OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Maverick]

Thanks for the response Brain. Just for fun I put your 50% Sand apartments sold into the s/sheets. I fully understand your figure is just an impression and very rough. It is a little less than sales I had extrapolated from last known info given by OCA in September.
I have also applied this new, lower sales rate to their other building currently selling down ,Meadowbank stage 4.
The updated result from Brains guess is HY1 profit of 31M , apply a PE of 13.5 and the share price should be $1.38
I have been predicting, using the extrapolated sales rates from actual known sales back in September, the share price under the same conditions would be $1.50.
So lots of share price appreciation ahead either way.

These HY1 profit forcasts includes the care side profit of the business as being flat.

The problem with waiting for Macca to finish their exit, waiting for more "proof" the care costs are under control and waiting more years to financials to look back on is that the share price will have also adjusted upwards accordingly. I think ARV is a good example of this as far as share price growth and time taken to get market acceptance goes.

Its hard to imagine being able to buy OCA at $1.02 ever again. New share holders now have to pay an extra 15% to get on board.

[Baa_Baa]

Weekly chart, log scale. Technical breakout this week from longish term resistance, now support. Trend line breakouts Oct & Nov confirmed. Not too late to get some, $1.21-$1.23 should provide stern price resistance. Break up through there ATH has blue skies above.

Enjoy

[winner69]

Weekly chart, log scale. Technical breakout this week from longish term resistance, now support. Trend line breakouts Oct & Nov confirmed. Not too late to get some, $1.21-$1.23 should provide stern price resistance. Break up through there ATH has blue skies above.

Enjoy

Love this talk of ATH and blue skies

I reckon 2020 will be Oceania's year

Not $20.20 share price but $2.20 by Christmas next year will do

[Beagle]

If there was deep value at the current price like some here are suggesting multiple parties including private equity would be talking to Macca's and OCA's board about a takeover instead of MET. We're still 2 years away at least from this company being 50/50 new business model with ORA based care v old model which has more cost leaks than a sieve.

I hope it is $2.20 by Christmas 2020 because if it is SUM will be ~ $15.

I think the ideal time for Macca's to dump their remaining ~ 250 million shares is when shareholders have their cash in hand from the MET takeover. There will be a lot of money looking for a new home in the sector at that point.

[winner69]

If there was deep value at the current price like some here are suggesting multiple parties including private equity would be talking to Macca's and OCA's board about a takeover instead of MET. We're still 2 years away at least from this company being 50/50 new business model with ORA based care v old model which has more cost leaks than a sieve.

I hope it is $2.20 by Christmas 2020 because if it is SUM will be ~ $15.

I think the ideal time for Macca's to dump their remaining ~ 250 million shares is when shareholders have their cash in hand from the MET takeover. There will be a lot of money looking for a new home in the sector at that point.

Don’t be so down on Oceania and spoil the excitement we are having - it’s christmas after all.

Interesting NZ Superfund’s 20% of MET would be enough (with a bit of change) to take Macquarie 40% odd of OCA ...hmm

[trader_jackson]

If there was deep value at the current price like some here are suggesting multiple parties including private equity would be talking to Macca's and OCA's board about a takeover instead of MET. We're still 2 years away at least from this company being 50/50 new business model with ORA based care v old model which has more cost leaks than a sieve.

I hope it is $2.20 by Christmas 2020 because if it is SUM will be ~ $15.

I think the ideal time for Macca's to dump their remaining ~ 250 million shares is when shareholders have their cash in hand from the MET takeover. There will be a lot of money looking for a new home in the sector at that point.

... and ARV will be at least $4

[Beagle]

... and ARV will be at least $4

and of course RYM will be...$30 Seriously though, it should be a good year for this sector in 2020 and I see no reason why well established companies with a proven track record of growth should be trading below the median level of the NZX50 of about 19 PE.

ARV already about there, maybe $2 next year, SUM should attain $10 in 2020, MET should get taken over and the acquirer will be getting a genuine bargain at ~ $7.25 and OCA should do well too if they can show there is no further ongoing erosion in the profitability of their core care services, maybe $1.40 next year.
RYM already on very stretched multiples but the overseas insto's love them so who knows, it might crack $20 in 2020

Winner tells me its nearly Christmas so I put my charitable hat on speaking of those price targets except of course MET and SUM which are a given and probably very conservative

[winner69]

OCA been a dog stock most of the year

Probably why this is a headline in the SMH

Christmas cancelled at the millionaires' factory

Last week, as workers across varying industries were gifted Christmas hampers, gingerbread houses and bottles of bubbles some staff at Macquarie Bank finished up the year with, well, nothing.

[LAC]

There’s a few on here that go with the wind, within 12 months, OCA is the best thing since sliced bread, then it’s crap then back to it being the bees kneez. SUM was the best business of them all, then they can’t sell stock they built, now they going to be worth a gazzillion dollars a share in the next 12 months. MET and ARV never in the race, now they are...
You guys should quit it aye, there are some young traders on here that will believe the nonesense that is put out because they don’t know how to DYOR. So please think about them when you put out “cr@p”.

[Beagle]

OCA been a dog stock most of the year

Probably why this is a headline in the SMH

Christmas cancelled at the millionaires' factory

Last week, as workers across varying industries were gifted Christmas hampers, gingerbread houses and bottles of bubbles some staff at Macquarie Bank finished up the year with, well, nothing.

Not enough deals done eh. They'll be anxious to do a deal next year on OCA and book a nice profit to generate their usual lavish Christmas bonus.
Look out for a full 250 million share dump on OCA in 2020. What price to get that many shares placed ?