OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[allfromacell]

Can't believe she didn't purchase enough to get a nice round number, owning 1,999,403 v a clean 2M would drive me insane.

[nztx]

Can't believe she didn't purchase enough to get a nice round number, owning 1,999,403 v a clean 2M would drive me insane.

Probably forgot to gross up & add the brokerage

[SailorRob]

Liz’s average buy price over the years is still just over $1.03 ……but she knows it’ll be worth while when share price gets to 4 bucks ..or was it 10 bucks

Such a massive cry baby. If you don't like then sell and p1ss off.

[davflaws]

Such a massive cry baby. If you don't like then sell and p1ss off.

I really value your contribution and analysis, but I have noticed that lately some of your posts are verging on abusive.

It would be good if we could all keep our communications on specific shares polite and respectful. There is plenty of vitriol and abuse (more than I want) on the other forums on this site

[SailorRob]

I really value your contribution and analysis, but I have noticed that lately some of your posts are verging on abusive.

It would be good if we could all keep our communications on specific shares polite and respectful. There is plenty of vitriol and abuse (more than I want) on the other forums on this site

Fair point but gets old when winner just whinges that the share price isn't higher and replies with snarky comments to mavs supurb analysis.

He is obviously way underwater and doesn't understand the business or why it's currently undervalued so just posts snarky rubbish instead of challenging ideas or providing analysis.

But point taken I don't disagree.

[SailorRob]

Liz’s average buy price over the years is still just over $1.03 ……but she knows it’ll be worth while when share price gets to 4 bucks ..or was it 10 bucks

Instead of snarky comments, please provide detailed analysis on why you do not think the share price will be significantly higher in future and why you think Liz is wrong to have paid an average of $1.03.

Thanks in advance.

[bull....]

My exersize is at today's prices.

But yes , in reality expenses will rise but they will all be offset by a similar increase of income:

The rise in care will be met by rises in WhataOra and PAC fees.
The rise in village operations will be met by the rise in village fees.
Interest costs will disappear and replaced by positive investment income
Corporate costs will reduce as OCA stops development.
New build costs ( and margins) will have ceased.
Resale margins will increase as per the inflation of the day which automatically adjusts the DMF income accordingly.

The only new cost that will be incurred is taxation.

This is the second biggest beauty of RV investing , that it is essentially inflation proof.

I hope this covers your question.

hey Mav agree with some of your thought's not all though.

corp costs may come down while they stop building eg the recent hire might sack some people.
rise in care may not keep pace with inflation in the long run im picking
rise in fee's may be offset as joshua alluded to in changes to the act which im picking
building costs will continue to increase faster than property prices will at least in the fore-seeable future further putting development margins under pressure.

anyway i guess i differ from you and ferg and sr on the float being like bullet proof. as like insurance company floats you can lose if you make mistakes.

[winner69]

Instead of snarky comments, please provide detailed analysis on why you do not think the share price will be significantly higher in future and why you think Liz is wrong to have paid an average of $1.03.

Thanks in advance.

I did not say or imply Liz was wrong ….you said that not me

And you wrong in assuming I’m ‘way underwater’

[SailorRob]

I did not say or imply Liz was wrong ….you said that not me

And you wrong in assuming I’m ‘way underwater’

Also assuming the sun will rise tomorrow.

[Maverick]

hey Mav agree with some of your thought's not all though.

corp costs may come down while they stop building eg the recent hire might sack some people.
rise in care may not keep pace with inflation in the long run im picking
rise in fee's may be offset as joshua alluded to in changes to the act which im picking
building costs will continue to increase faster than property prices will at least in the fore-seeable future further putting development margins under pressure.

anyway i guess i differ from you and ferg and sr on the float being like bullet proof. as like insurance company floats you can lose if you make mistakes.

Cheers for the response Bull, I appreciate any pushback if it's considered like yours here.

My exercise was very simplistic, only to paint a very rough sketch of what should be at the end of the rainbow using current values/conditions. That's if they simply finish their pipeline and go fishing.
In reality , we will never know as OCA are surely just going to keep adding more stuff as opportunities arise. That's their job.

With RYM and ARV ( to a lesser extent) going through a cash squeeze and now the analysts focus is almost entirely on RVs cashflow and bank covenants. As a result , The whole industry kinda feels a bit terminal and doomed going by Q&A time at the meetings and any analysis write ups lately. Debt levels...neg cashflow...selling stuff ...years of cut dividends. It begs the question: is it actually viable in the long run and is it worth the trouble? Hence inspiring the theoretical exercise to end game.

There will be plenty of new and unknown shocks/ crises between now and 8 years away. All your points could all come true and then some. You and I can't know but this is just a best guess sketch to quantify the likely reward might be by using today's known parameters. That's all the tools we've got to use.

But from this , it is clear enough that there is a massive pot of gold in line that is worthy of navigating the drama of the last 5 years and who knows what risks to come.

SR talks of a CAGR of 8 years of 30% from here to 2032. That's as massive as it is realistic for someone getting in now.

But Liz`s, Greg t and me , our CAGR will be way less. Under this exercise I figure about 15% CAGR 2032 . That's at an earlier and higher entry point than today. So for us who got in too soon , the reward should in theory still be up 600%.

To my knowledge no one has ever sold any. While I cannot speak for them, the logic surely is that they too see reward ahead despite the variables and unknowns.

The point of me putting down the potential rewards specifically like this is to demonstrate there is just loads and loads of margin of safety for all of us , whenever we got on the bus, for any variables and dramas that pop up over the years.