OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[trader_jackson]

Not too late to switch...you know you want that proven thoroughbred rather than some filly that struggled through the trials with only just enough form to make it to the starting gate and might even fall at the first hurdle

Old Mark and Jill, some of the bigwig insiders at Oceania with millions of shares already between them (General Manager Property and General Manager, Sales, Marketing & Villages respectively) must be taking some big risks dishing out a couple hundred thousand between them... given OCA's apparent dreadful lack of growth and 'dog like' structure eh?

Reminds me of when 2 or 3 Arvida directors were buying in the mid 80 cents... which was largely ignored by the wider market.

They fact they brought on day 1 shows you either that they wanted more shares (exposure) to the company than the company gave them and/or how confident they must be in OCA's prospects to go out now and buy asap... results after all aren't that far away.

[Baa_Baa]

Old Mark and Jill, some of the bigwig insiders at Oceania with millions of shares already between them (General Manager Property and General Manager, Sales, Marketing & Villages respectively) must be taking some big risks dishing out a couple hundred thousand between them... given OCA's apparent dreadful lack of growth and 'dog like' structure eh?

Reminds me of when 2 or 3 Arvida directors were buying in the mid 80 cents... which was largely ignored by the wider market.

They fact they brought on day 1 shows you either that they wanted more shares (exposure) to the company than the company gave them and/or how confident they must be in OCA's prospects to go out now and buy asap... results after all aren't that far away.

Keep it up TJ, while there's little value in constantly reminding people of what was overlooked or belittled in the past, as many here will brush it off because they only invest in established proven entities, it is valuable to have advocacy and insights that point to a bright future for newly listed entrants. Some are prepared to take greater risks earlier, while others will wait until proof of compelling sustainable value and not hesitate to point out the risks of doing otherwise. Each to their own, I think your contributions are refreshing and I look forward to reading more from you.

[trader_jackson]

Keep it up TJ, while there's little value in constantly reminding people of what was overlooked or belittled in the past, as many here will brush it off because they only invest in established proven entities, it is valuable to have advocacy and insights that point to a bright future for newly listed entrants. Some are prepared to take greater risks earlier, while others will wait until proof of compelling sustainable value and not hesitate to point out the risks of doing otherwise. Each to their own, I think your contributions are refreshing and I look forward to reading more from you.

Thanks Baa_Baa (I probably do harp on too much about arvida... but then again alot of people harped on about how bad Arvida was...)

I do will be watching OCA with interest, and look forward to (hopefully) a few broker reports coming out about them.

Only time will tell what will outcome will really be... what is certain is that OCA shares could go up, down or stay the same

[King1212]

Thanks Baa_Baa (I probably do harp on too much about arvida... but then again alot of people harped on about how bad Arvida was...)

I do will be watching OCA with interest, and look forward to (hopefully) a few broker reports coming out about them.

Only time will tell what will outcome will really be... what is certain is that OCA shares could go up, down or stay the same

Arvida's result in 2 weeks TJ!

[percy]

I have been on Yahoo charts comparing ARV and SUM over the past two years.
SUM was a fast starter, while ARV has been a fast finisher.
So after two years SUM is up 49.13% while ARV is up 46.77%.Surprised me how close together they are.
Now we have the next two years to look forward to,seeing whether OCA can keep up,or get ahead of SUM and ARV .
In the meantime I expect RYM to keep them all honest.!
I don't follow MET,and hold both RYM and SUM

[Beagle]

I have been on Yahoo charts comparing ARV and SUM over the past two years.
SUM was a fast starter, while ARV has been a fast finisher.
So after two years SUM is up 49.13% while ARV is up 46.77%.Surprised me how close together they are.
Now we have the next two years to look forward to,seeing whether OCA can keep up,or get ahead of SUM and ARV .
In the meantime I expect RYM to keep them all honest.!
I don't follow MET,and hold both RYM and SUM

You "inadvertently" overlooked mentioning how RYM have performed over the last two years. Let me help you out. They have ostensibly tracked sideways for three years now within a fairly tight trading range. A couple of people on here, (pretty sure I don't need to name them ) predicted this three years ago and have been bang on the money. I have certainly enjoyed some of Couta1's industry insights shared on here about Oceania.

[Joshuatree]

Can you please confirm that by showing the posts that predicted this 3 years ago, thanks.

[percy]

You "inadvertently" overlooked mentioning how RYM have performed over the last two years. Let me help you out. They have ostensibly tracked sideways for three years now within a fairly tight trading range. A couple of people on here, (pretty sure I don't need to name them ) predicted this three years ago and have been bang on the money. I have certainly enjoyed some of Couta1's industry insights shared on here about Oceania.

No "inadvertently" at all.RYM are nicely tucked in my "free" hold and forget portfolio.
SUM was also there,but recently having decided I did not hold enough in this sector, I added more SUM,as I like their model, which offcourse is based on RYM's.
I have never bothered with MET,as I think they have management issues, as well as being too concentrated in Auckland and Tauranga.
So I looked again at ARV and OCA ,and decided my original conculsions, that they were on the main part a hotchpotch of mainly small second rate villages were still valid.
Bit like buying a group of Pak'nSave supermarkets,rather than a whole lot of 4 square stores.

[Beagle]

Can you please confirm that by showing the posts that predicted this 3 years ago, thanks.

Sorry JT it would take me too long. There are numerous posts in early - mid 2014 wherein Winner 69 and I shared this viewpoint at significant length. The nub of it was that the SP in the three years leading up to early 2014 had risen approx. 300% whereas the underlying EPS was vastly lower than that. It ran FAR ahead of fair value when trading around the current SP level's in early 2014 and Winner 69 and I predicted numerous times the SP was likely to stay flat for several years. Its all there in black and white. You are most welcome to go back and invest the time yourself if you doubt my word on it.
BUT wait there is more...I did find a couple of spare minutes to dig out a small sample of my posts from May 2014 which I copied and posted in the RYM thread.
There's plenty more there for anyone interested and plenty more in the SUM thread wherein I concluded that SUM offered a significantly better opportunity going forward than RYM. Comparing their relative performance over the last three years that indeed proved to be the case. I still see SUM as better value than RYM but if RYM achieve their 15% underlying growth target for the year to 31 March 2017 to be announced later this month and indicate they think they're capable of replicating that going forward my calculations show they'll be on a 2018 underlying PE of ~ 21. If everything is confirmed to be on track my preliminary thinking is RYM would finally now be fair value at around the current price.

[couta1]

I can confirm what Roger is saying is true regarding himself and winner's predictions, I know because I had a parcel at $8.60 that didn't go anywhere for a couple of years until a temporal spike occured, and remember reading their annoying but true posts.