OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[dobby41]

What private equity takeover..winner? I hope not.... otherwise All NZX companies will be taken out n we have no NZ companies

Given Kiwis have a bad habit of selling into an offer this is entirely possible.
We don't seem to back much for the long term - get a nice looking short term offer and off we go.

[Beagle]

I've got a question for the seniors here who have worked inside corporate life (like you Winner)

OCA has shot up so quick on no news. Yes yes , lots of catch up to happen and still way under valued IMO but the speed has been breath taking. Now this is OCA we are talking about, It's almost famous for being so boringly flat.(check out the SP graph for the last year)
Soooo , my question .....is it a likely scenario that the fellas doing the HY 1 results right now (the period finished end on November and due out end of next month) have spilled the beans on a really good upcoming result? I personally am anticipating it to be a 30 % profit increase YOY.
if my calcs are in fact correct on the big jump in profit, then is a leak possible or no way that actually happens here?
I am ignorant on this , while it's seems likely to me leaks happen, I know the penalties are very harsh in NZ.

The whole sector is on fire and anticipating a good year ahead. Yes, it really is that simple.

[BlackPeter]

Bigger than OCA, but just some random thoughts:

Just listening to the news of Australia on fire ... and looking at the Australian population pyramid (https://www.worldometers.info/demogr...-demographics/). Nearly 4 million Australians are currently between 65 and 85 and each of them can at any stage just hop on a plane to NZ and stay here forever.

If only 1% of them decide that they have enough of the increasing heat and the smoke and want to spend the reminder of their years in a more benign climate with less smoke in the air - this would be already 40.000 more people queuing up for a nice retirement village place in NZ.

I recon I need to increase my share of retirement stocks (with OCA being one of the most reasonable priced) . The future looks sizzling hot ...

[Blue Skies]

Bigger than OCA, but just some random thoughts:

Just listening to the news of Australia on fire ... and looking at the Australian population pyramid (https://www.worldometers.info/demogr...-demographics/). Nearly 4 million Australians are currently between 65 and 85 and each of them can at any stage just hop on a plane to NZ and stay here forever.

If only 1% of them decide that they have enough of the increasing heat and the smoke and want to spend the reminder of their years in a more benign climate with less smoke in the air - this would be already 40.000 more people queuing up for a nice retirement village place in NZ.

I recon I need to increase my share of retirement stocks (with OCA being one of the most reasonable priced) . The future looks sizzling hot ...

Yes, I've been thinking the same thing

[Brain]

We have been taking friends from Wellington around retirement villages. They had almost decided on a two bedroom unit at summerset Ellerslie for about 900k. I took them out to the Sands and it was a no brainer for them they paid a deposit the next day for a 1.2 M$ unit. We were all very impressed with the Sands. Proximity to the beach and restaurants in Browns Bay make it an excellent location. Our friends had a number of units to choose from. Oceania will not have any trouble selling these ultimately. The restriction that all residents have to be 70 and over could rule out a lot of prospective buyers. OCA have done a great job with the Sands. I believe it bodes well for the future. I am a happy shareholder.

[Baa_Baa]

... also how Macca is playing the market. Price action now vaguely similar in the leadup to the last sell Macca sell down. Watch this space.

But then again it might just be private equity taking a stake before launching a takeover.

Other than doing nothing which seems to be the case (if they had done anything it would be announced if more than a % movement) Macquarie might be looking at the nice rise recently to find some insto's to offload to off-market. Otherwise there's no evidence Macquarie are doing anything at the moment and they probably see the potential to close out their fund that OCA is part of with a windfall profit... which isn't now or anytime soon.

As for private equity, who knows really, the big money might want to hedge their acquisition plays in this sector in which case OCA is a logical alternative choice value play to buying the leaky building saga at MET. I'd be disappointed to see an acquisition bid on OCA, I reckon they'll run up a 3-5 bagger from here before the serious money wants a long term sniff.

[Maverick]

We have been taking friends from Wellington around retirement villages. They had almost decided on a two bedroom unit at summerset Ellerslie for about 900k. I took them out to the Sands and it was a no brainer for them they paid a deposit the next day for a 1.2 M$ unit. We were all very impressed with the Sands. Proximity to the beach and restaurants in Browns Bay make it an excellent location. Our friends had a number of units to choose from. Oceania will not have any trouble selling these ultimately. The restriction that all residents have to be 70 and over could rule out a lot of prospective buyers. OCA have done a great job with the Sands. I believe it bodes well for the future. I am a happy shareholder.

Nice feed back Brain, thanks for posting.
Yes, once you've visited OCAs Sands(and others ) you can clearly see their style with the premium makeovers they are all about , and the areas they are in.
By any chance do you or your friends know how many units were sold and under contract (or still available) and the sale price groups they fall into, they have 3 rates. And if you do know any of this what was the date.

[Beagle]

If they ran a disciplined approach towards cost control I'd be in. The market needs to see more evidence that internal controls regarding cost are working well. OCA could get some support in 2020 from funds reinvested into the sector from the cash generated by the takeover of MET. The other big beneficiary from a MET takeover will be SUM which is still cheap on a forward earnings basis considering their long established and very well proven growth rate.

[peat]

Brains anecdote seems to indicate a certain amount of price flexibility at the good end. Perhaps OCA will maximise this aspect and costs will be less critical to success. Of course some discipline but I just that sometimes you have to spend more than say an industry average to sustain premium quality and branding. Location not so important in this case either...
Quality lingers.

Mav, a nod is as good as a wink anywhere though its a lot easier to get caught with trails these days, so the rumours will spread but only the well and truly disconnected can have any hope of getting away with it.
Back in the old days when I first worked in the stockbroking trade it wasnt even illegal. All those printed contract notes out in the back office got seen by a lot of people haha.

[Brain]

Nice feed back Brain, thanks for posting.
Yes, once you've visited OCAs Sands(and others ) you can clearly see their style with the premium makeovers they are all about , and the areas they are in.
By any chance do you or your friends know how many units were sold and under contract (or still available) and the sale price groups they fall into, they have 3 rates. And if you do know any of this what was the date.

Sorry Maverick I don’t know the answers to your questions for sure because I didn’t want to grill the sales Manager which is what I would wind up doing to get accurate answers.
My impression is that probably nearly half of the independent units are sold or under contract and probably evenly distributed in the price tiers. I have no idea about the occupancy of the care suites.

we visited 2 days ago.

I guess my key takeaway is that this place is classy. It has an energy about it being located close to the beach and shopping centre. Many of the places we visited did not have this energy they had the feeling of this is where people come to die. Not the case with the Sands.

If OCA can continue to do this type of development they will be developing a great brand. Happy to be a shareholder.