OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[SailorRob]

To the doubters out there, can you tell me what is wrong with an investment that costs .78c a unit that will be $1.10 per unit in twelve months time and multiples thereafter. Plus they pay you a divie along the way.

I'm not a doubter but I would be extremely cautious about predicting what prices will be in 12 Months time.

Every single person has been dramatically wrong doing this since the IPO, and in fact there's nobody in the world that can do it with any consistency with any company.

That's 8 billion people, millions of supercomputers and 50 thousand companies.

[SailorRob]

Thanks for your time ....I will wait for the long term to see the results ...Only time will tell how it goes ...

I'm very happy to help, I've posted about it before, people will get sick of me reposting it but I can find it if you like, but to get the general idea just Google 'insurance float'.

What you have said is not wrong, but even with insurance if every dollar gets paid out in claims and expenses in future, you still have that dollar now and can invest it for a period of time.

To understand this company it's critical to understand the liability structure of the funds.

[alokdhir]

I'm very happy to help, I've posted about it before, people will get sick of me reposting it but I can find it if you like, but to get the general idea just Google 'insurance float'.

What you have said is not wrong, but even with insurance if every dollar gets paid out in claims and expenses in future, you still have that dollar now and can invest it for a period of time.

To understand this company it's critical to understand the liability structure of the funds.

As per my understanding or what I think these DMF refers to and what future services are included ...like building maintenance , care provisions etc ...then I as a consumer will be more then happy to pay for them in advance for my rest life time ...it provides customer finality of expenses and covers future inflation and what not ....I maybe wrong in thinking what they refer to ...

[winner69]

Hey Rob ..you should look up Turners and see what they do with their insurance ….cool

[Meister]

To the doubters out there, can you tell me what is wrong with an investment that costs .78c a unit that will be $1.10 per unit in twelve months time and multiples thereafter. Plus they pay you a divie along the way.

This is what I am curious about. I actually appreciate Balance providing some balance to the thread, but even with some potential downsides to the company the discount to asset value is currently very significant. Why is OCA having such a premium discount compared to the other retirement village operators who are operating in the same environment, with the same risks around housing valuations?

[Muse]

Hey Rob ..you should look up Turners and see what they do with their insurance ….cool

Damn you winner lol

[BlackPeter]

This is what I am curious about. I actually appreciate Balance providing some balance to the thread, but even with some potential downsides to the company the discount to asset value is currently very significant. Why is OCA having such a premium discount compared to the other retirement village operators who are operating in the same environment, with the same risks around housing valuations?

Actually - you might find that Arvida features a similarly sized discount (to NTA) ... but yes for Ryman and Summerset the discount is smaller.

I suspect the difference is - hype.

Ryman was always the figurehead of the retirement industry and is as well the oldest and best known. They just demand some premium for name recognition.

Summerset used to be in the same class as OCA and ARV but managed to get out of the dungeon some years ago - and markets still love the perceived cruise experience for healthy and fit residents - never mind the residents who need care at some stage. Who knows, how long this honeymoon will last ...

OCA and Arvida are both still rather new ... and still more in the investment phase (rather than the harvest). Obviously - OCA's focus on care is not sexy either with investors, and many are just focussing on short term gains rather than the bigger picture of which services will be needed in future.

I guess future will show whether OCA is able to charge a premium for its care beds while supply is decreasing (economics) and demand increasing (demographics). As long as free market rules apply and OCA can pick whom they house I would not be too concerned.

[Lego_Man]

Actually - you might find that Arvida features a similarly sized discount (to NTA) ... but yes for Ryman and Summerset the discount is smaller.

I suspect the difference is - hype.

Ryman was always the figurehead of the retirement industry and is as well the oldest and best known. They just demand some premium for name recognition.

Summerset used to be in the same class as OCA and ARV but managed to get out of the dungeon some years ago - and markets still love the perceived cruise experience for healthy and fit residents - never mind the residents who need care at some stage. Who knows, how long this honeymoon will last ...

OCA and Arvida are both still rather new ... and still more in the investment phase (rather than the harvest). Obviously - OCA's focus on care is not sexy either with investors, and many are just focussing on short term gains rather than the bigger picture of which services will be needed in future.

I guess future will show whether OCA is able to charge a premium for its care beds while supply is decreasing (economics) and demand increasing (demographics). As long as free market rules apply and OCA can pick whom they house I would not be too concerned.

What you've just described is why i like a barbell retirement portfolio where i simply hold OCA and RYM.

[SailorRob]

Hey Rob ..you should look up Turners and see what they do with their insurance ….cool

Doubt I need to.

Almost nobody can do it.

Awful business for all but few.

For those it's pure gold.

Wouldn't touch an insurance company apart from Berkshire and Markel.

[t.rexjr]

Ever the teacher but not the student