OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[trader_jackson]

Over 3.5m shares changed hands and we haven't even opened yet... interesting times.

[Joshuatree]

Buyers outweighing sellers for change and some chunky buys there.

[Jantar]

Buyers outweighing sellers for change and some chunky buys there.

I had been waiting for it to drop a bit further, but bought a small number this morning at $0.79. Very pleased to see it is already at $0.81. That means I have recovered the brokerage fees plus a bit.

[carrom74]

A sell order has a "u" letter in it.Can anyone please explain what is means?

[Beagle]

"u" = undisclosed seller. To be an undisclosed seller you have to ask for your order to be lodged as that and as I understand it have a minimum order quantity of $100,000 value. Could just be ~ 125,000 shares or 12,500,000 shares or more or any number in between.

[carrom74]

"u" = undisclosed seller. To be an undisclosed seller you have to ask for your order to be lodged as that and as I understand it have a minimum order quantity of $100,000 value. Could just be ~ 125,000 shares or 12,500,000 shares or more or any number in between.

Thanks Roger...If that is the case then can a director/CEO sell his/her shares and be an undisclosed seller?

[Beagle]

Thanks Roger...If that is the case then can a director/CEO sell his/her shares and be an undisclosed seller?

Yes absolutely but they must subsequently disclose this sale in the normal way by announcing it to the market within five ? (I think it is), working days.

[trader_jackson]

I am quite shocked OCA didn't do better on the first day, apparent huge demand, only listing this year, attractive long term sector tailwinds... how could it not finish up at least on the first day?! But I do agree with the above... I think the general concerns around the entire sector were realized for OCA on Friday... almost reminds me of exactly what happened when ARV listed in December 2014... similar company (although OCA is much bigger, and has a much bigger development pipeline) and went up a fraction, before finishing at listing price... then trended downward as the market struggled to price it (believe the story), before a huge re-rating caused it to be the best performer on the stock exchange by a blue mile (last year)

I believe it is trading a fair bit below 'fair value' , however the market has clearly decided OCA's forecasts are overly optimistic, and skeptical why it took nearly 3 years to bring it to market ... time will tell if these concerns are warranted. Oceania’s has been owned for the past 12 years through Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets’ managed funds, not exactly a PE Feltex, DSE or TGH quick pump and dump (no articles before, during and after the offer closed saying how great demand has been, and how easy the shares have been to sell were also not present as per typical PE listing). Perhaps some have forgotten SUM was also PE?
Maybe the market also has concerns on this (like they did with all the supposed accounting issues ARV would have?). Perhaps, ironically, even if it missed it by a mile and had no growth from 2017 to 2018, it would still be the cheapest retirement play on an underlying basis!
(would it be bold for me to say I thin they will exceed FY18 guidance?)

Early next week we could see a hangover from the stags who thought they could make a tidy double digit percentage gain on the first day, now not interested in holding any longer and will sell at (nearly) any price, but once thing settle down (and broker reports come out?) we could see an uplift in price, the price moving no where, or perhaps it even trending down due to negative sector tail winds... so who really knows... again, time will tell.

Disclosure: Brought some at 82 cents, under 10 PE if they hit FY18 targets

Well, back to breaking even (for me)... seems the tables have turned, the stags have dumped, and this has taken a couple of days for the market to 'digest', with most likely profiting alot less than expected (or maybe even losing a cent).

Under strong volume (5.6m) and (for what its worth) buys now outweighing sells by 4 to 1... we could be at the start of where the market decides to rate OCA a bit more realistically (even if we all know it is like arvida and no more than a dog at heart )

[Joshuatree]

Up 4c to 84c today( 2.4% same % as SUM) ,buys 2 to 1 of sells , 2.7 mill shares through.Happy with that.

[Beagle]

Up 4c to 84c today( 2.4% same % as SUM) ,buys 2 to 1 of sells , 2.7 mill shares through.Happy with that.

Not too late to switch...you know you want that proven thoroughbred rather than some filly that struggled through the trials with only just enough form to make it to the starting gate and might even fall at the first hurdle