OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

**SailorRob** · 24-04-2023, 09:56 AM

Originally Posted by bull....

you remind me off of a certain other poster that used to post on this forum lol ... cant remember the dog's name but was always so positive on this stock until

Until what? Things became dramatically more positive?

Or is a much lower price more risk?

**SailorRob** · 24-04-2023, 09:58 AM

Originally Posted by Balance

Going back a year, W69’s post about OCA funding its cashflow deficits and dividends with ever increasing debt and a capital raising imo is the most pertinent in terms of why market perception of OCA has been negative and what OCA needs to do next.

Let’s see what the company has to say about that in May.

The institutional market would most certainly support the cessation of dividends but many of the retail shareholders will react with shock and dismay.

So will OCA bite the bullet and do the right thing?

is 400 mill a lot of debt against 2.5 billion total assets?

In the context of it being locked in at 5000 year lows, I'd counter it's not nearly enough.

**Balance** · 24-04-2023, 09:58 AM

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

Good question. Maybe however the shock and dismay you talk about is already baked into todays price?

Paying taxes for a return of my capital always occurred to me as a dumb idea ... so, for me stopping unimputed dividends would increase the share value.

Retail investors have been the buyers vs instos who have been selling - I doubt that retail investors have been pricing in a dividend cut if it happens.

**SailorRob** · 24-04-2023, 10:10 AM

Originally Posted by Balance

Retail investors have been the buyers vs instos who have been selling - I doubt that retail investors have been pricing in a dividend cut if it happens.

Yes but he did say increase the share value. Not the share price.

I agree with him.

**BlackPeter** · 24-04-2023, 10:14 AM

Originally Posted by Balance

Retail investors have been the buyers vs instos who have been selling - I doubt that retail investors have been pricing in a dividend cut if it happens.

Generalisations are always wrong. I am a retail investor and an unimputed dividend does not even appear on the list of my decision criteria. EPS, Earnings CAGR and NTA/SP (as long as I believe them) however do.

**SailorRob** · 24-04-2023, 10:18 AM

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

Generalisations are always wrong. I am a retail investor and an unimputed dividend does not even appear on the list of my decision criteria. EPS, Earnings CAGR and NTA/SP (as long as I believe them) however do.

Seconded with the addition that the dividend will appear on my list as a negative as I'd rather the business compound the capital for me.

**SailorRob** · 24-04-2023, 10:24 AM

Look, another point everyone should consider is that even the biggest OCA bear would never think that it could take until 2040 for the share price to reach $2.

But if that's what happens you're going to have one hell of a result, CAGR of over 10% for 17 years is not to be sniffed at and will make you very wealthy if you can get some capital in now.

The only risk is bankruptcy or buy out and I haven't heard even the biggest bear talk about bankruptcy.

There will be those who paid $1.50 thinking how does this apply to them, well in exactly the same way...

Average house value say 800k, sell, invest at 10% (after tax), add 25k per year from saving, come out with well over 5 million.

Keep house, come out with house, less all accumulated expenses.