OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bull....]

Bull sounds like he is Dutch. I have a image of goldmember from Austin powers....haha anyway.

You are right SR the objective is to achieve above average or near certain returns. Otherwise why not just leave it in a index fund or term deposit.

The market has many participants. You have some hedge funds that operate on large volume and in nano seconds. What's their edge, they buy alot of data and try to get in front of orders(but be within regulation of course). They apply NASA like mathematics.
Robinhood isnt free for a reason they have been known to use data from FB. I wouldn't be surprised they extract data from sites like seekingalpha and yahoo finance.

Of course you have TA. I have no knowledge in the space. But I see merit because humans do the same things overtime and it is about picking out the repetitive moves.

There's value investing. Some people say it is a lost cause. There is always the ever present argument of value investing Vs EMH. Why not just leave it in a index fund.

In the macro space you have guys like Ray Dalio. Alot of complex modelling and great understanding of global dynamics etc.

Then there other investors where it is difficult to define like Soros. He applies the concept of reflexivity whereby he sees that we are observers but also participants.

The areas will overlap. I only know one successful investor that operates across the board and that is Dr Michael Burry. He applies TA, known as a deep value investor and has a great handle on the macro credit stuff. Yes he is a medical doctor as well. He's a freak!.

I am not saying one approach is better than the other. But like you say SR, the objective should be to achieve above average returns and thats in whatever approach that is being applied.

the best comment ive seen to date recently
totally agree everyone just needs to find there niche
and for sailor who always seems to forget that Renaissance Technologies used mathematical models perhaps even some t/a to far outperform the market , even buffet in investment period

[SailorRob]

the best comment ive seen to date recently
totally agree everyone just needs to find there niche
and for sailor who always seems to forget that Renaissance Technologies used mathematical models perhaps even some t/a to far outperform the market , even buffet in investment period

*Buffett


I never forget and have acknowledged that in the past as has Mr Buffett. They are ONE example and as far as I'm aware, the only.

And they could only do it with small sums of capital, it was never saleable.

You seem to be forgetting yourself.

[bull....]

*Buffett


I never forget and have acknowledged that in the past as has Mr Buffett. They are ONE example and as far as I'm aware, the only.

And they could only do it with small sums of capital, it was never saleable.

You seem to be forgetting yourself.

yes i forgot too , i agreed he couldnt scale forever
I also agree with your comment about backtesting by computers would pick up any pattern , trend etc etc in regards to t/a and with so many computers available anyone could do that so i guess i would have to admit perhaps pure t/a may not be the road to riches therefore if you have a edge using t/a it must be in combination with some other method

[winner69]

Jimmy Buffett pretty good investor as well ……seems to have a good life

[SailorRob]

yes i forgot too , i agreed he couldnt scale forever
I also agree with your comment about backtesting by computers would pick up any pattern , trend etc etc in regards to t/a and with so many computers available anyone could do that so i guess i would have to admit perhaps pure t/a may not be the road to riches therefore if you have a edge using t/a it must be in combination with some other method

Yeah and not so much a matter of anyone could do it, but the big multibillion dollar firms would develop superior models and cut everyone elses lunch.

[bull....]

anyway back to oca be interesting if any of the oca supporters could explain to us what is oca competitive advantage ie moat ... as buffett said the key is not accessing how much an industry is going to affect society or how much it will grow but rather determining it competitive advantage

[SailorRob]

anyway back to oca be interesting if any of the oca supporters could explain to us what is oca competitive advantage ie moat ... as buffett said the key is not accessing how much an industry is going to affect society or how much it will grow but rather determining it competitive advantage

It doesn't have one. It's that simple.

Very few of the companies I own really do. They are much rarer than most people think and those that do are handicapped by a higher price.

Some could argue that it has small advantages over the others but they would be hard to measure and fleeting at best.

Anyone arguing the continuum of care or any other points of difference, well there is nothing stopping the others offering the same.

They have no pricing power.

[SailorRob]

Anyone else with capital can come along and replicate the business model, just like they did. Some weak advantage in locations and consents etc but not really.

If you can buy a buck for 25 cents you don't need a moat.

[Fortunecookie]

Great post, yes I follow Mr Burry, his blog pre GFC is good reading.

But what have Burrys returns been since his great moment off fame (which came very close to blowing up in his face). Scion Capital is his firm.

Picking repetitive moves using TA - a computer would be analysing all the charts for us.

Yes there is no 'one way' but if anyone has a superior method then they should be able to outperform the wider market over periods of 20 plus years. Almost always those that achieve this use a 'value' approach and by this I don't mean buying low PE stocks or low PB etc. I just mean buying future cash flows at a discounted rate that is higher than the market rate.

I have read his earlier stuff as well and follow his posts on twitter. It is difficult to say what his post GFC performance has been like. The only thing I can find is on Datarama. But only that is a best guess what his entry price is and it is only his US holdings. I have to say I am more interested in the rationale in his pick of stocks. On occasion I will try to assess the company he's picked.

I think he has been right in alot of cases but never exactly right on the timing. More recent examples are his Tesla and Cathy Woods shorts.

I do see merit in the principle in that as humans we display repetitive behaviour. In terms of the impact of computers on TA. l can't really say because I have no knowledge in this space. In saying this I read the book, the front office. Which is a great read about the world of hedge funds. I vaguely recall that the impact of TA now is very different to a decade or two ago. That is quite possibly due to the use of computers. I guess how quickly do those opportunities close up.

I can only speculate that hedge funds have yet to setup shop on the NZX. Based on observation there is certainly less volatility when comparing the movements of some individuals shares on NZX to the likes of US.

I couldn't agree with you more. My interest is aligned with value investing. I think it suits me in alot of ways. I think in some areas we have an edge over institutions i.e level of capital deployed, time horizon, investing mandates just to name a few. There's the relationship that institutions have with the clients. In a paradoxical way that can limit the returns that can be achieved. Fortunately we don't have to deal with that.

Personally I try to look at things where is considered unpopular. Potentially buy at a 25% to 30% discount depending on the company and the likelihood. You are right low P/E and PB shouldn't be the only reasons. Payback period is important too.

[bull....]

It doesn't have one. It's that simple.

Very few of the companies I own really do. They are much rarer than most people think and those that do are handicapped by a higher price.

Some could argue that it has small advantages over the others but they would be hard to measure and fleeting at best.

Anyone arguing the continuum of care or any other points of difference, well there is nothing stopping the others offering the same.

They have no pricing power.

exactly and thats why all RV stocks are tracking each other performance wise. so i would argue that it matters little in the long run which RV stock you invest in as none has an advantage over the other apart from short term stock price blips