OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[SailorRob]

Thanks Gunner for that insight from an industry perspective. Good stuff.

Good that Rob hasn’t challenged you to ‘prove’ it eh

Well it's hardly a 'insight', what he has highlighted is normal commercial practice. Even in Roman times this was so.

[Rawz]

'I see OCA reaching NTA IN 2024 and moving beyond that figure'.

You are predicting a 67% + rise within a period of 18 Months. What is your past success rate been of these types of calls? That is a huge move in a very specific time period.

Also with the mate in management, who sees the valuations turning in EARLY 2024. Why is he in management when there is an asset class that they can apply a lot of leverage too, with the ability to predict the turn like they are claiming, surely they would have made a lot of money doing this for themselves and not have to work for someone else in a management role? Does he hot have a vested interest?

I have had a lot of success buying at a discount to NTA over many years. Some assets are tricky such as stock of a manufacturer or specialized buildings as Freezing Works.

Good points, all NTA's are certainly not created equal, replacement costs are totally irrelevant for many, including much commercial property. But not so with OCA.


I'm also an OCA bull, but you've made some big and bold calls when OCA has left many very smart people in the dust from the IPO. I'd be pretty careful with predicting anything like you have within a very small time frame.

Shesh Sailor your posts were good for awhile but lately have turned to complete rubbish adding no value.

Waiken simply posts his outlook on a stock based on anecdotal evidence and what has worked well in the past. This is what you do in an online forum. If people didnt share their outlooks then what's the point?

Your reply was obvious and completely pointless.

Bring back the Sailor that would just highlight deep value on stocks................

[winner69]

Quote SailorRob - Good points, all NTA's are certainly not created equal, replacement costs are totally irrelevant for many, including much commercial property. But not so with OCA.

So Rob a question - OCA has NTA of $1.34 per share, what then is replacement costs (per share)

We all should know seeing such a number is not totally irrelevant and would give us a better idea of what OCA is really worth

[SailorRob]

Shesh Sailor your posts were good for awhile but lately have turned to complete rubbish adding no value.

Waiken simply posts his outlook on a stock based on anecdotal evidence and what has worked well in the past. This is what you do in an online forum. If people didnt share their outlooks then what's the point?

Your reply was obvious and completely pointless.

Bring back the Sailor that would just highlight deep value on stocks................

Sailor feels it's important to highlight to people who are more naïve that anyone calling for a 67% rise to NTA and beyond in that specific time frame is just being silly.

If they said they see the potential then that's fine.

You want deep value? Look at Stellantis.

[SailorRob]

Quote SailorRob - Good points, all NTA's are certainly not created equal, replacement costs are totally irrelevant for many, including much commercial property. But not so with OCA.

So Rob a question - OCA has NTA of $1.34 per share, what then is replacement costs (per share)

We all should know seeing such a number is not totally irrelevant and would give us a better idea of what OCA is really worth

Yes it's not totally irrelevant, but how relevant it is is unknown.

What matters is what those assets can produce in cash, and their business model will do so, how much remains to be seen.

What I said was the replacement cost is not totally irrelevant, but I have no idea what the replacement costs would be.

I suspect it wouldn't be hard to work out, but would be time consuming.

I would much rather spend my time thinking about how OCA NTA is totally rubbish as it counts their biggest asset as a liability.

What I do know is that to replace the billion dollars of float with equity would cost a billion dollars.

Understanding what OCA is worth isn't really related to it's assets replacement costs.

I once had a massive concrete statue built of a one legged black sheep, was like 20 meters tall. Meant to be a tourist attraction. Would cost way more to build today, but this has nothing at all to do with what it's worth.

[ronaldson]

I don't know the answer regarding replacement cost of existing stock. I did just look at the Annual Results Presentation (y/e 31 March 2023) and noted inventory included 1651 care beds (not suites) and that since balance date OCA has effectively exited a total of 103 such beds by concluding the lease arrangements covering the Everill Orr and Wesley facilities in Auckland so is now responsible for 1548 care beds, presumably with no reduction in NTA per share and minimal if any reduction in ongoing profitability.

Also 19 ILU's (OCA does not differentiate between Apartments and Villas in defining an ILU) and 107 care suites were classed as "Held for Sale " at balance date, and these seem to be on balance sheet at an aggregate value of $100m implying an average value of around $800k despite the predominance of care suites in that total number. That may reflect St Helier's sell down situation at that point as I assume that reflects stock on hand rather than actual existing facilities intended to be disposed on-market?

This company has a predominance of sites held with development potential/intent rather than mature facilities. So the pipeline is significant and probably a drag on both profits and NTA just now as these go through the design, consenting and construction phases, not helping the share price.

Interestingly I received a brochure for the Waterford Village in Hobsonville accompanying my NZ Herald this morning. It seems the Apartments come "fully furnished" (whatever that means) and are offered from $550k and $930k respectively for one or two bedrooms. Two bedroom Villas (with attached garage) are from $950k but no mention of furnishings. Fixed weekly fee for life. I like the location and am tempted to have a look.

[ronaldson]

And just like that I have a fill today for 30k OCA at $0.78c in my trading account.

On balance my view is that upside potential exceeds downside risk. I intend holding until at least the AGM presentation/commentary from Friday afternoon, 25 August.

[ValueNZ]

And just like that I have a fill today for 30k OCA at $0.78c in my trading account.

On balance my view is that upside potential exceeds downside risk. I intend holding until at least the AGM presentation/commentary from Friday afternoon, 25 August.

That's quite the short time-frame you have there... I hope you're not in desperate need of the cash anytime soon.

[justakiwi]

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[ronaldson]

Yes, trading account - profits taxable, losses deductible. And the combined buy and sell brokerage is less than $100 in aggregate.