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  1. #18221
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    But I have said I do not believe in EMT.

    I do not believe that markets are perfectly priced ALL of the time.

    Can you really not get the distinction?
    Not really no. I don't think you realise how tiny and insignificant NZX is and how backwards the investors are...

    I think OCA is massively mispriced.

    Day Traders case is roughly my bear case, a doubling share price and from the double a 10% CAGR.

    Things would have to be grim for that to play out but a good bear case.

  2. #18222
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    Quote Originally Posted by SailorRob View Post
    Not really no. I don't think you realise how tiny and insignificant NZX is and how backwards the investors are...

    I think OCA is massively mispriced.

    Day Traders case is roughly my bear case, a doubling share price and from the double a 10% CAGR.

    Things would have to be grim for that to play out but a good bear case.

    Aye, and as I have said numerous times - I think you put a strong case for why OCA could be undervalued.

    I have just added another perspective on how things could be viewed, and rather than pause to truly consider any possible merit in what I say you chose to belligerent and attempt to gaslight me and others.

    I was honestly shocked and stunned at how fast you turned on me over such a small thing.

    You have made your case for OCA being a BUY and there are a lot of good points you raise. If your expectations for how the business will perform, float will increase etc prove out you will profit.

    Wonderful.

    But you might also not be right (or right about everything anyway) and could just be paying a very fair (market) price for the business.

    And there’s nothing wrong with that either, say true.

  3. #18223
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    Aye, and as I have said numerous times - I think you put a strong case for why OCA could be undervalued.

    I have just added another perspective on how things could be viewed, and rather than pause to truly consider any possible merit in what I say you chose to belligerent and attempt to gaslight me and others.

    I was honestly shocked and stunned at how fast you turned on me over such a small thing.

    You have made your case for OCA being a BUY and there are a lot of good points you raise. If your expectations for how the business will perform, float will increase etc prove out you will profit.

    Wonderful.

    But you might also not be right (or right about everything anyway) and could just be paying a very fair (market) price for the business.

    And there’s nothing wrong with that either, say true.
    Exactly... No downside, fair price isn't a terrible outcome.

    I'd prefer it much cheaper, only have a 5 or 6% position so I can't be that keen. But at lower prices I'd go much bigger.

  4. #18224
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    Pretend you're a real estate agent selling the same house over and over and over and over again. Each time you get a 30% commission (which the buyer pays in this scenario).

    Now assume that at the start of this chain you stumped up the original $1m to get the house built and at the end of this chain you still own it.

  5. #18225
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    Quote Originally Posted by iamaskier View Post
    Pretend you're a real estate agent selling the same house over and over and over and over again. Each time you get a 30% commission (which the buyer pays in this scenario).

    Now assume that at the start of this chain you stumped up the original $1m to get the house built and at the end of this chain you still own it.
    Breath of fresh air.

    But it's much better than this even. The million you stumped up, you get that and more back right away. The 30% you get to keep in the end (again and again) but you get the whole lot back while still owning the house.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SailorRob View Post
    Breath of fresh air.

    But it's much better than this even. The million you stumped up, you get that and more back right away. The 30% you get to keep in the end (again and again) but you get the whole lot back while still owning the house.
    Yep that's true, and you use that [free] money to start another of these setups and so on and so forth. Quite good.

  7. #18227
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    Quote Originally Posted by iamaskier View Post
    Yep that's true, and you use that [free] money to start another of these setups and so on and so forth. Quite good.
    Oh aye. I mean, name one time a Ponzi scheme never worked out in the end!

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    Quote Originally Posted by iamaskier View Post
    Yep that's true, and you use that [free] money to start another of these setups and so on and so forth. Quite good.
    In fact, I see it now.

    OCA must actually be worth an almost infinite price based on these happy path assumptions and thinking.

    How could one ever pay too much?
    Last edited by mistaTea; 18-01-2024 at 09:52 PM.

  9. #18229
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    In fact, I see it now.

    OCA must actually be worth an almost infinite price based on these happy path assumptions and thinking.

    How could one ever pay too much?
    Slow, but you're getting there.

    Pretty crazy to compare it to a ponzi.

    NZ property market in general is a ponzi however, one that you are massively invested in and will pay the price for.

    But OCA model isn't, pretty obviously.

  10. #18230
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    Oh aye. I mean, name one time a Ponzi scheme never worked out in the end!
    This reminds me of Whinger 69.

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