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18-09-2018, 06:46 AM
#1921
Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
Do you guys ever consider the macro story where NZX and affecting global markets are at all time highs, vulnerable to serious corrections? Or is it just rose coloured spectacles for years hence based on local demographics (which are undeniably supportive). I think that the next great reckoning will not be kind to any share, and consequently have a much more conservative outlook and cautious approach. Or are you so confident in your abilities to exit a disaster, that you might as well ride the wave until it closes out?
ill go with most stocks having a bull market premium , when it ends one day valuations will return to normal and some will have lost a lot of money and some will have kept a lot of money simple as that.
one step ahead of the herd
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18-09-2018, 06:54 AM
#1922
Originally Posted by percy
Today should the NZX fall 20%, it would drop to 7416, which would still be 31% higher than it was 3 years ago,.
A market correction would bite me if GNE,HBL,MEL,MVN,OCA,PGW,TRA and SPK stopped their divies for more than 2 or 3 years.
So long as their divies keep up, and or grow, their share prices are only academic to me.Fun to watch yes,but the end game must be attaining a portfolio that affords you to retire,without ever having to sell any shares to live on,and being able to rely on increasing dividends to support your lifestyle.
Which begs the question - how much will teh market correct.
If the market were to correct by 20% today I would lose roughly all gains (exc divi)made over the past 9 months leaving in a Dec 2017 neutral position So that is part of my strategy - have a 20% stop loss.
Part of my strategy is to also look at total gain and try to manage exposure in one single stock so it doesnt exceed that gain. So if one stock goes belly up totally (like CBL) my total loss still leaves me neutral.
My expectation is that by the time I come to retire these stocks will no longer have a need to invest so heavily within teh business and will instead revert to much higher divi yields. Should a 20% correction come before I retire hopefully I have time to recover. If it comes when I do retire I expect that I will be able to release some capital over a year or so without a major impact on long term capital.
OCA fits very, very nicely into these plans
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18-09-2018, 07:03 AM
#1923
This is an uncomfortable question that needs to be asked BB, good job.
The responses that have since been forthcoming are ALL excellent from seasoned investors who have without doubt suffered losses and learned from them. Then obviously have adapted their investing style after the pain. Basically, Buy good value that produces solid dividends.
To quote the big man " there is a price at which a company should be bought , a price it should be held and a price it should be sold".
The current market price's most shares in the later category and currently finding something in the "good value" category is quite difficult. OCA is one such gem, at this price.
As an example of the moving valuations, in recent years , shares to attract such "sharetrader" attention by the posters here have been AIR and HLG. Both went through all three categories to the point the posters publicly acknowledged they had gone from keen buyers to reluctant sellers and banked handsome profits (with divis along the way).
Eventually a correction MUST come And there will be pain felt by all, but staying on the sidelines up until now is to lose more. Being invested in good value companies with decent dividends will lose less than overbought "blue chip "stocks that have been pumped up sky high in these good times.
The opinions offered in response to BBs very appropriate question is outstanding and I appreciate you all for taking the time to bother.
Ps. " you just can't have too many oca ...(at this price)"
Last edited by Maverick; 18-09-2018 at 07:49 AM.
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18-09-2018, 08:24 AM
#1924
Originally Posted by couta1
Around a year away from inverting aye winner, might run for the hills when it hits the zero line.
Couts — The zero line might be sonner then you think
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
Even OCA share price will drop like a lead balloon if there is another ‘reckoning’
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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18-09-2018, 09:27 AM
#1925
Originally Posted by Maverick
This is an uncomfortable question that needs to be asked BB, good job.
The responses that have since been forthcoming are ALL excellent from seasoned investors who have without doubt suffered losses and learned from them. Then obviously have adapted their investing style after the pain. Basically, Buy good value that produces solid dividends.
To quote the big man " there is a price at which a company should be bought , a price it should be held and a price it should be sold".
The current market price's most shares in the later category and currently finding something in the "good value" category is quite difficult. OCA is one such gem, at this price.
As an example of the moving valuations, in recent years , shares to attract such "sharetrader" attention by the posters here have been AIR and HLG. Both went through all three categories to the point the posters publicly acknowledged they had gone from keen buyers to reluctant sellers and banked handsome profits (with divis along the way).
Eventually a correction MUST come And there will be pain felt by all, but staying on the sidelines up until now is to lose more. Being invested in good value companies with decent dividends will lose less than overbought "blue chip "stocks that have been pumped up sky high in these good times.
The opinions offered in response to BBs very appropriate question is outstanding and I appreciate you all for taking the time to bother.
Ps. " you just can't have too many oca ...(at this price)"
We can all go back to sleep today because you're not going to read a better post than that from anyone. I couldn't agree more and have done handsomely well from the other shares mentioned and agree they're fulsomely priced, unlike OCA.
Last edited by Beagle; 18-09-2018 at 09:28 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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18-09-2018, 09:46 AM
#1926
Originally Posted by Maverick
Ps. " you just can't have too many oca ...(at this price)"
I think MAQ will agree with you and i wonder when the next dump is coming.
Be int to see Brokers valns shared on here
Craigs latest 18/9 is a 1 year target price of $1.18, Their consensus from "3 brokers" is 1 buy and 2 hold with vain target range from $1.13 to $1.22, what others do folks have access to would be of int.
Last edited by Joshuatree; 18-09-2018 at 09:52 AM.
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19-09-2018, 08:17 AM
#1927
Hi commentators. Re the possible "correction". I note no comments on the big new boy in town and he's not going away anytime.
He is the rise of truly enormous state sponsored etc pension funds. Little NZ has $90 Billion already (only thanks to the peoples government getting the two underway). Aussie has $9 trillion (Heavens only knows what that looks like) and the Aussie fund is only the 4th biggest in existence. I gather all these funds are growing rapidly and they all (every single one) lead to Mr Market. I believe the future for good businesses, ethically run, has never ever been better (investment IPO's, Capital issues, Bonds etc) and will remain so for quite some years ? However Lunatic Government borrowing is a matter of concern I sure do agree but Keynes never seemed too worried!
Last edited by warren; 19-09-2018 at 08:19 AM.
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19-09-2018, 11:06 PM
#1928
Very good presentation by Earl Gasparich at the NZ shareholders association Auckland branch meeting this evening.
Posting this while I can remember it. Circa 272 units to be delivered this year up massively from last year.
Delivery is weighted to the second half, about 80 in the first half, balance second half.
Independent living village average stay is 7 years, apartment 5 years and care suite's 2.5-3 years.
License to occupy model on care suites to see a major change in the care mix as they roll out their developments in the years ahead. Moving over time to 60% v 40 care suites v standard care units funded by Govt. License to occupy on care suites involves 10% per annum attrition in elderly folks investment. Much higher churn rate, (opps sorry I know that's a politically sensitive term but lets just go with it and call it what it is) on care suites suggests very good returns for shareholders in the years ahead.
I think they'll do 10-11 cps in underlying earnings this year which puts them on a forward PE of 11.7 - 10.6. This for a fast growing company in a sector with huge tailwinds and in a market where the average forward market PE is just north of 20. Earl Gasparich really impressed.
Disc: I bought even more earlier today, now my #1 position.
Last edited by Beagle; 19-09-2018 at 11:08 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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20-09-2018, 07:45 AM
#1929
Thanks to NZSA for putting it on, for Beagle to share.
Interesting to note Greg Tomlinson is a director and a major shareholder in both OCA and HBL.
[not a lot of people know that.!.lol]
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20-09-2018, 08:57 AM
#1930
Originally Posted by percy
Thanks to NZSA for putting it on, for Beagle to share.
Interesting to note Greg Tomlinson is a director and a major shareholder in both OCA and HBL.
[not a lot of people know that.!.lol]
And he bought 2,000,000 shares in the recent placement. Someone said on here a while back that you can't have too many OCA. When you consider those metrics posted above and the gross yeild this year of over 5% along with their growth prospects, my goodness...I think he's dead right !
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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