OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bull....]

^^ surely only a problem if no-one wants to move in?

a worse situation for shareholders (although somewhat unlikely) is all residents living to 150 years old.

just highlighting one potential risk of many around this float thing so many mention. its not risk free as many allude too and diffently is not comparable to an insurance float.

mean you got to hand it to sailor rob and his side kick tattoo ( i mean baa baa ) he spins a good story around float but not intirely accurate.

[Mrbuyit]

For sure there is a liability associated, the last 2 reporting periods show roughly 100m in and 40m out, so there would have to be a fairly fundamental shift in not only the volume of outgoing ORA vs new ORA..

Assuming zero capital gain OCA would have to be incoming ORA at <70% occupancy which would paint a pretty grim picture, where SR's free churn no-longer has the capacity to fund itself.. this could happen i guess under certain circumstances..

I think the bigger risk is unsold / slow to sell stock rather than a mass exodus (unless maybe a strong dose of covid-24 hits our shores)?

[bull....]

For sure there is a liability associated, the last 2 reporting periods show roughly 100m in and 40m out, so there would have to be a fairly fundamental shift in not only the volume of outgoing ORA vs new ORA..

Assuming zero capital gain OCA would have to be incoming ORA at <70% occupancy which would paint a pretty grim picture, where SR's free churn no-longer has the capacity to fund itself.. this could happen i guess under certain circumstances..

I think the bigger risk is unsold / slow to sell stock rather than a mass exodus (unless maybe a strong dose of covid-24 hits our shores)?

yep your highlighting the covid risk of mass exodus and no buyers. why exactly they could have gone bust during covid ( very lucky ).
yes i agree risk is slow sales and liquidity.

[aquaman]

Interesting that on radio today ,noon report, it was mentioned that fund mangers likely selling OCA in anticipation that OCA "may" be removed from index due to re-balancing of index with other stocks coming in. Info re implications
"Being added to an index can boost a stock's price and liquidity because of increased demand, which is often seen as a positive development. Conversely, being removed from an index can lead to a price decline and be perceived negatively. However, these effects are generally short-term and often balance out over time

[aquaman]

An interesting corollary is that a stock can be dropped from an index, not because it's been underperforming, but because the index allows only a set number of stocks and room needs to be made for a new one. This can represent a buying opportunity when a stock whose fundamentals remain strong on the initial selling after being dropped from the index

[ValueNZ]

Interesting that on radio today ,noon report, it was mentioned that fund mangers likely selling OCA in anticipation that OCA "may" be removed from index due to re-balancing of index with other stocks coming in. Info re implications
"Being added to an index can boost a stock's price and liquidity because of increased demand, which is often seen as a positive development. Conversely, being removed from an index can lead to a price decline and be perceived negatively. However, these effects are generally short-term and often balance out over time

Best news I've heard all week.

[mistaTea]

Best news I've heard all week.

Yes. I believe Sailor Bob was also only every going to be truly happy if OCA went to zero. The lower the better anyway

[ValueNZ]

Yes. I believe Sailor Bob was also only every going to be truly happy if OCA went to zero. The lower the better anyway

I too want the company to be given to me for free!

[Daytr]

just highlighting one potential risk of many around this float thing so many mention. its not risk free as many allude too and diffently is not comparable to an insurance float.

mean you got to hand it to sailor rob and his side kick tattoo ( i mean baa baa ) he spins a good story around float but not intirely accurate.

I think a float for OCA WILL be comparable to the insurance industry.
It's not yet as the DMF only starts to build over the life cycle I.e on average 7 year turnover of stock.
How many units did OCA have 7 years ago?
How many do they have now?

[winner69]

Radius Healthcare share price up today ….their float is pretty titchy