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13-12-2023, 08:07 AM
#17801
Originally Posted by ronaldson
Remember, this is a business in transition.
Since FY23 it has ceased to operate 5 resthomes, and has 7 more for sale ( one was under contract by 30 Sept). Already it has lost 255 care beds in just six months with likely at least that many more on the block currently. So revenue will fall, along with staff costs and other operating overhead, and the underlying asset base will be adjusted (albeit the two leasehold facilities were the first to be exited, and one other facility was simply closed without the land and buildings being onsold at that juncture). This swing away from care beds to village units has been ongoing since listing but is definitely accelerating now that underlying circumstances are more permissive.
So if that pivot continues, as it surely will, then spreadsheet comparison isn't easy, further compounded by the acquisitions of operating facitities with development potential.
It will take time for this business to reach a more stable operating base and the fog to lift.
Thats a good question you have raised there that others maybe able to answer.
If the future cashflow of the DMF is so good which it should be why would they be selling off villages in a market that doesn't recognize that value?
Thoughts?
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13-12-2023, 08:41 AM
#17802
Jeez Ron …..I worry about you when you use words like transition, pivot and even stable
Did you leave out your thoughts about how they can keep entropy from happening?
Or is it really a matter of how conveniently they can reinvent holistic convergence?
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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13-12-2023, 09:24 AM
#17803
Once they are past the point of inflection this will rocket
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13-12-2023, 09:26 AM
#17804
Originally Posted by Daytr
Thats a good question you have raised there that others maybe able to answer.
If the future cashflow of the DMF is so good which it should be why would they be selling off villages in a market that doesn't recognize that value?
Thoughts?
the irr not good enough if you take this is relation to the cost of capital and its leading to uneven cashflows thats why. basically sh.t investments they have made. thats how insurance companies go bust they invest there float in sh.t investemnts or dont manage the risk correctly. thats why buffett is far surperior to all as his underwriters are the best of the best.
Last edited by bull....; 13-12-2023 at 09:28 AM.
one step ahead of the herd
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13-12-2023, 09:58 AM
#17805
Originally Posted by Daytr
Thats a good question you have raised there that others maybe able to answer.
If the future cashflow of the DMF is so good which it should be why would they be selling off villages in a market that doesn't recognize that value?
Thoughts?
Because rest home beds do not generate any DMF.
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13-12-2023, 11:16 AM
#17806
Originally Posted by ronaldson
Because rest home beds do not generate any DMF.
Sorry I thought I read above that they were selling entire villages, I.e units as well.
I understand re the care units.
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13-12-2023, 11:18 AM
#17807
Originally Posted by Rawz
Once they are past the point of inflection this will rocket
They said they point of inflection was a few years ago
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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13-12-2023, 11:20 AM
#17808
Originally Posted by winner69
They said they point of inflection was a few years ago
Then we had Covid. Go figure
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13-12-2023, 11:21 AM
#17809
Originally Posted by bull....
the irr not good enough if you take this is relation to the cost of capital and its leading to uneven cashflows thats why. basically sh.t investments they have made. thats how insurance companies go bust they invest there float in sh.t investemnts or dont manage the risk correctly. thats why buffett is far surperior to all as his underwriters are the best of the best.
I never knew underwriters invested float, cheers for this.
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13-12-2023, 11:56 AM
#17810
Originally Posted by SailorRob
I never knew underwriters invested float, cheers for this.
funny. without them there would be no float for buffettt to invest. anyway time for bed big fed day coming up
one step ahead of the herd
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