OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

Good point Mav.

[Maverick]

Cheers Beagle, Winner and BLack Peter for your thoughts/opinions over on the SUM thread re OCA.
Thought I'd revive this thread rather than divert the happiness party over there. Ps,this thread was 3.5 pages down. Man , this company is really on the "ignore" list!
Firstly , I'm completely comfortable waiting for the inevitable catch-up , I'm not a trader and want to keep my "investing " status with the IRD that way . So that precludes being in and out of shares for a short time.Getting a 4.5 % Gross divi sure helps with my patience too as BP mentions.
Im very pleased to see ALL the other retirement stocks (even good Ol' MET) getting reinvigorated, OCA will catch up at some point.
I have absolutely no concerns about Maquarie killing the SP long term. I think that damage is already, more than, fully priced in. I personally suspect they will do a back room deal overnight at some stage. Whatever SP reaction happens, it will be only temporary and will surely preceed a SP solid rise once it has washed out.
Lastly the maths on OCA is very strong for FY20. There are 3 main categories that make the underlying profit;
Care profit -As previously stated , both by my calcs and also Earls recent AGM statement, will be inline with last year, 25m.
Overall corporate and finance costs- This should also be inline with last year . Last year was a significant step up in development costs which will be stable as this year has similar building ambitions, so no significant increases on FY19 here.
Property profit-We know how many new and resales are available, the rate of sales, the margins and the prices. This is where the wall of moola will flood in, it's inevitable and already happening.
I have previously given my own expectations of underlying profit and anticpated SP 10 months from now. There is one big pot of tax free reward for the waiting, if I'm right.
I do appreciate your thoughts though fellas but don't worry about me, I'm as happy as a pig in Sh...t.

[Mudfish]

Alan Isaac buying in. Not huge but the faith is strong.

[tuaman]

Alan Isaac buying in. Not huge but the faith is strong.

Without THEIR supporting the price we might have seen under $1.

[winner69]

Alan Isaac buying in. Not huge but the faith is strong.

sort of gives you some confidence that they are not leading you up the garden path with all the hype but no earnings growth

it might all come right ...one day

[suse]

It's a slow ride this one. I bought shares in OCA 2 years ago and basically they are the same price give or take a cent. Still at least I havent lost a bundle (unlike on some other bad choices I made around the same time)

[percy]

sort of gives you some confidence that they are not leading you up the garden path with all the hype but no earnings growth

it might all come right ...one day

Director Gregg Tomlinson has also been adding to his substantial holding.
Neither he or Alan Isaac are mugs.

[RTM]

Director Gregg Tomlinson has also been adding to his substantial holding.
Neither he or Alan Isaac are mugs.

RTM is trying to add to his unsubstantial holding.
As neither Greg or Alan are mugs.
Recycling money from THL. Their direction concerns me.

[Beagle]

Good they got another major consent approved today and future development pipeline is 84% consented. Very impressive...if only they had an internal development model and could control development costs... A major point of difference between this one and RYM and SUM is these guys use external construction companies but project manage it themselves.
Its one thing to get consent for a development which is great but quite another to get a quality construction company to give you a competitive fixed price construction quote in the prevailing construction market. I doubt they'll get margin's in the 30%+ range or anywhere even close like they did on the Sands going forward from here...

Yes those investors are no mugs but my sense is they are playing a very, very long game...which is fine as long as you have the patience.
I might have another sniff when Macca's finally sell their last tranche, whichever year that might be.

[RTM]

[QUOTE=Beagle;771236

Yes those investors are no mugs but my sense is they are playing a very, very long game...which is fine as long as you have the patience.
I might have another sniff when Macca's finally sell their last tranche, whichever year that might be.[/QUOTE]

As long as they keep the modest dividend coming, then I am OK with the long game. Slow steady growth over the next 10 years or so will be perfect.