OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[whatsup]

Strong buying right on close here in N Z , will it carry on in Aust for the next hour, ( TWT ) time will tell.

[King1212]

Strong buying right on close here in N Z , will it carry on in Aust for the next hour, ( TWT ) time will tell.

What to carry,....no seller over oz market..none...

[whatsup]

Big close on OCA today , I wonder if the momentium will continue into Aust for the next hour.

[King1212]

Big close on OCA today , I wonder if the momentium will continue into Aust for the next hour.

I know what u meant, but the depth shows no sellers......there are a lot of buyers....

[whatsup]

Very interesting bearing in mind that the full years ann is not due until Thurs 27 th July, theres more support to come if there is a "good news " leak from inside !

[trader_jackson]

Post #162 by Roger / beagle day after IPO day (5/5/2017 11am) "You actually believe their forecast ? Don't you think its a little odd they'd bring this to market so close to their end of year for 31 May 2017 ? Guess why ? So they can say, look, we got that forecast right. It's the 40% growth in underlying earnings for FY18 that I for one am taking with a grain of salt. Call me a hardened cynic if you like, I don't honestly care but they've been trying for years to float this thing and if they hadn't of forecast 40% growth nobody would have been interested.
Huge vested interest to make that FY18 growth forecast ! Tegal or Feltex Mk2 in my opinion."

beagle, do you still believe they will miss their FY18 forecast?

For me, their commentary on FY18 will be more important than this years result (which should really be, as you have mentioned, in the bag)

(Disclosure: I have from day 1, which is also when I brought, as mentioned)

[Lawstudent]

Hi All,

With results on Thursday, could I ask the main things that will continue growth?
Is it?
- 2018 Outlook? IE how many units / beds they will be looking to fill for the upcoming year? If yes, how do we gauge this, is it based on projections or demand? (As a side note, I hear them advertising on NEWSTALKZB from time to time for retirees).
-Progress of future developments?

Issues that reduce growth
- Impact of the pay rise rise from public to private sector. Has this flowed across to Oceania?
- Property market slowing down?
- Bit of an outsider, but could the change of govt effect OCA's future? IE TOP's equity party?

Also, with FY Results, is this when they announce upcoming DIV yield?

Thanks to any who answer. Still trying to become a 'novice trader'.

[777]

Dividend yield is not able to be announced. They can announce the amount of dividend they are going to pay and give some guidance to future payments but yield is a calculation of dividend versus share price and thus changes everytime the price of the share changes.

[Beagle]

IPO forecasts deserve to be treated with extra special caution because companies have 1. No demonstrated listed track record upon which investors can assess the veracity of their previous forecasting and 2. IPO forecasts are made with the primary intention of attracting investors and therefore promotors have a huge vested interest in putting the brightest lipstick on.

IF they can prove up the veracity of their business model over the next 2-3 years there is the potential for a PE re-rating. I deemed it prudent to wait until after the IPO to see where the market really felt the stock and to see if an upward trajectory could be sustained. It back tested the IPO price and has moved up. IPO investors took an extra risk and in this case have earned an extra return to date however this isn't always the case. Risk and reward go hand and hand. I deem this unproven stock to be much riskier than a proven performer like SUM which is why I have significantly more capital invested in a well proven rapidly growing company like SUM.
I trust that answers your question TJ. I agree that the commentary will be more important than the result itself. We could in my opinion see it move up to a PE of about 12 over the next 12 months IF they prove up their forecast.

[winner69]

Hopefully $1 plus tomorrow - better to have a stock with $ signs in front of it's share pirice to give it greater credibility (punters wary of those priced just in cents?)

So with the expected good announcement on Thursday it should take off .....wonder how high!