OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[SailorRob]

A touch of technical analysis wouldnt hurt when investing in this. The weekly charts, 20 and 10 ema crossover should be respected.

What kind of track record of success have you had in the past Gunner looking at a chart in order to predict future prices?

If this method is of benefit then you should have been able to use it to produce superior returns to the general market.

There is only one person I know of who has done this and that's Bull, this is a direct quote from him;

'Saler I ave beet d makit i ave coz i sez so dat i hav so der yer fewl'

If a person posting on Sharetrader on a Saturday night has the ability to use past prices on a chart to predict future price moves, then I would imagine a computer would be able to recognise these trends even more precisely and tell us all exactly when to buy and sell? Or is this something that humans are better at?

[Baa_Baa]

A touch of technical analysis wouldnt hurt when investing in this. The weekly charts, 20 and 10 ema crossover should be respected.

Yes, the short term EMA on weekly are working, though there are a few periods since IPO that they were uncertain. Recently they're been very reliable.

The volatility in RV's SP these past few years has proven the EMA crossovers to be effective, but who would've expected any of the RV's SP to be so volatile? Even very conservative TA, the 50/200EMA crossover (daily SP chart) has worked since IPO. This chart doesn't even show the SP, it's just shows the crossovers, green is a buy, red is a sell.

It's not about predicting the future, trading the market is about responding to the 'now' with some assumptions about probability. It assumes one can absorb the trading fees, and potential to be taxed as a trader, and still be profitable, with something else better to do with their capital while they're waiting for the next buy signal, which the chart does not help with.

Disc: not trading OCA, but you can easily see that even the most conservative TA would have been effective and no trader would be holding or buying OCA at the current point in time. They'll be looking for the entry/re-entry, which is possibly why a few traders are so prominent on this thread recently.

[X-men]

I have to say 68c looks so tempting..... considering arvida made the latest update and bounced back from 92c

[RupertBear]

Yes, the short term EMA on weekly are working, though there are a few periods since IPO that they were uncertain. Recently they're been very reliable.

The volatility in RV's SP these past few years has proven the EMA crossovers to be effective, but who would've expected any of the RV's SP to be so volatile? Even very conservative TA, the 50/200EMA crossover (daily SP chart) has worked since IPO. This chart doesn't even show the SP, it's just shows the crossovers, green is a buy, red is a sell.

It's not about predicting the future, trading the market is about responding to the 'now' with some assumptions about probability. It assumes one can absorb the trading fees, and potential to be taxed as a trader, and still be profitable, with something else better to do with their capital while they're waiting for the next buy signal, which the chart does not help with.

Disc: not trading OCA, but you can easily see that even the most conservative TA would have been effective and no trader would be holding or buying OCA at the current point in time. They'll be looking for the entry/re-entry, which is possibly why a few traders are so prominent on this thread recently.

Great chart thanks Baa Baa, extremely helpful

[X-men]

Million dollar question, is 68c the button price? If SP touched the button then punters are coming back. Bull is the first one to buy truck load

[Gunner]

What kind of track record of success have you had in the past Gunner looking at a chart in order to predict future prices?

If this method is of benefit then you should have been able to use it to produce superior returns to the general market.

There is only one person I know of who has done this and that's Bull, this is a direct quote from him;

'Saler I ave beet d makit i ave coz i sez so dat i hav so der yer fewl'

If a person posting on Sharetrader on a Saturday night has the ability to use past prices on a chart to predict future price moves, then I would imagine a computer would be able to recognise these trends even more precisely and tell us all exactly when to buy and sell? Or is this something that humans are better at?

I'm sensing cynicism. It about avoiding drawdowns. The natural gravity of equities is up so when the drawdowns occur best be out. There are trends as you'll note the trend on this has been down for over 12 months.

[nztx]

The recent divergence affirms imo a CR on the way.

What do CR's do to the SP ?

A recent example in ARV's CR is interesting

[SailorRob]

Yes, the short term EMA on weekly are working, though there are a few periods since IPO that they were uncertain. Recently they're been very reliable.

The volatility in RV's SP these past few years has proven the EMA crossovers to be effective, but who would've expected any of the RV's SP to be so volatile? Even very conservative TA, the 50/200EMA crossover (daily SP chart) has worked since IPO. This chart doesn't even show the SP, it's just shows the crossovers, green is a buy, red is a sell.

It's not about predicting the future, trading the market is about responding to the 'now' with some assumptions about probability. It assumes one can absorb the trading fees, and potential to be taxed as a trader, and still be profitable, with something else better to do with their capital while they're waiting for the next buy signal, which the chart does not help with.

Disc: not trading OCA, but you can easily see that even the most conservative TA would have been effective and no trader would be holding or buying OCA at the current point in time. They'll be looking for the entry/re-entry, which is possibly why a few traders are so prominent on this thread recently.

I'm sensing cynicism. It about avoiding drawdowns. The natural gravity of equities is up so when the drawdowns occur best be out. There are trends as you'll note the trend on this has been down for over 12 months.

Ok fair enough.

Avoiding drawdowns sounds like a good idea to me.

Definitely best to be out when the drawdowns occur. So if we can (roughly) avoid drawdowns on OCA and (roughly) participate in the natural gravity of up and we can (roughly) apply this skill to other stocks if not the overall market, then by definition we can very easily produce market beating returns, if not destroying.

If this is not so, then why not?

Can we not use a computer model to go back through the last hundred years of history across all stocks and show the predictive ability of these 'death crosses'? Or is it just this one in retrospect that has worked?

If one can reliably avoid downside and participate in at least some of the upside, then this ability would soon lead capital to be pushed in the direction of said person and the returns generated would lead to a vast amount of wealth in a pretty short space of time.

What am I missing.

[Fortunecookie]

What kind of track record of success have you had in the past Gunner looking at a chart in order to predict future prices?

If this method is of benefit then you should have been able to use it to produce superior returns to the general market.

There is only one person I know of who has done this and that's Bull, this is a direct quote from him;

'Saler I ave beet d makit i ave coz i sez so dat i hav so der yer fewl'

If a person posting on Sharetrader on a Saturday night has the ability to use past prices on a chart to predict future price moves, then I would imagine a computer would be able to recognise these trends even more precisely and tell us all exactly when to buy and sell? Or is this something that humans are better at?

Bull sounds like he is Dutch. I have a image of goldmember from Austin powers....haha anyway.

You are right SR the objective is to achieve above average or near certain returns. Otherwise why not just leave it in a index fund or term deposit.

The market has many participants. You have some hedge funds that operate on large volume and in nano seconds. What's their edge, they buy alot of data and try to get in front of orders(but be within regulation of course). They apply NASA like mathematics.
Robinhood isnt free for a reason they have been known to use data from FB. I wouldn't be surprised they extract data from sites like seekingalpha and yahoo finance.

Of course you have TA. I have no knowledge in the space. But I see merit because humans do the same things overtime and it is about picking out the repetitive moves.

There's value investing. Some people say it is a lost cause. There is always the ever present argument of value investing Vs EMH. Why not just leave it in a index fund.

In the macro space you have guys like Ray Dalio. Alot of complex modelling and great understanding of global dynamics etc.

Then there other investors where it is difficult to define like Soros. He applies the concept of reflexivity whereby he sees that we are observers but also participants.

The areas will overlap. I only know one successful investor that operates across the board and that is Dr Michael Burry. He applies TA, known as a deep value investor and has a great handle on the macro credit stuff. Yes he is a medical doctor as well. He's a freak!.

I am not saying one approach is better than the other. But like you say SR, the objective should be to achieve above average returns and thats in whatever approach that is being applied.

[SailorRob]

Bull sounds like he is Dutch. I have a image of goldmember from Austin powers....haha anyway.

You are right SR the objective is to achieve above average or certain returns. Otherwise why not just leave it in a index fund or term deposit.

The market has many participants. You have some hedge funds that operate on large volume and in nano seconds. What's their edge, they buy alot of data and try to get in front of orders(but be within regulation of course). They apply NASA like mathematics.
Robinhood isnt free for a reason they have been known to use data from FB. I wouldn't be surprised they extract data from sites like seekingalpha and yahoo finance.

Of course you have TA. I have no knowledge in the space. But I see merit because humans do the same things overtime and it is about picking out the repetitive moves.

There's value investing. Some people say it is a loss cause. There is always the ever present argument of value investing Vs EMH. Why not just leave it in a index fund.

In the macro space you have guys like Ray Dalio. Some high level mathematics would be applied.

Then there other investors where it is difficult to define like Soros. He applies the concept of reflexivity whereby we are observers but also participants.

The areas will overlap. I only know one successful investor that operates across the board and that is Dr Michael Burry. He applies TA, known as a deep value investor and has a great handle on the macro credit stuff. Yes he is a medical doctor as well. He's a freak!.

I am not saying one approach is better than the other. But like you say SR, the objective should be to achieve above average returns and thats in whatever approach that is being applied.

Great post, yes I follow Mr Burry, his blog pre GFC is good reading.

But what have Burrys returns been since his great moment off fame (which came very close to blowing up in his face). Scion Capital is his firm.

Picking repetitive moves using TA - a computer would be analysing all the charts for us.

Yes there is no 'one way' but if anyone has a superior method then they should be able to outperform the wider market over periods of 20 plus years. Almost always those that achieve this use a 'value' approach and by this I don't mean buying low PE stocks or low PB etc. I just mean buying future cash flows at a discounted rate that is higher than the market rate.