underlying profit forecast. I get 8.54 cps underlying against IPO forecast of 8.43 cps...so highly credible and a solid effort but not stunning in my opinion.

Outlook:-
Increased build rate, note that the build rate for FY19 is more than double FY18. This augers very well for profit growth.
Note also the embedded value of each unit is around $170K vs $120K per IPO forecast. This also is highly encouraging for future profit growth.
Delivering developments on time and on budget is no mean feat, (its actually incredibly hard in the Auckland market especially).

I need to do a lot more work on my forecast for FY19 but at this stage its fair to say I think we can look forward to quite significant underlying profit growth in 2019 mostly driven by the dramatic uplift in build rate FY19 compared to FY18.

Opinion:-
Rome wasn't built in a day but I really like the way these guys are laying the foundations...

[winner69]

F19 underlying earnings should be about $85to $90m shouldn’t they ...if not more

[winner69]

Maybe the RYM:OCA share price ratio will get back to that 10:1 ratio again

That be good

[Beagle]

F19 underlying earnings should be about $85to $90m shouldn’t they ...if not more

The bean counting hound was slow out of the blocks this morning. Get my snout into this properly, shortly, and should have a forecast later today.
At very first glance I get about $75 -$80m based on development build uplift alone. Then there's resales at higher embedded value...I'll probably get to where you are but need another coffee and some more time to think about it first Heck even if they get to my first glance mid point estimate that's 12.6 cps underlying and put a PE of 13 on that and we're off to the races...

Update. Key assumptions in my FY19 forecast. Doubling of build rate gives doubling of development profit, gives $21m uplift, (assume margins the same).
Resale underlying profit to increase in line with embedded value, assume same number of resales) gives $3.5m uplift in underlying profit.
This gives circa $24.5m uplift and suggests 52.1m plus 24.5m = $76.6m.

Sticking with $75-80m underlying profit forecast at this stage, about 12.6 cps underlying and on a PE of 13 this suggests to me a price target of ~ $1.64 12 months out is not unrealisdtic. Stock is presently been held back in a major way by the Macquarie overhang in my opinion. Once we get clarity on that it could really pop, Need to look at balance sheet and funding costs next noting the very strong cash flow over the last year. Disc: Topped up some more on the open this morning at $1.15