OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[SailorRob]

dekker is better at analysis than those in this thread

And it is very important for us to be able to do what we do, that people believe this.

While no serious investor would ever read an analysts report or give them a second thought, it's important that most retail investors hang off their every word.

Otherwise the game would be much tougher, I have to buy 11 screens and learn the lines.

[ValueNZ]

dekker is better at analysis than those in this thread

OCA could have a positive FCF but then they would have to stop their expansion (CapEX). As a shareholder I want Oceania to continue growing it's ORA debt which means keeping their CapEX high.

[winner69]

As I have said the discount to true NTA isn't 50% its more like 75%, this float is such an asset that it would make Buffett blush.

Next time you are having a chat with Warren don’t mention this Oceania float …he might want to buy it on the cheap

[bull....]

OCA could have a positive FCF but then they would have to stop their expansion (CapEX). As a shareholder I want Oceania to continue growing it's ORA debt which means keeping their CapEX high.

all RV's are slowing expansion as all have stated
all RV's are conserving cashflow as all have stated

If this free float was the holy grail as why are they doing the above ?

[SailorRob]

Next time you are having a chat with Warren don’t mention this Oceania float …he might want to buy it on the cheap

I have raised it with people who know him personally, obviously far to small for most of them but Ryman is on the radar of some absolutely world class managers, or it was. As was Mainfreight.

You'd be surprised how accessible people are that have personal relationships with Warren.

But no question a younger or smaller Berkshire/Buffett would buy OCA outright, if they could at these prices.

No question.

[SailorRob]

all RV's are slowing expansion as all have stated
all RV's are conserving cashflow as all have stated

If this free float was the holy grail as why are they doing the above ?

It's more that their expansion is being slowed.

[bull....]

And it is very important for us to be able to do what we do, that people believe this.

While no serious investor would ever read an analysts report or give them a second thought, it's important that most retail investors hang off their every word.

Otherwise the game would be much tougher, I have to buy 11 screens and learn the lines.

you can be a brilliant analyst but being able to make money from this in the market is a different game

[SailorRob]

you can be a brilliant analyst but being able to make money from this in the market is a different game

Yes this is also true, but generally they are focused on macro and quarter by quarter crap and don't see the big picture.

Sales

Margins

Multiples

Capital allocation

[bull....]

It's more that their expansion is being slowed.

yes which i have stated before means lower profits.
Free float works best if you can keep growing the size of it forever ..... RV's cannot do this

[SailorRob]

yes which i have stated before means lower profits.
Free float works best if you can keep growing the size of it forever ..... RV's cannot do this

Cyclical yes,

OCA is in the very early stages of float growth, for our purposes they can grow it forever yes of course.

Even if they couldn't, having a balance sheet 50% funded for free and not growing is also acceptable.

With demographics, population growth, inflation and general prosperity this train cannot be derailed.