OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Davexl]

A ‘target price’ of $1.26 implies who set that target only values it $1.12/$1.15 today

How do you come up with the $1.12/$1.15 figure?

[Davexl]

If Maccas last share dump gives any guidance, then don't worry about not getting an offer now - you might get in a couple of weeks the opportunity to buy the shares cheaper on market than the "well connected" people buy them now ;

From memory - SP dropped after the last dump roughly 10% below the offer price, i.e. there might be some bargains floating around at $1.10 come next month or so ...

Discl: holding (though I did some "portfolio management" around 130). Might buy some more back if & when above happens ..

Thanks for the heads up BP...

[Beagle]

How do you come up with the $1.12/$1.15 figure?

Most equity investors are chasing annual returns of at least 12% on risk capital. $1.26 - 12% = $1.11 plus 4-5 cents in divvies, fair value is about $1.15 now, which coincidentally is where I see it. $1.20 looks like an exceptionally good deal...for Macquirie...probably just as well they fudged the books with tax credits to make it look like 17% earnings growth and do all this at a time of year when people are just getting back from holiday and hope most don't notice the creative accounting. It certainly went right over the head of Snow Leopard so if he's your average investor no wonder Macquarie can do a creative sale job on most others.

[Davexl]

Most equity investors are chasing annual returns of at least 12% on risk capital. $1.26 - 12% = $1.11 plus 4-5 cents in divvies, fair value is about $1.15 now, which coincidentally is where I see it. $1.20 looks like an exceptionally good deal...for Macquirie...probably just as well they fudged the books with tax credits to make it look like 17% earnings growth and do all this at a time of year when people are just getting back from holiday and hope most don't notice the creative accounting. It certainly went right over the head of Snow Leopard so if he's your average investor no wonder Macquarie can do a creative sale job on most others.

Thanks Beagle - appreciate the insight...

[winner69]

How do you come up with the $1.12/$1.15 figure?

Usually analysts ‘targets’ are what they expect the share price to be in say 12 months time.

So assuming they expect say a 10% return that implies $1.14 today

Haven’t seen this particular report yet ...so can’t say what their actual valuation is.

[Balance]

I couldn't agree more. Further, they will be well aware of how sales at the various villages have gone in just over 8 weeks of the key selling period of summer since the half year report date of 30 November 2019 but are "rather conveniently" keeping that information to themselves. This dog is definitely not getting on the other side of a transaction and swimming with that big shark, once bitten twice shy and I'm staying well clear !

Macquarie Bank is dumping as they know the MET takeover euphoria will not last for OCA.

OCA is a typical Macquarie structured investment - buy a few unrelated assets in an industry, put in heavily incentivized management (as in millionaires' factory), load the investment vehicle up with debt, put in some 'creative' accounting and then, sell down to the eager punters out there.

[Davexl]

Macquarie Bank is dumping as they know the MET takeover euphoria will not last for OCA.

OCA is a typical Macquarie structured investment - buy a few unrelated assets in an industry, put in heavily incentivized management (as in millionaires' factory), load the investment vehicle up with debt, put in some 'creative' accounting and then, sell down to the eager punters out there.

Do you think the heavily incentivised management comment applies to OCA in this case, it appears cost control may not have been their strong suit?
Macquarie sounds like another 'backer' to totally avoid at this point. Thanks W69 & Balance for your comments. Am trying not to make 'mistakes' but failing badly ATM.

[winner69]

Do you think the heavily incentivised management comment applies to OCA in this case, it appears cost control may not have been their strong suit?
Macquarie sounds like another 'backer' to totally avoid at this point. Thanks W69 & Balance for your comments. Am trying not to make 'mistakes' but failing badly ATM.

ATM might be the stock for you seeing your mentioned it.....good omen

[Davexl]

ATM might be the stock for you seeing your mentioned it.....good omen

You're kidding right? with Coronavirus hanging over the market? ATM as in 'at the moment'. Would've thought FPH would make more sense, but I need the divvies.

[Beagle]

Macquarie Bank is dumping as they know the MET takeover euphoria will not last for OCA.

OCA is a typical Macquarie structured investment - buy a few unrelated assets in an industry, put in heavily incentivized management (as in millionaires' factory), load the investment vehicle up with debt, put in some 'creative' accounting and then, sell down to the eager punters out there.

Rinse and repeat.