OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Bjauck]

...
I have edited quite a number of my posts since the result announcement to correct them but I still hold a number of reservations regarding OCA and have left those in the posts for anyone that's interested to go back and have a look....

Chapeau! Not many posters would do as you have done. And thanks for taking the trouble to retrospectively edit.

[Beagle]

No tax is paid on property gains. Tax is paid on profits arising from running villages and care services. Tax not that straight forward but gives a feel for how profitable or not villages/care are.

So look at the reported tax expense to get a rough idea

ARV paid $0.7m tax in H1 sort of saying they made a few million from villages/care
RYM paid $7.4m tax in H1 - maybe $25m profit from villages/care
SUM got a small tax credit in H1 suggesting they sort of break even on villages / care
OCA got a $8m tax credit in H1. Looking at their tax reconciliation it looks like they LOST $15m in six months on day to day running of villages and care facilities.

Rough and ready way of looking at it but I reckon a pretty good way

Its turns out the rough and ready, what has the NAV gone up by does sort the wheat out from the chaff. NAV, (which is not NTA to be clear but includes other matters detailed in the accounts) captures absolutely everything in the way of gains for the period. It went up 1 cent after paying 2.6 cents in dividends so their total gain for the half year inclusive of all property revaluations, gain from recognizing deferred tax losses as an asset, absolutely everything is 1 cent plus 2.6 cents = total gain of 3.6 cents for the 6 month period. If we're kind and said they will make 4.4 cents total gain in the second half we get total comprehensive income of 8 cents per share.

By way of comparison:-
Using the same approach in 2018 according to total income reporting (IFRS) SUM made 97 cents per share and in 2017 $1.10 per share.

[Balance]

Hmmmm - watching the underwriters work the market to get rid of stock?

[winner69]

Oca report So many different profit numbers no wonder beagle is confused

The new man will probably add a few more .....maybe a plan to make things hard to understand.

That new CFO was at Jardens the time OCA was floated and seemed to have play a major role in getting it done.

Several years piloting the ship he once floated

[percy]

[QUOTE=winner69;788540]Oca report So many different profit numbers no wonder beagle is confused

Luckily for us you and Snow Leopard understood them,straight away...

[LAC]

Last time Macquarie sold down the share price jumped more than 10 cents

Might see 150 by Easter

**rolling eyes ....Sigh**

[Beagle]

NAV up just 1 cent, add back dividend paid during the period and you get total comprehensive change in value of just 3.5 cents per share. Ouch !!
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...503/315683.pdf

Underlying earnings are nowhere near what Mav was hoping for and even undershot my more conservative estimate.

Sales at Sands and Meadowbank are only just meeting expectations by the look of it. (Those without sea views will be much harder to sell at the Sands in my opinion).
Care earnings from their established business model continue to deteriorate as I predicted due to increased labour costs.

First impressions, I am really quite underwhelmed. Costs keep rising at a fast rate and I continue to believe this is a company that has at best, very average discipline when it comes to internal control systems around cost.

Disc: Don't own and not intending to buy.
Good luck to holders.

[QUOTE=percy;788543]

Luckily for us you and Snow Leopard understood them,straight away...

To be fair, First impressions, clearly marked as "At First Glance" posted before the market opened and before anyone else had commented on the result summed the overall situation up very well.

[Valiant]

Its turns out the rough and ready, what has the NAV gone up by does sort the wheat out from the chaff. NAV, (which is not NTA to be clear but includes other matters detailed in the accounts) captures absolutely everything in the way of gains for the period. It went up 1 cent after paying 2.6 cents in dividends so their total gain for the half year inclusive of all property revaluations, gain from recognizing deferred tax losses as an asset, absolutely everything is 1 cent plus 2.6 cents = total gain of 3.6 cents for the 6 month period. If we're kind and said they will make 4.4 cents total gain in the second half we get total comprehensive income of 8 cents per share.

By way of comparison:-
Using the same approach in 2018 according to total income reporting (IFRS) SUM made 97 cents per share and in 2017 $1.10 per share.

Thanks Winner & Beagle for the responses. I'm trying to understand why OCA's costs are so much higher than other companies who are in arguably the same game as most people are referring to this lack of cost control as the reason why they're not performing well. OCA have one of, if not the highest development margin at the moment (did I read 36%) so they're performing pretty well in this respect.

Based on Winner's research it looks like no ones really making money from providing care services and its just the rest of the business (property revaluation gains) that drive profit. If so, and OCA want to continue onto the 70/30 split it doesn't appear much is going to change.

[forest]

Thanks Winner & Beagle for the responses. I'm trying to understand why OCA's costs are so much higher than other companies who are in arguably the same game as most people are referring to this lack of cost control as the reason why they're not performing well. OCA have one of, if not the highest development margin at the moment (did I read 36%) so they're performing pretty well in this respect.

Based on Winner's research it looks like no ones really making money from providing care services and its just the rest of the business (property revaluation gains) that drive profit. If so, and OCA want to continue onto the 70/30 split it doesn't appear much is going to change.

I think you find in time to come that OCA will be making profits on their care services. But what is confusing is that in time to come care service fees are close to break even. However the profit component will likely be captured in the deferred management fees of the caresuite. That how understand their model.

[Snow Leopard]

To be fair, First impressions, clearly marked as "At First Glance" posted before the market opened and before anyone else had commented on the result summed the overall situation up very well.

I wss going to post a picture of a Snow Leopard laughing itself silly but here is todays Calvin & Hobbes instead: