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10-03-2019, 09:20 PM
#3231
My two cents, OCA like the other aged care providers are fundamentally a challenging business model to understand at the accounts detail level, let alone their complex obfuscated wording in the accounts. They are a unwieldy mix of property investing alongwith the business of profitably caring for our elderly, their income source is spread across individuals and government funding with complex rules. There are really smart people here who can help with that, I don't pretend to be an expert in the FA although I do study it, but I'm happy to offer some insights to the SP movements.
OCA is currently captive to market sentiment, which is negative. Look up 'momentum trading', Google will give you some insights. Smart traders rode the SP momentum up past its real value (price) and sold into the trend, maybe somewhat influenced by a ramp attack here, who knows really. Fact is though, it's sold off after sentiment said it was too high and maybe still is (TA says so). Currently OCA has recently tested its longer term resistance levels around $1.11-$1.09 (also failing the 50MA resistance).. now settling below.
It reckon that's a fair market price range, so where we are right now is a decent buy, below that on the technicals with a downside risk of a few cents if it plumbs the March to May 2018 lows, which if it does I'd also be happy to buy into. If property prices collapse, it will affect all aged care providers property business, but one needs a longer term horizon, they will recover. None of these stocks are short term holds unless you're a bonafide SP trader.
If you look through all the talk, whether FA or TA, you might see that the next period of time is a good opportunity for taking a position, or accumulating onto a position. It doesn't look like a 'sell a position' to me, unless you've lost faith in the company, that would be capitulation at this price.
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11-03-2019, 08:35 AM
#3232
Excellent advice & knowledgeable common sense answers on both FA & TA to Champions post. Thanks people. Great to have a benchmark of opinion to measure portfolio mix. Discl. OCA 25% of portfolio.
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11-03-2019, 09:38 AM
#3233
Not a biggie - but it looks like Sally Evans (one of the newer directors) thought the current SP weakness is a good opportunity to buy her first parcel (20k) of OCA shares:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...722/296485.pdf
Ah yes - and talking about downtrends - anybody noticed that the SP seems to bounce along the EMA400 (yellow in the pic below) which is currently $1.04? So, maybe this is as dark as it gets ...
OCAtrend.jpg
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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11-03-2019, 10:07 AM
#3234
[QUOTE=BlackPeter;750787]Not a biggie - but it looks like Sally Evans (one of the newer directors) thought the current SP weakness is a good opportunity to buy her first parcel (20k) of OCA shares:
You right, one director buying not a biggie.
It looks however more significant if one realise that 2 directors bought shares in Feb and the GM property Mark Stockton in Jan.
That are 4 insiders buying in sort period of time, might give others the confidence to buy.
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11-03-2019, 10:14 AM
#3235
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Not a biggie - but it looks like Sally Evans (one of the newer directors) thought the current SP weakness is a good opportunity to buy her first parcel (20k) of OCA shares:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...722/296485.pdf
Ah yes - and talking about downtrends - anybody noticed that the SP seems to bounce along the EMA400 (yellow in the pic below) which is currently $1.04? So, maybe this is as dark as it gets ...
OCAtrend.jpg
Yes I would think there is very sound long term value at this level.
I agree with Maverick that HLG financial statements are very simple to understand, by FAR, the simplest of any company that I own on the NZX. I like the company a lot too. On the other hand even for professionals the OCA accounts are a VERY hard read in my opinion.
Last edited by Beagle; 11-03-2019 at 10:19 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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11-03-2019, 10:49 AM
#3236
Good on Sally ...she’s a hero buying some Oceania shares ..probably took her that long to help bderstand the company
Only taken a year for her to get involved ...but we will forgive her
No longer truely independent now ..has a vested interest
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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11-03-2019, 01:40 PM
#3237
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Not a biggie - but it looks like Sally Evans (one of the newer directors) thought the current SP weakness is a good opportunity to buy her first parcel (20k) of OCA shares:
not that she bought them in weakness, paying 1.10 per share as per the notice.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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13-03-2019, 12:14 PM
#3238
1.04 looking vunerable again
one step ahead of the herd
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13-03-2019, 12:35 PM
#3239
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by bull....
1.04 looking vunerable again
Whatll happen if it breaks below 1.04 bull...
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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13-03-2019, 12:36 PM
#3240
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by winner69
What’ll happen if it breaks below 1.04 bull...
re sales will probably go up
one step ahead of the herd
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