OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Daytr]

OCA share price down, and the WAHs lose? I didn't realise the result of these games was pre-determined in advance! I always thought the game result was determined on the field. That just shows how little I know about league. I might have to get into sports betting, now I know how it all works.

I went to the OCA website to find out more about the rules. I read that players under 70 are not allowed. That seems to be a bit of a strange rule for Brent to implement. Maybe if he put a few younger members in the team, the WAHs would perform better?

SNOOPY

Perhaps it's not just a precursor...

People watching The Warriors and expecting a different result is the definition of what? It saddens me to say I have friends who are true followers of the Wahs. My guess is they have too much time on their hands.

OCAs year was 2021. Next cycle is 2025 after rates are cut?

Yeah I have friends like that as well. Got to admire their commitment & enthusiasm. The Warriors must be doing something right to garner such loyal shareholders... I mean supporters. 🤣

[Balance]

The Helier Private Care Residences now open.

Attachment 15052

No mention of how many private care residents?

"CEO Brent Pattison call the “private care model”, costing around $3500/week or $182,000/year. The exact weekly fee will depend on the level of care required but the concept is to provide hospital-standard rest home and palliative care for residents at the luxurious end of the market."

Gulp!

[Bjauck]

The Helier Private Care Residences now open.

Attachment 15052

As a shareholder this is a ray of good news. It is a fantastic place from what I have seen from the outside and from publicity.

However, I wonder if the deputy Mayor of Auckland will turn up when the more standard Wesley Care Centre closes. I hope standard care beds receive Council attention too.

[Rawz]

After the poor sales update from OCA I should have known the Wahs would lose. Could have made easy money from the TAB.

[Maverick]

Seems Oceania only sold about 69 new units in second half of year H224 …..new sales about the same as H223

No wonder a bit light on real detail …hopefully thinking the market will go into raptures with some big numbers

Continued growth in resales is good …..but the new sales not good.

Maverick ..am I about right …please check for me

If right you disappointed?

Hey Winner,
I've been out of coverage and away from my stuff.

I'm incredibly disappointed. With sales clues from SUM and ARV sales and the general thawing of the housing market sales should have been 2hy of 55-65. Instead it appears we are around 35-40 . Up until we have had covid issues, understaffing of care, weather events, lockdowns …whatever.
This time there is no excuse, no reason . I'm gob smacked.

We have been told enough to believe about 15 Christchurch should have sold, maybe 15-20 Helier (sales “pleasantly surprising” as I recall) , then Hamilton is going well now so maybe another 10-15 . Add a few reminants from Eden and then Tauranga in full swing , say 12 ….thats 55-60 …..how the heck do we only sell c. 35-40???

It's possible that the sales result, which is a combo of new apartments and care suites could actually comprise good apartment sales and very poor care suite new sales. Perhaps the new care suites are locked up with grandfathered residents , or maybe sold as PACs or perhaps they weren't actually quite ready for occupation as indicated . ie Blenheim is definitely delayed, Helier seems to have only just opened.

Another thing is that while HY1 had very good sales volume , they were lower value and lower margin whereas Hy2 had high value and high margin….so net profit may not be too bad.

This is just me clutching at straws when in all likeness they just had sucky apartment sales.

It is not possible to untease this further until we get more info so for now it does look reasonable that we are going to get , at the very best, a flat result.

I think for now , that Forbar is spot on that things will only pick up with OCA when the property market properly turns.

I can't help but wonder that Brent's exit and these sales / strategy are related. I do take comfort that some directors are heavily invested in OCA and they will be having the same WTF feelings.

I'm not selling yet, there is still good stuff in the result and at play but I am bitterly disappointed at this point with these sales numbers. Also at $0.62c all this has been priced in. After reworking my numbers based on this update I agree with the analysts TP of slightly under $1 by Christmas. When the sales finally do pick up (they will at some stage as the product always used to sell ok) then we are away but when that is,is the big question.

Baa baa has rightly said its all about sales sales sales and this result is showing is that aint now.

[Grimy]

Anecdotal, but I've had three neighbours move to retirement villages in the past 6 months. One to a Metlife village and two to privately owned ones.
My sister has her name down for a Bupa village.
Not one of them had considered an Oceania village. I understand that with my sister as not one nearby, but for the others Oceania seemed to be off their radar.
I'm West Auckland, which isn't catered for by Oceania unless you go to Hobsonville, or towards town, which is a bit of a gap in the market I feel.
But all three looked around other parts of Auckland as well as West, and one has gone to Mt. Albert, so moving out of area wasn't really a barrier.
I'm a long time holder, but although they seem to be doing the right things generally, sometimes things just don't seem quite right.
Perhaps it's priced as it is for a reason.....
As has been said - sales are everything to get this company going.

[Maverick]

Historically , selling delivered apartments fully down has always taken OCA about 2 years to do. A bit more or less depending on the fervour of the market. If we add the current 24HY1 + HY2 then surprisingly they are still within that 2 year metric when considering their available stock. It’s just that HY1 sales were rather good , it kind of set false expectations, certainly for me.
One could argue that selling apartments things too fast now would create a deficit in stock next year as next deliveries are a wee while away. May as well hang out for top dollar. ( that’s me really clutching at straws to understand this )

Don’t think I’m justifying this poor result but it may no be quite as bad as it first seems AS LONG AS ITS A ONE OFF. These apartments always used to sell ok, so no reason to think they suddenly have become undesirable.

I remain confused however for how it is even possible to sell so few given the market warming and OCAs stock levels and stage of sell downs. Then coupled with their public statements they have made in the last 5 months. Something just doesn’t add up in all this.

These fy24 sales are actually still in keeping within the standard 2 year sell down period they have proven ever since they were NZX listed (although fluctuating up and down per 6 months). So I remain ( albeit rather unhappily) in limbo on this result until we are told more.

[Daytr]

Sign of things to come. 5.99% 2 year rate is considerably lower than the major banks are offering.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-...snare-outsized

[winner69]

Good to hear from you Mav.

Certainly doesn’t look like they sold 55 apartments in 2nd half eh?

You say “Something just doesn’t add up in all this.” …..I mentioned the same the other day

Whatever it was a weird announcent …so vague and open to so much conjecture …not good

[ValueNZ]

Historically , selling delivered apartments fully down has always taken OCA about 2 years to do. A bit more or less depending on the fervour of the market. If we add the current 24HY1 + HY2 then surprisingly they are still within that 2 year metric when considering their available stock. It’s just that HY1 sales were rather good , it kind of set false expectations, certainly for me.
One could argue that selling apartments things too fast now would create a deficit in stock next year as next deliveries are a wee while away. May as well hang out for top dollar. ( that’s me really clutching at straws to understand this )

Don’t think I’m justifying this poor result but it may no be quite as bad as it first seems AS LONG AS ITS A ONE OFF. These apartments always used to sell ok, so no reason to think they suddenly have become undesirable.

I remain confused however for how it is even possible to sell so few given the market warming and OCAs stock levels and stage of sell downs. Then coupled with their public statements they have made in the last 5 months. Something just doesn’t add up in all this.

These fy24 sales are actually still in keeping within the standard 2 year sell down period they have proven ever since they were NZX listed (although fluctuating up and down per 6 months). So I remain ( albeit rather unhappily) in limbo on this result until we are told more.

I suppose the question becomes how large of a difference does it make to us shareholders if selling down the current available stock takes a bit longer than expected.

I would suggest that the difference isn't too much between waiting 3-4 years instead of 2 years. Let me know if I'm wrong here...

But I don't think it's worth getting wound up over poor(ish) short term results.

You said it yourself, standard 8c per share of earnings gives us roughly a earnings yield of 13%. I would be okay with a forward 13% return in perp, but it's clear to you and I that in say 5-10 years OCA will be earning way more than that. Patience is key.